[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[SouthSaxon]

And an instant, timely reminder that Trump is “friend” to no one.

Proposed ceasefire just ‘temporary respite’ for Ukraine says Kremlin aide, as US team heads to Moscow – Europe live

Talks over ceasefire come as Russian operation to expel Kursk’s Ukrainian forces in final stage, claims Kremlin

www.theguardian.com

 

[Eric the meek]

Another indicator that Russia is preparing to fight on. I saw a report (I won't link it as I can't remember where it was), featuring satellite imagery over North Korea which identified increases in size of weapons manufacturing facilities.

 

[raymondo]

Another indicator that Russia is preparing to fight on. I saw a report (I won't link it as I can't remember where it was), featuring satellite imagery over North Korea which identified increases in size of weapons manufacturing facilities.

Yes I saw that too - large increase in the last two years. We remember that weapon supplies preceded N Korean troops by many many months.

 

[raymondo]

Here's more detail on the Moscow portion of the large drone strike. Was this the promised response to the Kryiv Rih attack, or is my timing wrong?

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes I saw that two - large increase in the last two years. We remember that weapon supplies preceded N Korean troops by many many months.

I also glanced at a video, from Konstantin Samoilov, I think predicting another mass mobilisation. I didn't watch the video.

 

[raymondo]

I also glanced at a video, from Konstantin Samoilov, I think predicting another mass mobilisation. I didn't watch the video.

Likely, and I imagine thousands more N Koreans

 

[Sirnormangall]

Yes, I'm with you both. As you say, it's - kind of good - but in a not all that good way.

But it's good in that it will take time to get Russia to get to anywhere near where a ceasefire would be acceptable for Ukraine.
So that gives Russia time to lose more troops, kit and reserves, and come nearer economic collapse (if indeed it is that near).

Yes but it also gives Putin more time to retake territory. Maybe at that point Putin will propose peace talks and put the ball back in Zelensky’s court

 

[juliant]

It amazes me that the Ukrainian partisans/drone operators often seem to be nearby to film the results of their operations.

I often thought the same thing however as a drone flier myself its amazing what cameras these things have and distance perspective. I can take very close up images from hundreds of metres away. The sort of drones these guys are using i would imagine they could be a mile or so away if not more.

Never thought i would see a modern day war being fought like this.....

 

[raymondo]

One of a number of bilateral defense agreements with Ukraine; and it's good, no need to put all the support eggs into one EU basket,with the risk of Fico and Orban delaying supplies.

 

[raymondo]

It amazes me that the Ukrainian partisans/drone operators often seem to be nearby to film the results of their operations.

And it's interesting that the Ukrainians knew there was a hidden Russian drone facility there - local partisans probably

 

[raymondo]

Very interesting and wide ranging proposals being developed: good working relationship UK and France

 

[Doug-ees-evil]

Putin + elite do not want a ceasefire in any way, shape or form. They want and need permanent war.

1) Because they are (mostly) sick, imperialist mass-murderers.

2) Permanent war maintains their control over their population through fear and a perceived threat + common enemy (and keeps the oligarchs happy).

3) They want all of Ukraine (its resources and the remaining people who are left after they have butchered their way across the country).

4) They do not fear Nato on their borders (hello Finland) but they most definitely fear a democratic and free Ukraine next door who move closer to EU principles long-term and show the Russian people what freedom, affluence and quality of life really could be like (this is Putin's biggest fear IMHO).

5) Permanent war is the only thing that is really propping up their (failing) economy and hides the true rot of corruption every where else across Ruzzkie society.

6) The only ceasefire they are interested in is a pause with full sanctions relief to allow them to rebuild, re-arm and finish the job off they started in 2014/2022.


He/they will only stop when they are stopped through force and when they are defeated militarily, economically and ideologically.
How this is done in the nuclear age with social media and a traitorous moron in the White House is anyone's guess.

 

[peterward]

Below almost perfectly mirrors @Doug-ees-evil excellent points above. And this from Trumps former Ukraine envoy

 

[Triggaaar]

I can understand why you would think that. I freely admit I am prone to clutching at straws. But do consider the possibility that your basic premise might be wrong. To use your own argument, you could equally say 'if he wasn't in any way on Ukraine's side, why would he have turned the intelliigence sharing back on'?

Maybe due to the backlash and criticism of doing it?

Read this from the Guardian article in SouthSaxon's post 23961:

'Starmer remained convinced that the withdrawal of aid and intelligence sharing, while hugely damaging and potentially fatal to Ukraine’s cause, was a Trump negotiating tactic to get Zelenskyy to agree to a ceasefire, and not part of a sinister conspiracy to help Russia take Ukraine.'.

I just can't imagine Ukraine nor agreeing to the ceasefire if they were told they'd lose help if they didn't.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Putin + elite do not want a ceasefire in any way, shape or form. They want and need permanent war.

1) Because they are (mostly) sick, imperialist mass-murderers.

2) Permanent war maintains their control over their population through fear and a perceived threat + common enemy (and keeps the oligarchs happy).

3) They want all of Ukraine (its resources and the remaining people who are left after they have butchered their way across the country).

4) They do not fear Nato on their borders (hello Finland) but they most definitely fear a democratic and free Ukraine next door who move closer to EU principles long-term and show the Russian people what freedom, affluence and quality of life really could be like (this is Putin's biggest fear IMHO).

5) Permanent war is the only thing that is really propping up their (failing) economy and hides the true rot of corruption every where else across Ruzzkie society.

6) The only ceasefire they are interested in is a pause with full sanctions relief to allow them to rebuild, re-arm and finish the job off they started in 2014/2022.


He/they will only stop when they are stopped through force and when they are defeated militarily, economically and ideologically.
How this is done in the nuclear age with social media and a traitorous moron in the White House is anyone's guess.

7) Putin’s grip on power is weakened if he’s seen to be giving way to Western pressure. Despite the recent shenanigans, the US is still the old enemy. He hasn’t stayed in power for 25 years by not watching his back very carefully.

 

[Triggaaar]

Is there any point in continuing with this peace process?

There was no point in starting it, it was Trump's dumb idea.

Peace would be great, but you have to be extremely naive to think Russia will allow it until they're forced to.

 

[Eric the meek]

Maybe due to the backlash and criticism of doing it?



I just can't imagine Ukraine nor agreeing to the ceasefire if they were told they'd lose help if they didn't.

Yes, the flip-flopping going on by Trump et al is something to behold, and shows he is - sometimes - sensitive to criticism if it comes from the right quarters, i.e. not the Democrats.

Regarding your second point, I read that Starmer and Macron (or rather their diplomats) were praised for their efforts to resurrect agreement between Zelensky and Trump. Whatever they did, it worked. Personally, I can imagine Trump going in all billy big bollocks, making a complete hash of it (we all saw the ambush) and then the adults coming in to clear up the mess.

It may all be immaterial anyway due to the intransigence of the Russians. It remains to be seen whether Trump has the skills to persuade Putin to observe a ceasefire. Will you be placing a bet on it?

 

[SouthSaxon]

If it convinces Trump that Russia can’t be trusted, even with him, it’s worth continuing with. That’s all this is about IMHO.

Trump didn’t have any plan for peace, he just wanted to bounce Ukraine into a minerals deal that he could brag about.

This month-long ceasefire plan was first mentioned by Macron at the London summit, two days after Trump and Vance had tried to humiliate Zelenskyy.

That was only two weeks ago, when I think we all felt that Ukraine was about to be fed to the wolves. Now we’re about to see Trump forced to face the fact that Putin won’t just agree to whatever Trump wants.

I’d say it’s proving more than worth it and it’s France and Britain that have masterminded the turnaround in super quick time. They probably knew it was unlikely Putin would agree to the offer, that was the point of proposing it. A calculated risk that might be about to pay off.

 

[Mellotron]

I’d say it’s proving more than worth it and it’s France and Britain that have masterminded the turnaround in super quick time. They probably knew it was unlikely Putin would agree to the offer, that was the point of proposing it. A calculated risk that might be about to pay off.

100% - it's not realistically about getting meaningful peace anytime soon - it's about forcing Putin to show his hand.

 

[Eric the meek]

Has this been posted on here?