[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[fly high]

(just released) if true, Putins weekend is going from bad to worse.... shame that

My only concern is the main leaders are Islamic extremists.

 

[Me Atome]

We effectively did that to Cologne, Dresden, Leipzig etc. towards the end of WW2. Certainly broke the German spirit.

Did it?

 

[peterward]

His comments are not the 'Russia can have occupied land' that some will have you believe

He said he'd freeze if Ukraine is admitted into NATO, the land that Ukraine currently occupies is protected by article 5 (not occupied land) and that Ukraine will work to return occupied lands via diplomacy later (no ceding).

Of course Putin will reject this, as he's obsessed with Ukraines total destruction, now or later.

 

[raymondo]

85 years...and Russia hasn't changed it's approach. Europe and allies need this memory tattoed on our foreheads. Russia won't change...

I have added the relevant link now sorry,: Russia's invasion of Finland. Their standard playbook of lies as they invade. Nothing's changed.

 

[peterward]

My only concern is the main leaders are Islamic extremists.

From what I've read, and I dont profess to being an expert on Syrian factions, the group thats retaken Allepo were once part of Al Qaeda but have long since broken away and have actually fought Al Qaeda since, they're islamist, but not Al Qaeda/ISIS type death cult types, they're backed by Turkey.

The other group in North YPG/PKK is the Kurdish crowd that US backed, and in main stand against both Assad and Erdoghan.

If that X video is true and the republican guard has initiated a coup against Assad, that will be from within his own security forces.
The rebels are not in Damascus yet.

Putin losing his leverage and his main base in Mediterranean and his main refuelling base for flights to Africa woud be excellent, what happens next re Syria is anyones guess

 

[raymondo]

His comments are not the 'Russia can have occupied land' that some will have you believe

Indeed. I'm a bit at a loss as to how diplomacy would result in the return of occupied lands . Perhaps most sanctions and confiscated property etc stay in place until Russia agrees?
I can't see it myself - it all sounds very sensible in some ways...

 

[raymondo]

From what I've read, and I dont profess to being an expert on Syrian factions, the group thats retaken Allepo were once part of Al Qaeda but have long since broken away and have actually fought Al Qaeda since, they're islamist, but not Al Qaeda/ISIS type death cult types, they're backed by Turkey.

The other group in North YPG/PKK is the Kurdish crowd that US backed, and in main stand against both Assad and Erdoghan.

If that X video is true and the republican guard has initiated a coup against Assad, that will be from within his own security forces.
The rebels are not in Damascus yet.

Putin losing his leverage and his main base in Mediterranean and his main refuelling base for flights to Africa woud be excellent, what happens next re Syria is anyones guess

And I know for sure that Turkey backs that rebel faction...because they have strongly denied it!

 

[peterward]

Indeed. I'm a bit at a loss as to how diplomacy would result in the return of occupied lands . Perhaps most sanctions and confiscated property etc stay in place until Russia agrees?
I can't see it myself - it all sounds very sensible in some ways...

I read 1 journo today, described Zelensky move as a political masterstroke?

He's showing willing to freeze as per Trumps plans, in exchange for iron clad security protections (which isnt unreasonable considering Budapest Memorandum was totally ignored), and he's doing so, knowing that Putin, obsessesed with Ukraines total capitualtion can never accept this, which makes Zelensky the peacemaker and Putin the very obvious block to peace.

 

[Triggaaar]

Indeed. I'm a bit at a loss as to how diplomacy would result in the return of occupied lands

I'm hoping Zelenskyy is mainly offering this to look willing (as Trump will want Ukraine to offer something), but either in the knowledge Russia would refuse, or with the condition that sanctions would remain. If sanctions remained, Russia would have to give the land back eventually.

Perhaps most sanctions and confiscated property etc stay in place until Russia agrees?

Agrees what?

 

[raymondo]

(just released) if true, Putins weekend is going from bad to worse.... shame that

Blimey, catastrophe/, elastic band theory in action: it's fine, all fine, it's good, no problem.... COUP, COLLAPSE...

 

[raymondo]

I read 1 journo today, described Zelensky move as a political masterstroke?

He's showing willing to freeze as per Trumps plans, in exchange for iron clad security protections (which isnt unreasonable considering Budapest Memorandum was totally ignored), and he's doing so, knowing that Putin, obsessesed with Ukraines total capitualtion can never accept this, which makes Zelensky the peacemaker and Putin the very obvious block to peace.

Yep, it's very smart . I guess I'm musing how things would progress if Putin actually accepted... unlikely though that is.

 

[raymondo]

I'm hoping Zelenskyy is mainly offering this to look willing (as Trump will want Ukraine to offer something), but either in the knowledge Russia would refuse, or with the condition that sanctions would remain. If sanctions remained, Russia would have to give the land back eventually.




Agrees what?

Agrees to give back the lands. I expect Putin could be dead by then.

 

[Triggaaar]

Agrees to give back the lands. I expect Putin could be dead by then.

The issue is that it were to get that far, I would expect Russia to ethnically cleanse the area, followed by pointing out that the citizens don't want to join Ukraine, so the sanctions should be lifted. This should be anticipated in advance, and it made clear that sanctions would remain regardless of the opinion of whoever moved into the area.

 

[peterward]

The issue is that it were to get that far, I would expect Russia to ethnically cleanse the area, followed by pointing out that the citizens don't want to join Ukraine, so the sanctions should be lifted. This should be anticipated in advance, and it made clear that sanctions would remain regardless of the opinion of whoever moved into the area.

I can tell you for certain in Crimea and now in increasing measure in Mariupol, they already have and are ethnically cleansing the population, plus forced russification of Ukrainians living there

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

My only concern is the main leaders are Islamic extremists.

Indeed. Sometimes (to paraphrase) there are many ghastly people on both sides.

 

[raymondo]

The issue is that it were to get that far, I would expect Russia to ethnically cleanse the area, followed by pointing out that the citizens don't want to join Ukraine, so the sanctions should be lifted. This should be anticipated in advance, and it made clear that sanctions would remain regardless of the opinion of whoever moved into the area.

Yes, absolutely.

 

[raymondo]

I can tell you for certain in Crimea and now in increasing measure in Mariupol, they already have and are ethnically cleansing the population, plus forced russification of Ukrainians living there

We know for sure there has been forced russification of the occupied area of Zaporizhzhia oblast where my wife's mother (and many friends) lives.
More than a year ago the citizens there were 'forced' to take Russian passports:
- or no access to hospitals
- no access to any medical/social service
- no access to jobs/business
- no access to very cheap gas prices.
They are now an ageing community, and in effect there was zero choice for them .
Interestingly, some citizens have still retained their Ukrainian passports as well. One friend has even managed to visit a relative in Poland, using an unofficial commercial route and both passports.

 

[raymondo]

The issue is that it were to get that far, I would expect Russia to ethnically cleanse the area, followed by pointing out that the citizens don't want to join Ukraine, so the sanctions should be lifted. This should be anticipated in advance, and it made clear that sanctions would remain regardless of the opinion of whoever moved into the area.

Yes, and once Ukraine regains their lands, there could be an offer that any citizens that wish to move to mother Russia are free to do so.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes, and once Ukraine regains their lands, there could be an offer that any citizens that wish to move to mother Russia are free to do so.

I would think they should always be free to go to Russia. Maybe it should be compulsory for some.

 

[Eric the meek]

I don't think it's a done deal that Russia will be staying in Crimea.