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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.8%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 151 39.3%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 212 55.2%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 18 4.7%

  • Total voters
    384
  • This poll will close: .


sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,217
Hove
As the day goes on I am getting more and more worried that the Putin/Trump ticket will win this.

I am dreading the results coming through.
 




Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
15,894
But that was my first point: I'm not, and I can see no evidence that anyone else is.

But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability, so as someone who is #TeamHarris, I can't help feeling worried seeing Trump is currently a warm favourite.

Hopefully, that will change as more data/information/exit polls come into the public domain, shaping the market in favour of Harris.
I guess that's my point, because I don't.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,424
Brighton
But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability
My quibble was with the fact I think you referred to it as the most reliable indicator of what's going to happen, which I disagree very strongly with, especially when we know there is a group looking to skew it in one direction intentionally.
 


schmunk

Second time lucky?
Jan 19, 2018
10,295
Mid mid mid Sussex
But that was my first point: I'm not, and I can see no evidence that anyone else is.

But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability, so as someone who is #TeamHarris, I can't help feeling worried seeing Trump is currently a warm favourite.

Hopefully, that will change as more data/information/exit polls come into the public domain, shaping the market in favour of Harris.
Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.

However:

Who places bets? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated*

Who votes for Trump and not Harris? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated





* disregarding my post above. Ahem.
 


pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,673
What I meant was that I can't understand how people can take odds seriously when they fluctuate massively on a seemingly daily basis.
Not really the case in this instance though. Apart from a recent bumb for Harris they have been drifting Trump's way for weeks.

1730817693108.png


And

1730817854492.png
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,096
Back in Sussex
My quibble was with the fact I think you referred to it as the most reliable indicator of what's going to happen, which I disagree very strongly with, especially when we know there is a group looking to skew it in one direction intentionally.

What is the most reliable indicator of outcome then?

Edit: And, what is that most reliable indicator of outcome currently stating as the probability of each outcome happening?
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,096
Back in Sussex
Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.

However:

Who places bets? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated*

Who votes for Trump and not Harris? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated





* disregarding my post above. Ahem.
I'm not talking about bookies, but exchanges which are a marketplace open to all. The only thing that moves the market are the participants.
 


nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,413
Gods country fortnightly
Not really the case in this instance though. Apart from a recent bumb for Harris they have been drifting Trump's way for weeks.

View attachment 191874
Trump share price up 12% yesterday, 14% today. What piece of data specifically is saying Trump is a shoe in?

What I do know is if you can move the markets and things go the other way there's a lot of money to be made

Meanwhile trending on X #harriswalz2024inalandslide

Things are nuts...
 




aftershavedave

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
7,096
as 10cc say, not in hove
Here's a betting cert: open another US Election thread and the original "owner" will have it closed within a couple of hours. NSC is a bizarre place these days, Oh for the days of sandwiches
 




Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,704
Democratic volunteers from NYC head to Penn to help get out the vote -my cousins and nephew joining them

 




BBassic

I changed this.
Jul 28, 2011
12,984
Here's a betting cert: open another US Election thread and the original "owner" will have it closed within a couple of hours. NSC is a bizarre place these days, Oh for the days of sandwiches
It's funny the only time I even notice there's been a thread merge is when you pop up whining about it :shrug:
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,424
Brighton
What is the most reliable indicator of outcome then?

Edit: And, what is that most reliable indicator of outcome currently stating as the probability of each outcome happening?
I would argue turnout levels, turnout demographics (age, sex, previous affiliation etc) and things that are actual cold hard facts are better to be extrapolated from than some of Elon Musk's rich mates chucking £4m on specifically to help push a narrative.

To answer the second question, it's very difficult but I would put wide scale poll of polls as MORE reliable than betting, which as mentioned above is much more open to abuse for nefarious means (IMO).

Also, a poll is "What will you do yourself?" meanwhile betting is "what do you think will happen collectively?".
 






pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,673
Trump share price up 12% yesterday, 14% today. What piece of data specifically is saying Trump is a shoe in?

What I do know is if you can move the markets and things go the other way there's a lot of money to be made

Meanwhile trending on X #harriswalz2024inalandslide

Things are nuts...
Meme stocks are a different kettle of fish though, and do fluctuate much more.
 






um bongo molongo

Well-known member
Jul 26, 2004
3,046
Battersea
The thing many commentators miss in these elections - both sides of the pond - is that people are often voting AGAINST something rather than FOR something. The reason BoJo did so well is that Labour somehow managed to field an even worse leader. Starmer won because the Tories were a complete car crash. A lot of Americans detested Hilary Clinton. My worry in this instance is that many Americans are unhappy with the Biden administration/recent years of Democrat leadership, particularly the economy, and that’s why Trump will win.
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,953
Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.

However:

Who places bets? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated*

Who votes for Trump and not Harris? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated





* disregarding my post above. Ahem.
though US do not have access to betting that we assume in land of the actual free. in this case the betting markets are wide open to outside influence, not indicative of public.
 




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