[Politics] The 2024 US Election - Trump v Harris

[Withdean South Stand]

The higher the turnout, the better it is for the Democrats. That's my general sense - Trump's people are spread out a mile wide, but an inch thick (no offence intended!). I think Democratic support is going to blow away the minority of voters who are Trumpnomatterwhat.

Fate would have it that I'm going to be watching the election night coverage with a big right winger, a passionate Trump fan. I am very confident I'm going to enjoying the coverage - but it won't all be plain sailing. A two horse race always gives hope to the one who shouldn't even be in the race.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Nothing says 'no-one's got a facking clue' like posts from people saying Trump is definitely going to win, closely followed by further posts saying Harris is a shoo-in!

 

[Withdean South Stand]

Nothing says 'no-one's got a facking clue' like posts from people saying Trump is definitely going to win, closely followed by further posts saying Harris is a shoo-in!

It's just a question of turnout in my opinion. Harris has everything logical on her side, but you just don't know if people are motivated to vote for her or not. Trump's people are incredibly well motivated and the Republican party is much better at turning out their vote. Republican support is baked in and a huge number of their voters will not admit/talk about it publically, which makes the polling tougher.

If the Democrats get out the vote, they'll win. Georgia's early voting numbers are incredible and it's logical to believe that's in net favour of the Democrats, but it might not be and it might not be enough proportionally to win the state overall. I hope it is, and I hope that Pennsylvania trends towards Harris as well because that's game over.

If Trump becomes president again, he won't see out his term. He'll either be forced out, die or resign the presidency in disgrace and JD Vance will end up 48th president. Which would be a total mess.

 

[bhafc99]

Fate would have it that I'm going to be watching the election night coverage with a big right winger, a passionate Trump fan. I am very confident I'm going to enjoying the coverage - but it won't all be plain sailing. A two horse race always gives hope to the one who shouldn't even be in the race.

Not a two-horse race for MAGAs though. In fact it’s only even a race if Trump wins:
- Trump wins: fair election, 100% legit, not one single fake vote.
- Trump loses: stolen election, 100% dodgy, not one single true vote.

 

[peterward]

Bout time, its bloody true.

Kamala Harris agrees that Donald Trump is a fascist: ‘Yes, we can say that’

Vice-president responds to suggestion by interviewer Charlamagne Tha God that Republican rival represents fascism

www.theguardian.com

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

It's just a question of turnout in my opinion. Harris has everything logical on her side, but you just don't know if people are motivated to vote for her or not. Trump's people are incredibly well motivated and the Republican party is much better at turning out their vote. Republican support is baked in and a huge number of their voters will not admit/talk about it publically, which makes the polling tougher.

If the Democrats get out the vote, they'll win. Georgia's early voting numbers are incredible and it's logical to believe that's in net favour of the Democrats, but it might not be and it might not be enough proportionally to win the state overall. I hope it is, and I hope that Pennsylvania trends towards Harris as well because that's game over.

If Trump becomes president again, he won't see out his term. He'll either be forced out, die or resign the presidency in disgrace and JD Vance will end up 48th president. Which would be a total mess.

If they enact Project 2025 Shady Vance wouldn't be President but Der Fuhrer.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Radio 5 did a good piece live from Georgia today (the state, not the (state of a) nation).

Lots of dull sensible folk declaring a lukewarm preference for Trump, based around fairly nuanced economical considerations, notwithstanding the man's nutty utterances.

I could easily fulminate about how could anyone ever consider voting for that disgrace of a man, but millions recently voted for Farage in the UK, and Farage is much worse than Trump as far as I can see. So I will not bother troubling my echo chamber.

It seems that 'vote Trump and get Vance' seems to be a popular mantra for many there.

I expected Trump to beat Hilary, and expect he will beat Harris. Sad, but there it is.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Bout time, its bloody true.

Kamala Harris agrees that Donald Trump is a fascist: ‘Yes, we can say that’

Vice-president responds to suggestion by interviewer Charlamagne Tha God that Republican rival represents fascism

www.theguardian.com

Oh dear. I suspect that has probably just lost her 5 million votes. Enough to swing it.

Does she really think such an utterance will persuade Republican voters to switch sides, or entice floating votes away from Trump?

Have she no political nous?

 

[Commander]

Bout time, its bloody true.

Kamala Harris agrees that Donald Trump is a fascist: ‘Yes, we can say that’

Vice-president responds to suggestion by interviewer Charlamagne Tha God that Republican rival represents fascism

www.theguardian.com

It isn't true, and I think that is a big mistake from her.

 

[US Seagull]

Oh dear. I suspect that has probably just lost her 5 million votes. Enough to swing it.

Does she really think such an utterance will persuade Republican voters to switch sides, or entice floating votes away from Trump?

Have she no political nous?

FFS - Trump calls her not only worse, but also the same. Repeatedly. Even yesterday where he confusingly called her a communist, a Marxist and a fascist.

I guess he gets a pass since he has no idea what any of the words mean?

 

[Commander]

FFS - Trump calls her not only worse, but also the same. Repeatedly. Even yesterday where he confusingly called her a communist, a Marxist and a fascist.

I guess he gets a pass since he has no idea what any of the words mean?

I think that is exactly the point.

 

[sparkie]

Pleasingly, it seems early voter turnout is much, much higher than polling expected.

I hope that means a lot more "Stop Trump" voters are voting, but you never know

 

[US Seagull]

 

[Withdean South Stand]

It isn't true, and I think that is a big mistake from her.

Yes it's true, and no it's not a mistake. What more evidence do you need before you'll accept Trump is a fascist, whether he understands what it means or not, he is.

 

[Bob!]

It isn't true, and I think that is a big mistake from her.

Yet Trumps utterances are true, and not mistakes?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

There's a lot of commentary in US, including republican pollsters, that many of the GOP backed polls are vastly overinflated...... and for one specific reason.

When Harris wins they're going to claim election fraud again, and try another all or nothing coup.

Yeah, there was a recent poll of Pennsylvania by a reputable pollster that was sponsored by a Trump-supporting organisation. The first did the poll and the second applied a Likely-voter screen, to determine who was likely to vote, and it came in Trump +1, which was the headline.

However - the Likely voter screen that they applied reduced the number of Philadelphia voters in the sample from 115 to just 12, a projected 9% turnout. In Philadelphia. One of the most Democratic parts of the country. Philadelphia voters will make up over 10% of the PA vote, but here they were just 1% of this poll. (The result from all registered voters in this poll was Harris+4)

There is laughable polling like this everywhere, and yet this poll is included within the polling averages.

 

[Withdean South Stand]

I expected Trump to beat Hilary, and expect he will beat Harris. Sad, but there it is.

I think the difference is that this time, voting for Trump means something. In 2016, Hillary was incredibly and historically unpopular and Trump was the "change" candidate. It could have been brilliant, there was a lot of potential and the economy was good so in theory, a businessman empowering other businessmen could have been amazing for the country.

But it wasn't. And there was a deadly pandemic which was handled outrageously badly. And all the obvious racism from the office. The failed attempts to pass legislation. The awful response to natural disasters. Everything he did in his day to day, really.

There is real enthusiasm for Kamala's campaign and for Democrats across the board, partly because of how extreme the Republicans are on the big issues. But partly because of who Kamala is, what she represents and who she can entice to vote. It's totally different in my opinion and there's no excuse for Trump winning again (and I think he wants to win even less than he did in 2016!).

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

FFS - Trump calls her not only worse, but also the same. Repeatedly. Even yesterday where he confusingly called her a communist, a Marxist and a fascist.

I guess he gets a pass since he has no idea what any of the words mean?

Yes. It isn't fair, is it?

 

[peterward]

It isn't true, and I think that is a big mistake from her.

I beg to disagree. Trumps rhetoric, desires for autocracy and using national guard against any dissenting "enemies within" opponents has all the hallmarks of fascism.

Whether that's a mistake to verbalise it, I dunno

 

[herecomesaregular]

Yes. It isn't fair, is it?

One of life's eternal issues. Do you continue to play fair, by the rules, with logic, argument and dignity..... or do you stoop down to the level of the monkey playing against you and throw shit around. Especially when many others seem to love this weird, crazed old ape.