[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

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Insel affe

HellBilly
Feb 23, 2009
24,953
Brighton factually.....
Hints at three demands Russia is likely to demand for a ceasefire.
surely the second and third can't be held up, boots have to be on the ground as Russia cannot be trusted to not quietly go about committing war crimes and the third, you can't just agree to all the land taking being finders keepers so to speak, that is giving the green light to further incursions surely.

  • No NATO membership for Kyiv;
  • An agreement not to deploy foreign troops in Ukraine;
  • And international recognition of Vladimir Putin's claim to Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
54,899
Goldstone
That's the implication isn't it? I don't suppose we will know for sure, but I was surprised by the speed of the re-introduction of the intelligence sharing by Trump. It suggests that when he became aware of the full implications of switching it off, he switched it on again.

This could also mean, as Paul Warburg suggested when discussing the 'trap' for Russia in the 30 day ceasefire, that Trump may be more on Ukraine's side than we previously thought.

I think you're clutching at straws there. If he was in any way on Ukraine's side, he wouldn't have stopped the intelligence sharing in the first place (he'd have been told of the consequences, and could have just warned of it).
 






Insel affe

HellBilly
Feb 23, 2009
24,953
Brighton factually.....
I think you're clutching at straws there. If he was in any way on Ukraine's side, he wouldn't have stopped the intelligence sharing in the first place (he'd have been told of the consequences, and could have just warned of it).
Either that or he & Putin already have carved up Ukraine and asked for some help in turning off help while they launch a counter attack and annihilate the Ukrainians operating and occupying a part of Russia before coming to the table, it would look bad on Putin signing any deal while part of Russia was occupied.

I am probably wrong here and a bit far fetched maybe, but I would not put anything past Trump helping out a mate.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,267
I think you're clutching at straws there. If he was in any way on Ukraine's side, he wouldn't have stopped the intelligence sharing in the first place (he'd have been told of the consequences, and could have just warned of it).
I can understand why you would think that. I freely admit I am prone to clutching at straws. But do consider the possibility that your basic premise might be wrong. To use your own argument, you could equally say 'if he wasn't in any way on Ukraine's side, why would he have turned the intelliigence sharing back on'?

Read this from the Guardian article in SouthSaxon's post 23961:

'Starmer remained convinced that the withdrawal of aid and intelligence sharing, while hugely damaging and potentially fatal to Ukraine’s cause, was a Trump negotiating tactic to get Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire, and not part of a sinister conspiracy to help Russia take Ukraine.'.
 


Binney on acid

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 30, 2003
2,765
Shoreham
I can understand why you would think that. I freely admit I am prone to clutching at straws. But do consider the possibility that your basic premise might be wrong. To use your own argument, you could equally say 'if he wasn't in any way on Ukraine's side, why would he have turned the intelliigence sharing back on'?

Read this from the Guardian article in SouthSaxon's post 23961:

'Starmer remained convinced that the withdrawal of aid and intelligence sharing, while hugely damaging and potentially fatal to Ukraine’s cause, was a Trump negotiating tactic to get Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire, and not part of a sinister conspiracy to help Russia take Ukraine.'.
Starmer's walking on eggshells. He has to feed the ego of the orange one, and can't risk being subjected to retaliatory action, should he tell it as it is.
Rendering Ukraine defenceless against airborne genocide is quite simply a crime against humanity.
 




SouthSaxon

Stand or fall
NSC Patron
Jan 25, 2025
418
I think you're clutching at straws there. If he was in any way on Ukraine's side, he wouldn't have stopped the intelligence sharing in the first place (he'd have been told of the consequences, and could have just warned of it).
Trump isn’t on anyone’s side but his own. He’s a narcissist, every interaction he has is about his power and his control over the other party to the interaction. When he makes them feel weak, he feels strong.

The key thing is it doesn’t matter who is in his way, they’ll get the same treatment. He has no allies, it is all about self-glorification. He’ll adopt any position that serves that goal.

The world has no choice but to deal with him. The only way they can do it is to make their position work to further Trump’s self-perceived greatness.

If Putin convinces Trump that he can achieve greatness by pivoting and restoring relations, building a new great alliance, he will side with Russia.

If Europe can convince Trump that greatness comes through finally solving the Putin problem, he will side with Ukraine.

If he perceives that someone has crossed him and made him look weak or foolish, he will turn on them without a second thought.

People make the mistake of viewing Trump’s behaviour through the lens of their own, non-narcissistic, rationality. To understand Trump, learn about narcissism and how it works.

Paul Ryan (remember him?) learned this and decided to get the hell away:


Michael Wolff is well worth a listen, he understands how Trump works as well as anyone:

 
Last edited:


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,844
Wiltshire
Hints at three demands Russia is likely to demand for a ceasefire.
surely the second and third can't be held up, boots have to be on the ground as Russia cannot be trusted to not quietly go about committing war crimes and the third, you can't just agree to all the land taking being finders keepers so to speak, that is giving the green light to further incursions surely.

  • No NATO membership for Kyiv;
  • An agreement not to deploy foreign troops in Ukraine;
  • And international recognition of Vladimir Putin's claim to Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces.
Putin needs to feck off. If Trump supports that then we know 101% where he stands.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,267
Trump isn’t on anyone’s side but his own. He’s a narcissist, every interaction he has is about his power and his control over the other party to the interaction. When he makes them feel weak, he feels strong.

The key thing is it doesn’t matter who is in his way, they’ll get the same treatment. He has no allies, it is all about self-glorification. He’ll adopt any position that serves that goal.

The world has no choice but to deal with him. They only way they can do it is to make their position work to further Trump’s self-perceived greatness.

If Putin convinces Trump that he can achieve greatness by pivoting and restoring relations, building a new great alliance, he will side with Russia.

If Europe can convince Trump that greatness comes through finally solving the Putin problem, he will side with Ukraine.

People make the mistake of viewing Trump’s behaviour through the lens of their own, non-narcissistic, rationality. To understand Trump, learn about narcissism and how it works.

Paul Ryan (remember him?) learned this and decided to get the hell away:


Michael Wolff is well worth a listen, he understands how Trump works as well as anyone:


Good post. Imagine what it must be like working for him.

I would add that it is worth noting, if you were to cut through all the bluster, and liken military aid, intelligence sharing and Starlink access for Ukraine to switches, the default position of all three switches, subject to any required capitulation to Trump, would appear to be ON.

It might be different in peacetime of course.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,789
I can understand why you would think that. I freely admit I am prone to clutching at straws. But do consider the possibility that your basic premise might be wrong. To use your own argument, you could equally say 'if he wasn't in any way on Ukraine's side, why would he have turned the intelliigence sharing back on'?

Read this from the Guardian article in SouthSaxon's post 23961:

'Starmer remained convinced that the withdrawal of aid and intelligence sharing, while hugely damaging and potentially fatal to Ukraine’s cause, was a Trump negotiating tactic to get Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire, and not part of a sinister conspiracy to help Russia take Ukraine.'.


I read a couple of days back too, that Trump administration were shocked at the level of international pushback and condemnation, you'd assume the talk of 5 eyes to 4 eyes would've been seen by them too.

Real politik in action and restoring aid and Intel was the least damaging strategic option.
 






fly high

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
2,041
in a house
A short video interlude,as we don't see much video footage of oil facility damage in daylight. Suchomimus thinks this may well have been debris rather than a direct drone hit.

Shame so little damage.
 


SeagullinExile

Well-known member
Sep 10, 2010
6,352
London
I've just found out Zelenskyy voiced Paddington in Ukraine

Putin must die for attacking Paddington.

My son is livid. He’s threatening to throw stickle bricks at Putin’s mug next time he’s on the tv.
 












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