I guess that's my point, because I don't.But that was my first point: I'm not, and I can see no evidence that anyone else is.
But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability, so as someone who is #TeamHarris, I can't help feeling worried seeing Trump is currently a warm favourite.
Hopefully, that will change as more data/information/exit polls come into the public domain, shaping the market in favour of Harris.
My quibble was with the fact I think you referred to it as the most reliable indicator of what's going to happen, which I disagree very strongly with, especially when we know there is a group looking to skew it in one direction intentionally.But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability
Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.But that was my first point: I'm not, and I can see no evidence that anyone else is.
But I do take betting markets as a guide to probability, so as someone who is #TeamHarris, I can't help feeling worried seeing Trump is currently a warm favourite.
Hopefully, that will change as more data/information/exit polls come into the public domain, shaping the market in favour of Harris.
Not really the case in this instance though. Apart from a recent bumb for Harris they have been drifting Trump's way for weeks.What I meant was that I can't understand how people can take odds seriously when they fluctuate massively on a seemingly daily basis.
My quibble was with the fact I think you referred to it as the most reliable indicator of what's going to happen, which I disagree very strongly with, especially when we know there is a group looking to skew it in one direction intentionally.
I'm not talking about bookies, but exchanges which are a marketplace open to all. The only thing that moves the market are the participants.Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.
However:
Who places bets? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated*
Who votes for Trump and not Harris? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated
* disregarding my post above. Ahem.
Trump share price up 12% yesterday, 14% today. What piece of data specifically is saying Trump is a shoe in?Not really the case in this instance though. Apart from a recent bumb for Harris they have been drifting Trump's way for weeks.
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It's funny the only time I even notice there's been a thread merge is when you pop up whining about itHere's a betting cert: open another US Election thread and the original "owner" will have it closed within a couple of hours. NSC is a bizarre place these days, Oh for the days of sandwiches
I would argue turnout levels, turnout demographics (age, sex, previous affiliation etc) and things that are actual cold hard facts are better to be extrapolated from than some of Elon Musk's rich mates chucking £4m on specifically to help push a narrative.What is the most reliable indicator of outcome then?
Edit: And, what is that most reliable indicator of outcome currently stating as the probability of each outcome happening?
Meme stocks are a different kettle of fish though, and do fluctuate much more.Trump share price up 12% yesterday, 14% today. What piece of data specifically is saying Trump is a shoe in?
What I do know is if you can move the markets and things go the other way there's a lot of money to be made
Meanwhile trending on X #harriswalz2024inalandslide
Things are nuts...
Nope. You are wrong.I thought like us you put an X against the candidate you want to win no? You don’t need luck surely?
Ahh that makes sense, now i know why you asked for luck seems complicatedNope. You are wrong.
You have to fill in bubbles on a FIVE PAGE ballot with 31 separate questions.
though US do not have access to betting that we assume in land of the actual free. in this case the betting markets are wide open to outside influence, not indicative of public.Betting odds are almost entirely an indicator of public sentiment, as the bookmakers move their odds constantly to keep an effective hedge and protect their margin. On that basis, the odds in favour of Trump would suggest a Trump win.
However:
Who places bets? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated*
Who votes for Trump and not Harris? Men, with a significant skew to the less-educated
* disregarding my post above. Ahem.
Yes I can, but I don't take the threat seriously. And countries in NATO should pay the required amount.Or else. Can you not see the threat?