[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[schmunk]

I'm not talking about bookies, but exchanges which are a marketplace open to all. The only thing that moves the market are the participants.

All exchanges do is open source the laying of bets to the general public in a direct capacity, rather than the indirect laying through the bookmaker who set the odds based on the general public's backing of other options. It doesn't change the fundamental operation of the market.

 

[Bozza]

I would argue turnout levels, turnout demographics (age, sex, previous affiliation etc) and things that are actual cold hard facts are better to be extrapolated from than some of Elon Musk's rich mates chucking £4m on specifically to help push a narrative.

To answer the second question, it's very difficult but I would put wide scale poll of polls as MORE reliable than betting, which as mentioned above is much more open to abuse for nefarious means (IMO).

Also, a poll is "What will you do yourself?" meanwhile betting is "what do you think will happen collectively?".

None of those things will be known for some time yet, so are you saying that currently, as we sit here, there are absolutely no available indicators of the probability of outcome?

If that's the case, then the betting market is currently the best indicator of the likely outcome. Note: to be the relative best, something doesn't actually have to be very good in absolute terms.

@Papa Lazarou is a better pool player than me, but he's unlikely to make much of a wave in the world championships.

The thing is - if Trump does win - it doesn't mean the betting markets were right. If Harris wins, it doesn't mean the betting markets were wrong. I think this is where those who don't really understand betting lose the nuance.

The betting market only reflects probability at a moment in time based on all information/data available to market participants. If Harris does win, the markets will hav e gradually shifted in her favour over time. At the point she is declared the winner, the betting markets will have her at dead-cert odds.

 

[crodonilson]

The thing many commentators miss in these elections - both sides of the pond - is that people are often voting AGAINST something rather than FOR something. The reason BoJo did so well is that Labour somehow managed to field an even worse leader. Starmer won because the Tories were a complete car crash. A lot of Americans detested Hilary Clinton. My worry in this instance is that many Americans are unhappy with the Biden administration/recent years of Democrat leadership, particularly the economy, and that’s why Trump will win.

This is a very salient point, and it may be why Biden won last time, I don't think he was an outstanding candidate but people were tired of Trump and Covid probably played into his hands too as the electorate were always going to punish the incumbent after a thoroughly miserable year.

I don't know how much impact it had yesterday as I can't believe there are many undecided's remaining but I thought Kamala's closing star-studded event was a serious miscalculation, I recall Clinton doing similar in 2016 and Trump got the message out while she's mixing with all the celebrities gushing about here I'm here with the working people at his closing campaign events, and that message really resonated.

 

[Bozza]

All exchanges do is open source the laying of bets to the general public in a direct capacity, rather than the indirect laying through the bookmaker who set the odds based on the general public's backing of other options. It doesn't change the fundamental operation of the market.

Yes, yes it does.

A bookie will set their odds to suit their position. They may, for example, shorten the odds they offer for a market outcome to reduce bet volume coming their way. If another bookie is offering better odds, more punters will go to that other bookie. In extreme cases a bookie may refuse to take any more bets on a given outcome.

Anyway, for the reason in my last post, I'm going to stop Betting Chat now.

Suffice to say, betting markets will be something I keep an eye on as the night and following days go on. As was the case with the Brexit referendum, market momentum will indicate whether this is going to be a good outcome or a bad outcome.

 

[aolstudios]

I don't get this need from people for 'personalities' or 'characters' in positions of power. Not just in politics, the same goes for football, business, music, whatever.

If someone is good at what they do, just let them get on with it

This ^
In spades

 

[aftershavedave]

Is this thread closed??

 

[crodonilson]

Yes, yes it does.

A bookie will set their odds to suit their position. They may, for example, shorten the odds they offer for a market outcome to reduce bet volume coming their way. If another bookie is offering better odds, more punters will go to that other bookie. In extreme cases a bookie may refuse to take any more bets on a given outcome.

Anyway, for the reason in my last post, I'm going to stop Betting Chat now.

Suffice to say, betting markets will be something I keep an eye on as the night and following days go on. As was the case with the Brexit referendum, market momentum will indicate whether this is going to be a good outcome or a bad outcome.

I do recall though in the last election early results coming through were good for Trump and I'm sure there will be some data to back this up but he shortened quite considerably into about 1.6/1.7 range IIRC from being outsider before election day certainly before I went to work on the day after the election so 7am UK time so early results and shifts in the markets even early tomorrow won't be the be all and end all.

EDIT: Below link shows how much the odds fluctuated in the 24 hours from about now last time.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/2020-us-election-on-betfair-betting-review-the-race-that-broke-all-records-120924-200.html

 

[Bozza]

I do recall though in the last election early results coming through were good for Trump and I'm sure there will be some data to back this up but he shortened quite considerably into about 1.6/1.7 range IIRC from being outsider before election day certainly before I went to work on the day after the election so 7am UK time so early results and shifts in the markets even early tomorrow won't be the be all and end all.

EDIT: Below link shows how much the odds fluctuated in the 24 hours from about now last time.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/2020-us-election-on-betfair-betting-review-the-race-that-broke-all-records-120924-200.html

Exactly - the odds only reflect probability at a moment in time.

As more information becomes available then the odds change.

No betting market accepts a bet on an absolute dead-cert sure thing.

 

[peterward]

Just watching CNN and their swing state election wall (assuming all red/blue states fall to normal sides).

Pennsylvania is absolutely key.

Of the 7 swing states, if Harris wins the blue wall, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania she has the minimum 270 and wins. and in all previous recent elections those 3 have fallen to same side who wins.

However, 2 of the earliest states likely to declare are Georgia and N Carolina, both with smallish Trump leads in polls.
If he wins those 2 as polls narrowly expect and then just Pennsylvania also, he is at minimum 270 and wins.

Pennsylvania isnt likely to declare for over 24 hours+ plus, and long after polls close in Georgia, N Carolina which will be reasonably soon tonight..... so its going to be super nervy few hours unless Harris can flip one of Georgia, N Carolina. If Trump wins both, its Pennsylvania or bust for democrats.

 

[US Seagull]

I'd missed this. Trump has lost the white supremacist vote?

Conservative influencer slams Donald Trump supporters: "It is a cult"

Nick Fuentes is among several conservative influencers and activists who once supported Trump but are now refusing to endorse him.

www.newsweek.com

Also "Conservative Influencer" is a hell of a way to describe the second most famous (after David Duke) white supremacist in the country.

 

[US Seagull]

This has got to be gaslighting, right?

Kamala Harris gets surprising support from alt-right's Richard Spencer

Spencer endorsed the vice president in a social media post on Friday.

www.newsweek.com

This is the "unite the right" guy with the Charlottesville, VA rally with the torches and khakis.

 

[US Seagull]

DA in Philly: "f around and find out"

 

[schmunk]

I'd missed this. Trump has lost the white supremacist vote?

Conservative influencer slams Donald Trump supporters: "It is a cult"

Nick Fuentes is among several conservative influencers and activists who once supported Trump but are now refusing to endorse him.

www.newsweek.com

Also "Conservative Influencer" is a hell of a way to describe the second most famous (after David Duke) white supremacist in the country.

I'd not heard of him, but after a quick flick through Wikipedia - what a weirdo...

Nick Fuentes - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[AstroSloth]

Kid Rock endorse Trump, never heard of him but sounds like a nice chap

Old post but this sums up Kid Rock

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Yes I can, but I don't take the threat seriously. And countries in NATO should pay the required amount.

Most countries are, and some are only just under the 2%.

Which countries in the Nato alliance are paying their fair share on defence?

The alliance expects each member nation to spend at least 2% of its gross domestic product on defence, but plenty are falling short.

www.forcesnews.com

 

[RandyWanger]

Old post but this sums up Kid Rock

View attachment 191881

Bawitdaba is a banger! Also the one with Eminem, f**koff. I'm sure he made another good one.

 

[Mellotron]

The betting market only reflects probability at a moment in time based on all information/data available to market participants. If Harris does win, the markets will hav e gradually shifted in her favour over time. At the point she is declared the winner, the betting markets will have her at dead-cert odds.

You keep ignoring that betting markets in this instance are very very likely to have been intentionally swung to suit a narrative.

Why is this?

 

[schmunk]

Bawitdaba is a banger! Also the one with Eminem, f**koff. I'm sure he made another good one.

Except the best bit, the chorus hook, is ripped wholesale from Rappers Delight...

 

[Bodian]

Democratic volunteers from NYC head to Penn to help get out the vote -my cousins and nephew joining them

Trump will soon be spinning this as voters being bussed in....

 

[knocky1]

Just got my USA and Canada jigsaw out. Finished Canada. I do it to try and learn the State Capitals. Always forget half of them within a few weeks.
I've placed Harrisburg, Lansing, Madison, Carson City, Phoenix, Atlanta and Raleigh. Stuck in Des Moines just in case. Juneau stays as it's a corner piece.