[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[SouthSaxon]

There’s a few points in this which I’m not entirely convinced by, but what’s interesting is this:

In a sense, Britain and France are putting Trump’s judgment and tactics to the test.

And the concluding line:

Now the world is going to find out if the American president has assessed Putin and Russia’s intentions correctly.

It does seem like this is what’s happening. I’m still sceptical that Trump is colluding with Putin…Hanlon’s razor still applies*.

This puts Putin in a difficult position. If he rejects the offer outright, all bets are off. If he demands the remaining territory he doesn’t occupy be handed over, he looks unreasonable to US/Europe. If he doesn’t, he looks weak domestically and his war goals lose legitimacy. If he makes Trump look foolish by showing the world he was wrong, he knows what that could unleash.

* Nobody reasonable can deny that there’s plenty of circumstantial evidence for collusion. The evidence for incompetence is less appealing to our imaginations but it’s far greater in volume.

Art of a deal: how UK and France led dogged effort to repair US-Ukraine ties – for now

Over 11 days of breakneck diplomacy, Kyiv was convinced of need to pacify Trump, but reconciliation may be all too brief

www.theguardian.com

 

[Igzilla]

 

[SouthSaxon]

All of what he said. His US perspective maybe diminishes the role of Europe in what Ukraine initially proposed, but he’s spot on in what it means for Putin.

 

[raymondo]

Blimey... I would have been third with the Warburg video post . Well done guys

 

[raymondo]

Does that sound like he's got something in mind ?

I did read it that way...maybe Budanov has a 'Top 5' of targets, for use on special occasions

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Sorry,we can't only have the positive news here. Russia (plus N Korea) has retaken Sudzha in Kursk,and Ukraine has withdrawn. Apparently this makes it hard for Ukraine to maintain much presence in Kursk.
Well, it was brilliant, but a shame if it's lost before serious negotiations. Never mind, keep knocking out those oil refineries and make sure the Russians don't come over the Kursk border into Ukraine .

I just hope they managed an orderly withdrawal to save their people. Land means little at this stage. Ukraine needs to conserve people while killing lots of Russians.

 

[raymondo]

There’s a few points in this which I’m not entirely convinced by, but what’s interesting is this:

And the concluding line:

It does seem like this is what’s happening. I’m still sceptical that Trump is colluding with Putin…Hanlon’s razor still applies*.

This puts Putin in a difficult position. If he rejects the offer outright, all bets are off. If he demands the remaining territory he doesn’t occupy be handed over, he looks unreasonable to US/Europe. If he doesn’t, he looks weak domestically and his war goals lose legitimacy. If he makes Trump look foolish by showing the world he was wrong, he knows what that could unleash.

* Nobody reasonable can deny that there’s plenty of circumstantial evidence for collusion. The evidence for incompetence is less appealing to our imaginations but it’s far greater in volume.

Art of a deal: how UK and France led dogged effort to repair US-Ukraine ties – for now

Over 11 days of breakneck diplomacy, Kyiv was convinced of need to pacify Trump, but reconciliation may be all too brief

www.theguardian.com

That was interesting thanks,- especially that the ceasefire would NOT cover the front line in the east (Donbas) as that would be too hard to police.
But yes, air and sea and infrastructure ceasefire can be policed.

 

[Eric the meek]

'It seems a mystery, really, because all the vessels now have very highly sophisticated technical equipment to plot courses and to look at any obstacles or anything they’ve got to avoid.'

 

[Triggaaar]

One point he makes is that Russia having to turn down the ceasefire can work against their narrative in US that Ukraine is a warmonger. Whilst that could happen, it’s not Trump’s aim. Democrats already know that Ukraine is completely innocent in this war, so if the aim was to convince Maga, then Trump could just say it.

 

[peterward]

Does that sound like he's got something in mind ?

 

[Triggaaar]

I just hope they managed an orderly withdrawal to save their people. Land means little at this stage.

Eh? Where are they withdrawing from and to?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I've just found out Zelenskyy voiced Paddington in Ukraine

Putin must die for attacking Paddington.

​

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Eh? Where are they withdrawing from and to?

From Kursk. Presumably back to Sumy.

 

[Triggaaar]

From Kursk. Presumably back to Sumy.

Ah I see. For some reason I didn't pick up on the post you were quoting.

 

[Bodian]

Can he do this?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/mar/12/ukraine-war-live-updates-russia-ceasefire-putin-trump-zelenskyy-update?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-67d1def98f08c6cbdbe25d1b#block-67d1def98f08c6cbdbe25d1b

 

[Nobby]

Can he do this?

View attachment 198259

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/mar/12/ukraine-war-live-updates-russia-ceasefire-putin-trump-zelenskyy-update?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-67d1def98f08c6cbdbe25d1b#block-67d1def98f08c6cbdbe25d1b

He can do what ever he likes
And no one will do anything about it. He’s already a war criminal
But not in the eyes of the Orange man baby who will ignore it or pass it off as sonething justifiable

 

[raymondo]

'It seems a mystery, really, because all the vessels now have very highly sophisticated technical equipment to plot courses and to look at any obstacles or anything they’ve got to avoid.'

It's a mystery...nah, he's Russian.

 

[raymondo]

Can he do this?

View attachment 198259

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/mar/12/ukraine-war-live-updates-russia-ceasefire-putin-trump-zelenskyy-update?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-67d1def98f08c6cbdbe25d1b#block-67d1def98f08c6cbdbe25d1b

If that number is true, in the last few days, then the Ukrainian withdrawal was poor.

 

[Flounce]

If that number is true, in the last few days, then the Ukrainian withdrawal was poor.

Could this have had anything to do with the temporary cutting off of Intelligence sharing by the US? Just a thought, nothing more.

 

[Eric the meek]

Could this have had anything to do with the temporary cutting off of Intelligence sharing by the US? Just a thought, nothing more.

That's the implication isn't it? I don't suppose we will know for sure, but I was surprised by the speed of the re-introduction of the intelligence sharing by Trump. It suggests that when he became aware of the full implications of switching it off, he switched it on again.

This could also mean, as Paul Warburg suggested when discussing the 'trap' for Russia in the 30 day ceasefire, that Trump may be more on Ukraine's side than we previously thought.