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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.8%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 156 39.5%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 218 55.2%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 18 4.6%

  • Total voters
    395
  • This poll will close: .






nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,522
Manchester
I do think I remember 2020 looking pretty bleak early on to.

But maybe I'm just trying to make myself feel better.
It was, but the number of mail-in votes was unprecedented due to Covid.

Pennsylvania seems promising though. Allegheny seems to be outperforming 2020 based on 1/3rd of vote.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,441
Brighton
It was, but the number of mail-in votes was unprecedented due to Covid.

Pennsylvania seems promising though. Allegheny seems to be outperforming 2020 based on 1/3rd of vote.
Suggestions that Sun belt is moving right but rust belt going left. If that is the case, that could/should be enough.
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,126
Back in Sussex
It was, but the number of mail-in votes was unprecedented due to Covid.

Pennsylvania seems promising though. Allegheny seems to be outperforming 2020 based on 1/3rd of vote.
I hate to keep doing this, but Pennsylvania is still favouring the Republicans, although it’s tighter than both Georgia and North Carolina when I was accused of going too early.

We’re still where we were: holding onto the expected Michigan win and flipping Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

All three are close and could go either way.

It’s not outside the realms of possibility that Trump could win all seven swing states.
 








Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,714
I hate to keep doing this, but Pennsylvania is still favouring the Republicans, although it’s tighter than both Georgia and North Carolina when I was accused of going too early.

We’re still where we were: holding onto the expected Michigan win and flipping Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

All three are close and could go either way.

It’s not outside the realms of possibility that Trump could win all seven swing states.

All swing States too early to call - counties vary considerably (NE PA the strongest Democratic areas in the State) - rural areas are also less populated so those results will come in before urban areas because there is less votes to count - rural areas tend to be Republican strongholds, it’s the densely packed urban areas that are pro-Democrat and those votes will come in last. This is why we are seeing Trump creeping so far ahead in some of the swing States Then in PA tomorrow, counting will start on the thousands of mail-in ballots which typically favor Democrats.

It’s like weighing yourself everyday rather than once a week - probably best not to as one’s weight goes up and down!😎
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,126
Back in Sussex
All swing States too early to call - counties vary considerably (NE PA the strongest Democratic areas in the State) - rural areas are also less populated so those results will come in before urban areas because there is less votes to count - rural areas tend to be Republican strongholds, it’s the densely packed urban areas that are pro-Democrat and those votes will come in last. This is why we are seeing Trump creeping so far ahead in some of the swing States Then in PA tomorrow, counting will start on the thousands of mail-in ballots which typically favor Democrats.

It’s like weighing yourself everyday rather than once a week - probably best not to as one’s weight goes up and down!😎
I’m not looking at the counts particularly.

The betting markets are my guide.

North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona are all Trump, and approaching “dead cert” territory.

Momentum favouring him in all of the other four.

The overall trend is not for Harris at all anywhere.
 








Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,126
Back in Sussex
Republicans now edging Michigan.

I’m going to catch a few hours sleep - seems little point watching this unfold from here.

We need a huge f***ing miracle.
 








Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
31,196
Harris's numbers are generally higher than Bidens 4 years ago, and so this race is very much alive.
 










Klaas

I've changed this
Nov 1, 2017
2,649
C***head ****ing things up again...


That in itself should be enough to disqualify this c*** from running. Even after the violence of 4 years ago, still inciting people with his lies.

Drop in the ocean though.
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,714
I’m not looking at the counts particularly.

The betting markets are my guide.

North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona are all Trump, and approaching “dead cert” territory.

Momentum favouring him in all of the other four.

The overall trend is not for Harris at all anywhere.
Surely actual voting is more reliable than relying on polymarket etc - doesn’t that just tell you who the betters think will win based on the current snapshot of time - that is why there has been so much fluctuation in the betting market? ie for weeks betting was way out of synch with polling because of Trump’s rhetoric largely - then came Iowa.

- it’s been Trump leading the narrative that the betting markets were more accurate than the polls to suit his ‘election was a steal’ agenda should he lose.

Don’t despair yet - as I said above, we’re seeing a lot of red at the moment because the rural votes are finishing counting much faster that the densely populated Democratic urban areas - I suspect the betting markets are reacting to that.

MSN saying swing States still too early to call - including ones she must win

“With 35% of the expected vote counted in Wisconsin, the presidential race is too close to call.”

“With 14% of the expected vote counted in Michigan, the presidential race is too close to call.”

“Pennsylvania too close to call - 48% expected votes in (Est. remaining 3,660,000)”


US_P00_R_D_TRUMP.png

Donald Trump
R01,609,336
50.1%
US_P00_D_K_HARRIS.png

Kamala Harris
D01,575,461
49.0%
US_P00_I_C_OLIVER.png

Chase Oliver
I014,740
0.5%
 
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