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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.8%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 147 38.8%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 211 55.7%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 18 4.7%

  • Total voters
    379
  • This poll will close: .


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,699
If you haven't yet, but wanted to take the generous odds on Kamala winning, you're too late.

Come on America, don't flush your country down the toilet
That’s just the betting that has changed - not sure the polls have - still to close to call? Different polls paint a different picture 🤔


latest polls- still neck and neck in swing states
 
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Lyndhurst 14

Well-known member
Jan 16, 2008
5,221
1730662220058.png
 


dwayne

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
16,157
London
It's shifted more than a little.

Trump was ahead against Biden, then against Kamala it's been nip and tuck either way until suddenly, for no apparent reason, Trump became a really strong favourite. There was nothing to point to that change - why had people not backed him when he was odds against, but then they decide to back him when he was a strong favourite? There hadn't been a debate or anything in his favour, there hadn't been a change in the polls, he just suddenly became a really strong favourite.

The most obvious answer is that people like Musk chucked a load of money on him, in order to influence people's voting decision. But now the odds are returning towards even as people take advantage of the generous odds available for Kamala.
Makes no sense to me. People are more likely to vote for the perceived winner? Is that even a thing?
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,088
Back in Sussex
I was going to say Trump, mainly because that's what I fear.

However - having just read about his unhinged ranting today, completely deranged even by his own very low standards, the recent polling is clearly getting to him - and the Republicans may have additional polling that is not in the public domain - so I'm going to allow my head follow my heart and say Harris.
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
52,829
Goldstone
Makes no sense to me. People are more likely to vote for the perceived winner? Is that even a thing?

Yes. If those who are undecided hear that one of the candidates is suddenly well ahead and 'everyone' is backing them, they can think 'well I guess if everyone else thinks they're the right person, they probably are'. That's why the Trump claims he has big crowds and claims the polls say he's winning, because Americans like to vote for winners.
 






A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,368
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Mentally preparing myself for Trump because if there’s one thing democracy has taught us in the last decade it’s that the terrible option usually wins
 




KZNSeagull

Well-known member
Nov 26, 2007
21,027
Wolsingham, County Durham
I would imagine that there has been a hell of a lot of Scalping (people taking advantage of very small moves in the market) happening on the betting exchanges, which happens on markets that are traded heavily. Trumps odds have shifted 3 or 4 points today for no apparent reason. £150m has been traded on Betfair exchange alone.
 




Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,699
Yes. If those who are undecided hear that one of the candidates is suddenly well ahead and 'everyone' is backing them, they can think 'well I guess if everyone else thinks they're the right person, they probably are'. That's why the Trump claims he has big crowds and claims the polls say he's winning, because Americans like to vote for winners.
That has been the issue with the betting - I posted a link a few days ago that showed betting can influence outcome for the reason you say.

Millions $$ were bet on Trump from outside the USA which may well have skewed the odds and given voters the impression Trump was winning.

I suppose if people see a candidate apparently so far ahead in the betting, they might not bother to vote - surely that becomes counterproductive if it invigorates people to come out and vote if they think their candidate is losing?
 


Change at Barnham

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2011
5,422
Bognor Regis
I would imagine that there has been a hell of a lot of Scalping (people taking advantage of very small moves in the market) happening on the betting exchanges, which happens on markets that are traded heavily. Trumps odds have shifted 3 or 4 points today for no apparent reason. £150m has been traded on Betfair exchange alone.
Shifted in which direction?
 






dwayne

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
16,157
London
That has been the issue with the betting - I posted a link a few days ago that showed betting can influence outcome for the reason you say.

Millions $$ were bet on Trump from outside the USA which may well have skewed the odds and given voters the impression Trump was winning.

I suppose if people see a candidate apparently so far ahead in the betting, they might not bother to vote - surely that becomes counterproductive if it invigorates people to come out and vote if they think their candidate is losing?
Exactly
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
52,829
Goldstone
I suppose if people see a candidate apparently so far ahead in the betting, they might not bother to vote - surely that becomes counterproductive if it invigorates people to come out and vote if they think their candidate is losing?

That's not really clear, but what we do know, is that sides like to claim they're winning, which suggests the opposite.
 






sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,214
Hove
‘All I want is a good mic’ -

Trumps performs air oral sex on the mic stand, says ‘damn’, ‘cr*p’ and ‘a*rse’, rips mic off podium and asks audience if they want to see him ‘knock the hell out of people backstage’




So much rage and anger - he drags the whole democratic process of electing the next POTUS into the gutter - November 5 will not be the end of the process to decide who will regain the White House, it will go on until the electoral votes are cast on 17 December and certified on January 6. In the meantime, Trump‘s sole aim is to disrupt and interfere with the process like a far worse adult version of a child who acts out in class because he is bored, has learning difficulties and is bedded in to attention-seeking, histrionic behaviour. The more Harris looks like winning, the worse his behaviour will become.

How ever did this deeply, deeply flawed character become the favourite for 50% of America to have as their President?

It’s unreal.

The senile old man's dementia disinhibition kicking in.
 




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