- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,941
- Thread starter
- #8,161
probably Trump supporters - they’re not very smart - not like Trump who is ‘probably genius’.
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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
RandyWanger
Je suis rôti de boeuf
Harris is running pro Palestine ads in Michigan while simultaneously running pro Israel ads in Pennsylvania. CNN (who hate Trump) are reporting this. Maybe they think he'll win and are trying to dig themselves out of a hole.
RandyWanger
Je suis rôti de boeuf
My favourite bit of commentary so far:
"The idea that Trump is Hitler is not resonating. In 2020, he seemed more authoritarian. Now, he's surrounded by RFK, Elon, JD, Tulsi etc.. Meanwhile the dems are executing squirrels"
"The idea that Trump is Hitler is not resonating. In 2020, he seemed more authoritarian. Now, he's surrounded by RFK, Elon, JD, Tulsi etc.. Meanwhile the dems are executing squirrels"
- Nov 11, 2009
- 12,281
Professor Allan Lichtman who is claimed to be the Nostradamus of election predicting and who some cite as getting 9 of last 10 elections right, but in reality is 10/10 (called Gore in 2000 and recount blocked by Supreme court handing it to George W), has predicted Harris will win and he reaffimed that a week ago.
Doesnt use any polling, but has a system based on 13 keys, and for a challenger to win from incumbent theyd need at least 6 keys, Trump has 4
This from September
Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman
Polling ‘Nostradamus’, said to have correctly forecast since 1984 all races except Gore’s loss, says Trump on track to lose
www.theguardian.com
This 1 week ago
That list looks like a rogues gallery of Putin fans. Lol.
crodonilson
He/Him
Harris drifting like a barge on the exchanges today, something odd going on. Just piled in at 6/4 on Betfair.
Kamala, you're fired!
Kamala, you're fired!
seagullsovergrimsby
#cpfctinpotclub
- Nov 11, 2009
- 12,281
"Something odd going on" from you is an oxymoron....... but thats just Trumps rich benefactors throwing a few more dollars at the betting market, to try and give perception of winning and in anticipation for Stop the Steal 2.
crodonilson
He/Him
Fill your boots time then shirley?
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,941
- Thread starter
- #8,170
Professor Allan Lichtman who is claimed to be the Nostradamus of election predicting and who some cite as getting 9 of last 10 elections right, but in reality is 10/10 (called Gore in 2000 and recount blocked by Supreme court handing it to George W), has predicted Harris will win and he reaffimed that a week ago.
Doesnt use any polling, but has a system based on 13 keys, and for a challenger to win from incumbent theyd need at least 6 keys, Trump has 4
This from September
Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman
Polling ‘Nostradamus’, said to have correctly forecast since 1984 all races except Gore’s loss, says Trump on track to lose
This 1 week ago
Was just about to post that - I have seen his system before - it was just on Sky
US election latest: Trump and Harris make final pitches - as professor who has predicted nine of last 10 elections says he is 'sure' who will win
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will make one last frantic push for votes today with events across a handful of states. It comes as a historian who has successfully predicted nine of the last 10 elections in the US believes Kamala Harris will win the keys to the White House.
He disregards polls completely and looks at certain conditions relating to incumbent.
Indeed. Anyone who doesn't abstain from gambling should bet like they've never bet before.
nwgull
Well-known member
I’ve gone for £20 at those odds. I don’t have any particular inclination that Harris will win, but 2.5 in a two-horse race where all available metrics suggest it could go either way definitely favours the punter.
I'm seeing people interpret these numbers in both directions, to suit their inherent biases. Some suggesting that this is most of the rural vote gone and that a lot left is Urban and therefore more likely to support Harris. There's also the unknown of exactly how Independents are going to break.
It is less of an early mail in vote lead than 2020, but then Trump was actively telling his supporters to NOT vote early in 2020, and he is doing the opposite this time (because he needs a lead early on so he can declare victory again).
She's not the president.
But she's not the incumbent either
Yes but there is a distinction. It's easier to out a party than out a president. Americans like voting their presidents back in. Except Trump.
I agree with you almost entirely - but it may not be restricted to 4 years.
GOD HAS SPOKEN.
- Nov 11, 2009
- 12,281
She is in Lichtmans system, the incumbent is deemed the governing white house party rather than the individual candidate.