[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[GoldstoneVintage]

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

You've probably all figured this out and I've been slow:
Denys Davydov says: Trump always planned to pause/stop the support to Ukraine at this time. He needed a grandstand reason, hence the manufactured ambush of Zelenskiy in the White House.

Sounds likely to me .

I understand why you live in hope because sometimes it feels like that's all there is.

IMHO, there is hope in this darkest of hours, but it's got nothing to do with Trump. I believe in the Ukrainians, their spirited defense of their civilisation, their ingenuity and I believe that their friends (who are legion) will not desert them. Russia will soon collapse if things carry on as their losses are completely unsustainable.

Keep the faith.

 

[portlock seagull]

Earlier today John Sweeney, who I respect and have read, spoke to the BBC openly about Trump being compromised by Putin along the lines of a sex tape. And possibly abortion. This is not ideal speculation, but a serious journalist and respected source with impeccable morality and integrity who’s studied both personalities for decades.

Also, if you’ve not read Killer in the Kremlin I’d recommend. Should now be part of the curriculum given what’s unfolding - we have a duty to urgently educate as well as mobilise in readiness.

 

[Eric the meek]

Earlier today John Sweeney, who I respect and have read, spoke to the BBC openly about Trump being compromised by Putin along the lines of a sex tape. And possibly abortion. This is not ideal speculation, but a serious journalist and respected source with impeccable morality and integrity who’s studied both personalities for decades.

Also, if you’ve not read Killer in the Kremlin I’d recommend. Should now be part of the curriculum given what’s unfolding - we have a duty to urgently educate as well as mobilise in readiness.

I have a great regard for John Sweeney.

It was him, soon after the war began, who observed that Russia had been at war with the west for decades, but it was just that the west hadn't noticed.

Well , a large part of the west, the USA, still hasn't noticed and it may be too late for it.

 

[portlock seagull]

I understand why you live in hope because sometimes it feels like that's all there is.

IMHO, there is hope in this darkest of hours, but it's got nothing to do with Trump. I believe in the Ukrainians, their spirited defense of their civilisation, their ingenuity and I believe that their friends (who are legion) will not desert them. Russia will soon collapse if things carry on as their losses are completely unsustainable.

Keep the faith.

Whilst I might concur about Russian military capability, European arms cannot fill the void of US withdrawal as we all know. Even with, if US cut support then Ukraine will be in dire straits in 9-12months eg ‘bullets run out, and them Russians don’t…’

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Whilst I might concur about Russian military capability, European arms cannot fill the void of US withdrawal as we all know. Even with, if US cut support then Ukraine will be in dire straits in 9-12months eg ‘bullets run out, and them Russians don’t…’View attachment 197754

Two answers to your very good point:

1) Money. By using frozen Russian assets, Ukraine could buy most of/all it needs on the open market.

2) Time. We don't currently produce bullets at the same rate as Russia, but that doesn't mean we can't. The Europeans are already talking about massive rearmament.

 

[Flounce]

 

[Pavilionaire]

I think now that Zelenskyy has made his statement and extended an olive branch to the USA then it would be good for Ukraine, USA and Europe if the mineral deal is signed swiftly.

Trump has indicated this will involve American workers in Ukraine, and they've said in their opinion this represent a measure of security for Ukraine. The USA will need some level of security to ensure the workers are safe and that the minerals can reach the port and be exported.

I also think that the minerals represents money flowing to the US, so if Russia were to keep fighting on the Ukrainian front, or cross into the Baltic States, then it would now be hard for Trump to justify citing financial grounds for not assisting a military response for Ukraine and the NATO countries.

Lastly, with regard to the Baltic States, it was a smart move to bring Finland and Sweden into NATO because this enables NATO to have troops and ordnance ready to protect Estonia and Latvia from the North and West. Having just joined NATO then how ready they are to engage in repelling incursions into NATO territory remains to be seen, but Trump's move to suspend military aid to Ukraine will encourage Russia to test the fledgling Scandinavian NATO set-up.

 

[Bodian]

Can anyone actually explain to me where there is any peace negotiations going on?

To me, a peace negotiation would be Trump getting Ukraine & Russia around the table to discuss a ceasefire / peace.

Ukraine have not refused to negotiate a peace - so why is he threatening them to do so? It can only be for his benefit.

 

[raymondo]

I understand why you live in hope because sometimes it feels like that's all there is.

IMHO, there is hope in this darkest of hours, but it's got nothing to do with Trump. I believe in the Ukrainians, their spirited defense of their civilisation, their ingenuity and I believe that their friends (who are legion) will not desert them. Russia will soon collapse if things carry on as their losses are completely unsustainable.

Keep the faith.

Thanks for that, much appreciated.

It hit me this evening that we can't trust anything that's currently said or done by the US administration. Everything can be fake, a set up.
Here are us folk trying logically to find a path through it all...

I'm hoping that Europe is about to test Trump.
The last (positive and hopeful) message from Zelenskiy could be the final attempt to appeal to Trump and see if he pivots back toward Ukraine and Europe - if not, then Europe and Ukraine know for sure.

 

[raymondo]

Can anyone actually explain to me where there is any peace negotiations going on?

To me, a peace negotiation would be Trump getting Ukraine & Russia around the table to discuss a ceasefire / peace.

Ukraine have not refused to negotiate a peace - so why is he threatening them to do so? It can only be for his benefit.

Seems that peace negotiations will only happen after/if a minerals deal (is it still a memorandum?) is signed.
Then Trump will announce what he and Putin think...and maybe Ukraine will be invited to a discussion.

You are right, it's mainly bollox so far.

 

[Bodian]

Seems that peace negotiations will only happen after/if a minerals deal (is it still a memorandum?) is signed.
Then Trump will announce what he and Putin think...and maybe Ukraine will be invited to a discussion.

You are right, it's mainly bollox so far.

Yes. So - unless Zelensky / Ukraine sign over much of their mineral rights to the US, the US won't help with peace negotiations.

So much for 'wanting and end to the killing' and being the 'World's Policeman'.

 

[portlock seagull]

Two answers to your very good point:

1) Money. By using frozen Russian assets, Ukraine could buy most of/all it needs on the open market.

2) Time. We don't currently produce bullets at the same rate as Russia, but that doesn't mean we can't. The Europeans are already talking about massive rearmament.

It seems the easiest decision in the room to make, using the frozen mafia money (let’s call it what it is). Why haven’t we? By doing so theres a fear we might set a precedent for doing this with other this than savoury states who have billions invested in Europe. Enough to more than upset our economies. Regardless, I’m all for setting precedents (!) and believe we in the UK have about 10% of the total seized with the rest spread across other European countries.

The bit about bullets was somewhat facetious, sorry. Some will get it from the picture but the general military conventional point i was making is when faced with overwhelming numbers you may run out of ‘bullets’ first and then you’re done for regardless!

 

[portlock seagull]

Can anyone actually explain to me where there is any peace negotiations going on?

To me, a peace negotiation would be Trump getting Ukraine & Russia around the table to discuss a ceasefire / peace.

Ukraine have not refused to negotiate a peace - so why is he threatening them to do so? It can only be for his benefit.

As I alluded to earlier, it’s not a negotiation. It’s an ultimatum. And you’re spot on with your assessment if you had any doubts you’d missed something. You haven’t!

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

It seems the easiest decision in the room to make, using the frozen mafia money (let’s call it what it is). Why haven’t we? By doing so theres a fear we might set a precedent for doing this with other this than savoury states who have billions invested in Europe. Enough to more than upset our economies. Regardless, I’m all for setting precedents (!) and believe we in the UK have about 10% of the total seized with the rest spread across other European countries.

The bit about bullets was somewhat facetious, sorry. Some will get it from the picture but the general military conventional point i was making is when faced with overwhelming numbers you may run out of ‘bullets’ first and then you’re done for regardless!

Battle of isandlwana?

 

[Triggaaar]

It seems the easiest decision in the room to make, using the frozen mafia money (let’s call it what it is). Why haven’t we? By doing so theres a fear we might set a precedent for doing this with other this than savoury states who have billions invested in Europe.

If the precedent is 'if you invade another country, we'll give them your money', it's a precedent I'm ok with.

 

[SouthSaxon]

It seems the easiest decision in the room to make, using the frozen mafia money (let’s call it what it is). Why haven’t we? By doing so theres a fear we might set a precedent for doing this with other this than savoury states who have billions invested in Europe. Enough to more than upset our economies. Regardless, I’m all for setting precedents (!) and believe we in the UK have about 10% of the total seized with the rest spread across other European countries.

The worry I think is that the likes of China, Saudi etc would pull all their funds out of European banks “just in case”. I find it fanciful that Europe couldn’t offer them any reassurance.

Battle of isandlwana?

They didn’t think to sing Men of Harlech in that battle and it got them all killed.

 

[portlock seagull]

As an aside, anyone else watching the new De Niro series where he plays a former president asked to help out in a crisis?

Where are Bush, Barrack and Clinton? Former presidents do hold influence yet they’ve said nothing publicly have they? Even as Trump trashes values - built over hundreds of years - at the stroke of a (sharpie) pen.

Has he also bullied everyone into silence, domestically?

 

[SouthSaxon]

As an aside, anyone else watching the new De Niro series where he plays a former president asked to help out in a crisis?

We’ve watched the first couple of episodes. Not sold on it yet but willing to stick with it.

Where are Bush, Barrack and Clinton? Former presidents do hold influence yet they’ve said nothing publicly have they? Even as Trump trashes values - built over hundreds of years - at the stroke of a (sharpie) pen.

Has he also bullied everyone into silence, domestically?

Bush is happy on his ranch. Trump’s hatred of Obama especially, but basically every other president who isn’t him, might make it counter productive? Maybe. Narcissists don’t like to share the stage with equals or betters

 

[OzMike]

So, Ukraine is now being blackmailed into giving their rescourses to the US for protection.
Sounds like some kind of a mafia racket. With US troops stationed there for enforcement.
The rest of Europe should now pull out, as Trump has now 'bought' Ukraine and wont want to cut anyone in.