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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,947
Well, the poll on this thread still has nearly 5% backing someone other than Biden or Harris on the Dem side, so… there’s that?
probably Trump supporters - they’re not very smart - not like Trump who is ‘probably genius’. :wink:
 




RandyWanger

Je suis rôti de boeuf
Mar 14, 2013
6,712
Done a Frexit, now in London
Harris is running pro Palestine ads in Michigan while simultaneously running pro Israel ads in Pennsylvania. CNN (who hate Trump) are reporting this. Maybe they think he'll win and are trying to dig themselves out of a hole.
 




peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,275
Interesting coming from Rory, who last I knew was teaching at Harvard.

I'm still not getting my hopes up though.
Professor Allan Lichtman who is claimed to be the Nostradamus of election predicting and who some cite as getting 9 of last 10 elections right, but in reality is 10/10 (called Gore in 2000 and recount blocked by Supreme court handing it to George W), has predicted Harris will win and he reaffimed that a week ago.

Doesnt use any polling, but has a system based on 13 keys, and for a challenger to win from incumbent theyd need at least 6 keys, Trump has 4

This from September


This 1 week ago

 






crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,062
Lyme Regis
Harris drifting like a barge on the exchanges today, something odd going on. Just piled in at 6/4 on Betfair.

Kamala, you're fired!
 








crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,062
Lyme Regis
"Something odd going on" from you is an oxymoron....... but thats just Trumps rich benefactors throwing a few more dollars at the betting market, to try and give perception of winning and in anticipation for Stop the Steal 2.

Fill your boots time then shirley?
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,947
Professor Allan Lichtman who is claimed to be the Nostradamus of election predicting and who some cite as getting 9 of last 10 elections right, but in reality is 10/10 (called Gore in 2000 and recount blocked by Supreme court handing it to George W), has predicted Harris will win and he reaffimed that a week ago.

Doesnt use any polling, but has a system based on 13 keys, and for a challenger to win from incumbent theyd need at least 6 keys, Trump has 4

This from September


This 1 week ago



Was just about to post that - I have seen his system before - it was just on Sky


He disregards polls completely and looks at certain conditions relating to incumbent.
 






nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,533
Manchester
I’ve gone for £20 at those odds. I don’t have any particular inclination that Harris will win, but 2.5 in a two-horse race where all available metrics suggest it could go either way definitely favours the punter.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,468
Brighton


I'm seeing people interpret these numbers in both directions, to suit their inherent biases. Some suggesting that this is most of the rural vote gone and that a lot left is Urban and therefore more likely to support Harris. There's also the unknown of exactly how Independents are going to break.

It is less of an early mail in vote lead than 2020, but then Trump was actively telling his supporters to NOT vote early in 2020, and he is doing the opposite this time (because he needs a lead early on so he can declare victory again).
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,153
Goldstone
Doesnt use any polling, but has a system based on 13 keys, and for a challenger to win from incumbent theyd need at least 6 keys, Trump has 4

But she's not the incumbent either
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,153
Goldstone
It's the incumbent party.

Yes but there is a distinction. It's easier to out a party than out a president. Americans like voting their presidents back in. Except Trump.
 


FamilyGuy

Well-known member
Jul 8, 2003
2,513
Crawley
Eurgh - did someone merge the threads? Back to this long winded dump of word salad.…well my last word salad on the subject is, if Trump gets in, we are going to have 4 years of stupidity, corruption and division. So I always say Harris is going to win, whether I believe it or not, simply as I refuse to accept the American people can be so stupid. The normalisation of Trumps behaviours are the serious issue here. Not sure what the answer is, but we can’t keep regurgitating it on clips and social media, like its acceptable.
I agree with you almost entirely - but it may not be restricted to 4 years.
 








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