jordanseagull
Well-known member
- Feb 11, 2009
- 4,155
Got any examples? Genuinely curious.The number of "polls" being fact checked as AI generated falsifications now is the new scary reality....
Got any examples? Genuinely curious.The number of "polls" being fact checked as AI generated falsifications now is the new scary reality....
Sorry, but that’s rubbish. Order on the ballots is decided by a draw.
Positions on the ballot paper: How ballot draws work
Positions on the ballot paper: How ballot draws workwww.aec.gov.au
Oh yes I agree with that. 99% is too far.Someone saying they’re 99% sure of something would put their view of the odds at 1/100. Harris is 6/4. It’s a silly, exaggerated Twitter claim no matter what’s going on.
It would be reasonable to argue Harris should be the favourite given the evidence, though.
Got any examples? Genuinely curious.
The recent Trump surge was incredibly suspicious.Was reading it in these two:
Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists
Polling experts point to ‘fake polls’ exaggerating his support, with baseless lawsuits alleging fraud already filedwww.theguardian.com
AI deepfakes can sway voters and disrupt elections | FT Transact
Around 2bn voters will go to the polls this year, but for those looking to disrupt elections, AI-generated deepfakes could have significant political and economic repercussions. Tech companies and governments are working on ways to combat the spread of misinformation but, as the FT’s Hannah...www.ft.com
Yes indeed.Interesting article in the Guardina about polling
Dead-heat poll results are astonishing – and improbable, these experts say
It’s possible the tied race reflects not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsterswww.theguardian.com
I'm not sure the betting as it is, or the patterns, really matter. I'd offer BREXIT as an indicator. And early poll analysis is corruptible with the power of emphasis. I'd say it's a case of we won't know until Wednesday or whenever it is. It's even harder to work out what is going on over there than it is here. Truth is in the eye of the beholder.You understand what’s happening with the betting patterns?
There was no early voting with Brexit.I'm not sure the betting as it is, or the patterns, really matter. I'd offer BREXIT as an indicator. And early poll analysis is corruptible with the power of emphasis. I'd say it's a case of we won't know until Wednesday or whenever it is. It's even harder to work out what is going on over there than it is here. Truth is in the eye of the beholder.
The recent Trump surge was incredibly suspicious.
Given everything that’s come before, it’s hard not to think we will hear in a few months or years that there was dodgy polling going on.
Jon Ralston, a well-respected Nevada iournalist, does not seem to be saying the same thing. In terms of early voting by voters with registered affiliation, the Reps are ahead. Obviously registered Reps can vote for Harris.I'd like that to be true. But I'm 'meh' about it. It's just lone voices in Twitter.
You are assuming that votes for each candidate have been counted - they haven’t. Just the number of voters. There is no way of telling who they voted for except by assuming that in States where you have to register an affiliation with a Party to vote, those that all registered with Republicans will vote Trump and all those that registered as Democrats, will vote Harris and then guess how many of those are swing voters - there is no onus on voting for the affiliated party so it is just not verifiable data.There was no early voting with Brexit.
One of the main reasons I have some confidence is that all early actual quantifiable data looks pretty positive for Harris.
Actual votes are pretty irrelevant in Trump’s dodgy plan to fiddle the Electoral College.Indeed, the only thing (even though Trump won't believe it if he loses) that remains to be fact will be the actual votes now....
I’m fully aware of all of this.You are assuming that votes for each candidate have been counted - they haven’t. Just the number of voters. There is no way of telling who they voted for except by assuming that in States where you have to register an affiliation with a Party to vote, those that all registered with Republicans will vote Trump and all those that registered as Democrats, will vote Harris and then guess how many of those are swing voters - there is no onus on voting for the affiliated party so it is just not verifiable data.
Also, Republicans tend more to vote in person on Election day rather than mail in ballots - early voting in person is probably about even.
Jon Ralston, a well-respected Nevada iournalist, does not seem to be saying the same thing. In terms of early voting by voters with registered affiliation, the Reps are ahead. Obviously registered Reps can vote for Harris.
I'll let you know Wednesday. Absolutely. 100% I have SAUCES.Well someone's very wrong then. How do we find the truth?
Ask Musk's America PAC to knock on every voter's door in the USA to find out.Well someone's very wrong then. How do we find the truth?