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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,883
The holy grail seems to be a non-biased poll ie. just an actual poll with no spin.

Is there one ?
Not sure because polls have to be financed but 538 will tell you who ran the poll, what the bias is and it’s easy enough to google from there. I tend to average out most of the polls to get a feel for which way candidates are trending but that’s as far as it goes for me personally.

Five-thirty Eight run by Nate Silver provides an aggregate of polling across a range of pollsters but his own predictions and sampling haven’t been without controversy especially since 2016-20 although personally I think he is no worse than anything else out there when it comes to predicting an election winner - there are always inherent limitations in sampling even with weighting but he was right about Biden leading the campaign into a potential big loss for the Dems earlier in the campaign.

 
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peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,265
True enough, yet still a left wing biased poll and Selzer herself has said voters could swing towards Trump on election day - the right biased Emerson poll had Trump ahead by 9 percentage points and the NYT/Siena poll has them dead heat in swing states.

( The New York Times/Siena College is also one of America's most trusted pollsters. Ranked first by 538 on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver who runs 538, ‘ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade’ so I think it could be just as credible as the Selzer poll.)

I’ve posted this previously but it is interesting Pew Research on polling accuracy

This swing state 538/ABC has me now worried again. Keep yo-yo'ing from feeling sure she will win, to shitting it that he still might. The consequences of which will be devastating.

Screenshot_20241104_105803_Chrome.jpg
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,467
Brighton
This swing state 538/ABC has me now worried again. Keep yo-yo'ing from feeling sure she will win, to shitting it that he still might. The consequences of which will be devastating.

View attachment 191805
From everything I've seen, it seems Arizona is probably locked in for Trump. but that Michigan and Wisconsin SHOULD land for Harris.

But then who the EFF knows.
 


Hotchilidog

Well-known member
Jan 24, 2009
9,119
This swing state 538/ABC has me now worried again. Keep yo-yo'ing from feeling sure she will win, to shitting it that he still might. The consequences of which will be devastating.

View attachment 191805
All within the margin of error, so basically statistical ties. Not much to see here. My gut still says Harris by more than people think. The Dems have been playing this from behind for the whole campaign. Feet are on the ground, doors are being knocked on and phones are being called, there is an energy from Democratic activists that seems to be lacking on the GOP side.

Tomorrow cannot come soon enough. Given that Iowa is one of the least populous states I'd imagine that should declare relatively early, if it even comes close to the Selzer poll (a narrow Trump win would still represent a shift) then we may be able to start making more informed predictions.
 
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Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
25,871
I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.🖕
Maybe you were right about the diversity thing. After all, whoever wins the race won't have white skin.
 








Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
25,871












bhafc99

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2003
7,452
Dubai
The holy grail seems to be a non-biased poll ie. just an actual poll with no spin.

Is there one ?
Well, the poll on this thread still has nearly 5% backing someone other than Biden or Harris on the Dem side, so… there’s that?
 








Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,883
I'm setting up my own livestream for friends and others, none here invited.🖕

In the meantime you may enjoy this on Amazon - I may watch it again myself later

 


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