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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 171 41.6%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.8%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.9%

  • Total voters
    411
  • This poll will close: .


US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,567
Cleveland, OH
Apologies, can't find the article but popped up on my feed, from Forbes. Harris ahead in 2 polls, Trump in the other 2. Early days but way ahead of where I expected her to be at this stage. Maybe winning over plenty who were reluctant to vote for Biden. Encouraging news anyway
Encouraging for sure, but polls this far out don't mean a whole lot at the best of times. And now we've had this bombshell drop on the race that will have polling companies scrambling to figure out how they need to adjust their models. They'd assumed the electorate would look one way and it's totally not clear how much that might have changed.
 




Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,585
Brighton
Apologies, can't find the article but popped up on my feed, from Forbes. Harris ahead in 2 polls, Trump in the other 2. Early days but way ahead of where I expected her to be at this stage. Maybe winning over plenty who were reluctant to vote for Biden. Encouraging news anyway
The Mooch has called Harris on TRIP.

An interesting analysis of her basically obediently staying in Biden’s shadow with the strategy being not to outshine him (which would have been all too easy).

Now that she has been set free, Trump is running scared. The US female vote (democrats and republicans) might well blow him away once and for all.

IMG_5296.jpeg
 


StonehamPark

#Brighton-Nil
Oct 30, 2010
10,133
BC, Canada
Interesting post, I’d like to read the associated article if you don’t mind posting a link?

Now that she has been set free, Trump is running scared.
Genuine question, I’ve been somewhat out of the loop the past week - how has Trump been ‘running scared’ since Harris has become the opponent?
The US female vote (democrats and republicans) might well blow him away once and for all.
Why would current Republican-voting women change alliances now that a woman is heading the Democratic Party? Is it purely because it’s a woman out front and centre? Do you assume those women to be that easily swayed and possibly fickle?
 


Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,585
Brighton
Interesting post, I’d like to read the associated article if you don’t mind posting a link?


36:50

Genuine question, I’ve been somewhat out of the loop the past week - how has Trump been ‘running scared’ since Harris has become the opponent?
The attack lines have been very weak. Essentially accusing his opponent of being mentally ill whilst he grapples with the fact he got his VP pick wrong.

Why would current Republican-voting women change alliances now that a woman is heading the Democratic Party? Is it purely because it’s a woman out front and centre? Do you assume those women to be that easily swayed and possibly fickle?
It’s American politics. The analysis I’ve heard is that gender and race is very influential on how people vote. It won’t take many Republican women in swing states to topple Trump. I’m of the opinion that a woman standing up to him, especially in any leadership debate (where let’s be honest, he’ll be shredded) is going to inspire women across the states. Red and blue.
 


StonehamPark

#Brighton-Nil
Oct 30, 2010
10,133
BC, Canada


36:50


The attack lines have been very weak. Essentially accusing his opponent of being mentally ill whilst he grapples with the fact he got his VP pick wrong.


It’s American politics. The analysis I’ve heard is that gender and race is very influential on how people vote. It won’t take many Republican women in swing states to topple Trump. I’m of the opinion that a woman standing up to him, especially in any leadership debate (where let’s be honest, he’ll be shredded) is going to inspire women across the states. Red and blue.

Thanks for the link, I will have a watch.

And interesting thoughts and light-analysis, I respectfully disagree with most, but interesting nonetheless.
 




nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,437
Gods country fortnightly
I do find it amusing. Trump and the Republicans have spent weeks saying Biden shouldn't be standing.

They've now got exactly what they asked for, and have since kinda gone "Oh shit!"
They’ve also spent weeks telling the American people there is no way they should vote for oldest candidate in US history.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,911
Anyone seen this? Apologies if fixtures.

'a new national poll from Reuters and Ipsos shows her with a two-point lead over Trump, 44% to 42%.'

'Some observers noted that the audience's enthusiasm contrasted with that seen at Biden events this electoral cycle.'

 


Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,585
Brighton
Anyone seen this? Apologies if fixtures.

'a new national poll from Reuters and Ipsos shows her with a two-point lead over Trump, 44% to 42%.'

'Some observers noted that the audience's enthusiasm contrasted with that seen at Biden events this electoral cycle.'

And her campaign has only just begun.

Wait until the electorate sees them debating in the same room. Some semi-demented racist, sexist old grave dodger verses an ex-prosecutor. The orange sack of hate, gas and bollocks is going to get destroyed. Only true Maga cultists will stick with him, they don’t number enough to get him over the line.
 




Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,441
Brighton
Anyone seen this? Apologies if fixtures.

'a new national poll from Reuters and Ipsos shows her with a two-point lead over Trump, 44% to 42%.'

'Some observers noted that the audience's enthusiasm contrasted with that seen at Biden events this electoral cycle.'

This. Seen the videos and it is infectious and rousing.

Trump is old news, and no longer excites or energises.
 




Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
25,784
And her campaign has only just begun.

Wait until the electorate sees them debating in the same room. Some semi-demented racist, sexist old grave dodger verses an ex-prosecutor. The orange sack of hate, gas and bollocks is going to get destroyed. Only true Maga cultists will stick with him, they don’t number enough to get him over the line.
Sounds like a good recipe for Trump winning does that.
 






Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,063
Cumbria
And her campaign has only just begun.

Wait until the electorate sees them debating in the same room. Some semi-demented racist, sexist old grave dodger verses an ex-prosecutor. The orange sack of hate, gas and bollocks is going to get destroyed. Only true Maga cultists will stick with him, they don’t number enough to get him over the line.
He won't get destroyed. Never underestimate his ability to talk complete bollocks, repeat himself and talk over people and answer different questions to that being asked. Bu the time he's done all that, no-one remembers the actual question, or realises that he wasn't able to answer it.

Just like Johnson - who got away with it for years.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,441
Brighton
He won't get destroyed. Never underestimate his ability to talk complete bollocks, repeat himself and talk over people and answer different questions to that being asked. Bu the time he's done all that, no-one remembers the actual question, or realises that he wasn't able to answer it.

Just like Johnson - who got away with it for years.
He could legitimately spend his time up there making fart noises and only responding with "I know you are, but what am I?" and MILLIONS of people would have a favourable view of it.
 




Jim in the West

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 13, 2003
4,943
Way out West
Worth listening to this (hope the link works) - Gideon Rachman of the FT interviewing Jacob Heilbrunn (who reckons Harris could "win big").


PS: Worth following Gideon Rachman's podcast....always manages to interview interesting guests with fascinating perspectives on the wider world.
 


Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
31,210
The story so far has really been how Biden's campaign has been beset by gaffes and low levels of energy. However, Trump's own campaign has been very narrow-minded, cementing his MAGA base but at what cost?

The fact he lied throughout the head to head debate has been forgotten about. To use a football analogy it was Burnley scraping a 1-0 win over Sheffield Utd via an own goal.

The choice of JD Vance does not broaden his appeal, while the decision to get Hulk Hogan to rip his shirt off and rabble rouse at the Republican National Convention looks dumbed down, cheap and tacky. I know US politics is more razzmatazz but the event was a redneck trailer trash jamboree.

I think Harris will win this if she keeps Roe vs Wade on the agenda and gets her VP pick right.
 


Seagull58

In the Algarve
Jan 31, 2012
8,424
Vilamoura, Portugal
The story so far has really been how Biden's campaign has been beset by gaffes and low levels of energy. However, Trump's own campaign has been very narrow-minded, cementing his MAGA base but at what cost?

The fact he lied throughout the head to head debate has been forgotten about. To use a football analogy it was Burnley scraping a 1-0 win over Sheffield Utd via an own goal.

The choice of JD Vance does not broaden his appeal, while the decision to get Hulk Hogan to rip his shirt off and rabble rouse at the Republican National Convention looks dumbed down, cheap and tacky. I know US politics is more razzmatazz but the event was a redneck trailer trash jamboree.

I think Harris will win this if she keeps Roe vs Wade on the agenda and gets her VP pick right.
Pete Buttigieg for VP. He's charismatic and smart, and the MAGA meltdown would be wonderful to see as they try to attack his gayness and her blackness and femaleness without explicitly saying the homophobic, racist and misogynistic words.
 






stewart12

Well-known member
Jan 16, 2019
1,899
while the decision to get Hulk Hogan to rip his shirt off and rabble rouse at the Republican National Convention looks dumbed down, cheap and tacky. I know US politics is more razzmatazz but the event was a redneck trailer trash jamboree.
and tbh Hogan isn't even that popular in wrestling circles anymore. It's been known for a long time that he's a bonafide arsehole, very much cemented by his weird programme where he showcased his utterly unhealthy relationship with his daughter (eg. "co producing" a song of hers which included the line "daddy he is no comparison to you") and his spoiled lazy son, and cemented again when he was taped proudly proclaiming that he'd never let a "black man" (of course using a different term which I won't repeat) date his daughter, showed no sign of comprehension as to why that was a problem and was unceremoniously sacked by WWE for being too racist for Vince McMahon

Trump would have been better off using one of the many, many socially conservative but not batshit mental big names from that world
 


US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,567
Cleveland, OH
On Vance:


“Frankly, I don’t really understand the pick,” Enten told Erin Burnett on Tuesday’s OutFront. “And apparently, neither do the American voters because we take a look at the net favorable rating for JD Vance. That’s the favorable minus unfavorable. It’s in negative net territory. Look at that. Negative six points.”

Enten says he looked at every election since 1980 and could not find another veep selection with a net negative rating.

“He is the first guy after, immediately following a convention, a VP pick, who actually had a net negative favorable rating that is underwater,” he went on. “The average since 2000 is plus 19 points, JD Vance, making history in the completely wrong way.”

He currently looks like an even worse pick than Palin back in 2008.

His net favorability is -6 where the average for a VP pick right after a party convention is +19 since 2000.
 


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