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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .










Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,274
Back in Sussex
You keep ignoring that betting markets in this instance are very very likely to have been intentionally swung to suit a narrative.

Why is this?
I'm not ignoring it - I've covered it already.

I'm not sure it's happening, and I don't believe "but look at the betting market!!!111!!!!!" will be used to counter a positive Harris result - they will have far more attractive attack vectors they will be going to.
 






fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
1,718
in a house


pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,684
1730825448370.png


Odds changed a bit in the last hour...
 








US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,632
Cleveland, OH
If they haven't even started counting the votes how would he know?
He's talking about party affiliation. Of course, that doesn't mean they actually voted for Trump:


  • Voted by mail (and ballots returned):
    • Republicans: 989,822
    • Democrats: 1,182,944
    • Other: 61,248
    • No party affiliation: 600,541
  • Early voting:
    • Republicans: 2,549,779
    • Democrats: 1,511,82
    • Other: 135,197
    • No party affiliation: 1,158,025
So it does look like around 1 million more Republicans have voted, but a) there are about 1 million more registered Republicans in the state anyway, b) just because you are registered Republican, doesn't mean you'll vote Republican and c) Florida isn't a swing state (although some polls did so it surprisingly close).
 














Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,072
Goldstone










Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
31,262
I'm taking all of this betting market chatter with a pinch of salt. I think Harris has finished the campaign with energy, she's been largely gaffe-free, she's been positive, she's wheeled out some big guns to support her (Oprah, Swift, Beyonce, Gaga, John Bon Jovi, Springsteen), whereas most commentators have said Trump's energy levels have been low, he looks and sounds tired.

It would be a delicious irony if it all came down to Pennsylvania, if Harris won by a few thousand votes and it was the 400,000 voters originating from "the floating island of garbage" that won it for her.
 




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