[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Very interesting piece thanks.
A real example of 'malicious actors' that are happy to take money (if that's the carrot) to undermine fellow women.

Also in the video, a reminder that Putin cares far more about advancing in the Donbas than in protecting his beloved provinces of Kursk and Belgorod. Maybe Ukraine can now move some of it's better troops back to Donbas, and replace them with less experienced for their defense lines in Kursk.

Finally a reminder from the contributor that Russia will still outlast Ukraine in terms of troop numbers, in the grinding front line. Ukraine's invasion of Kursk has been a part game changer but there will need to be much more to protect Ukrainian troop numbers:
- air defense
- unlimited drone supply
- faster shell delivery
- a freeing up of the restrictions (from the US and Germany mainly?) of firing missiles deeper into Russian territory to disable air bases used for attacks on Ukraine (one example).

It's an extraordinary clip. In my naivety/innocence, I am still amazed at some of the utter crap that comes out of Russia.

Ukraine will be aware of the finite supply of their troops. One way they may be countering it is by means of their unlimited drone supply. I think they are aiming to have produced 1m drones this year. They don't all need 'boots on the ground'.

Other ways to mitigate the finite supply of troops would be to widen the mobilisation in terms of age - and gender. I once watched a video featuring female Ukrainian snipers. They were good at it. Long range sniping keeps them at a safe-ish distance away from the close combat of the front-line.

 

[raymondo]

It's an extraordinary clip. In my naivety/innocence, I am still amazed at some of the utter crap that comes out of Russia.

Ukraine will be aware of the finite supply of their troops. One way they may be countering it is by means of their unlimited drone supply. I think they are aiming to have produced 1m drones this year. They don't all need 'boots on the ground'.

Other ways to mitigate the finite supply of troops would be to widen the mobilisation in terms of age - and gender. I once watched a video featuring female Ukrainian snipers. They were good at it. Long range sniping keeps them at a safe-ish distance away from the close combat of the front-line.

I think Ukraine is down to age 25 for mobilisation IIRC? I'm sure they'd like to protect the younger guys but may have to mobilise them at some point (women are voluntary at the moment).
If I'm thinking correctly... there'll be a hole of young men from age 18-20/21 because many of them will have left Ukraine with a parent during the initial invasion. I only say that because, if the war continues for another two years say, there may be very few men in Ukraine between ages 18 and 23. Hopefully we don't get there...

Forgot to add earlier: I hope very much that Ukraine is getting urgent covert help in it's own ballistic missile program. The results of that could be critical in the coming months.

 

[peterward]

I think Ukraine is down to age 25 for mobilisation IIRC? I'm sure they'd like to protect the younger guys but may have to mobilise them at some point (women are voluntary at the moment).
If I'm thinking correctly... there'll be a hole of young men from age 18-20/21 because many of them will have left Ukraine with a parent during the initial invasion. I only say that because, if the war continues for another two years say, there may be very few men in Ukraine between ages 18 and 23. Hopefully we don't get there...

Forgot to add earlier: I hope very much that Ukraine is getting urgent covert help in it's own ballistic missile program. The results of that could be critical in the coming months.

You know, I had wondered that too in recent weeks, havent seen anything to suggest it may be the case, but wondered if either covertly by UK, US etc or could the ukrainians deconstruct and reverse engineer and ATACMS or similar and try and clone something........ would make sense if they could.

 

[raymondo]

You know, I had wondered that too in recent weeks, havent seen anything to suggest it may be the case, but wondered if either covertly by UK, US etc or could the ukrainians deconstruct and reverse engineer and ATACMS or similar and try and clone something........ would make sense if they could.

Absolutely. It's feeling critical isn't it?

I'm hoping the US 's fairly public restriction of ATACMS etc use is a smokescreen for covert assistance on Ukraine's diy program.,
For me, a Ukrainian ballistic program needs to come to fruition before the possibility of having Trump in the White House.

 

[Eric the meek]

I think Ukraine is down to age 25 for mobilisation IIRC? I'm sure they'd like to protect the younger guys but may have to mobilise them at some point (women are voluntary at the moment).
If I'm thinking correctly... there'll be a hole of young men from age 18-20/21 because many of them will have left Ukraine with a parent during the initial invasion. I only say that because, if the war continues for another two years say, there may be very few men in Ukraine between ages 18 and 23. Hopefully we don't get there...

Forgot to add earlier: I hope very much that Ukraine is getting urgent covert help in it's own ballistic missile program. The results of that could be critical in the coming months.

Did you see this article on the BBC? I seem to recall the mobilisation expansion was at both ends of the age range.

'In the hail of machine gun fire and instructors’ commands, the most striking aspect of the scene is the age of the new recruits. Most seem to be in their 40s and 50s.'

Russia-Ukraine war: Meeting the recruits preparing for battle

As Kyiv fights on home soil and in Russia, Nick Beake speaks to recruits being sent to the battlefield.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[raymondo]

Did you see this article on the BBC? I seem to recall the mobilisation expansion was at both ends of the age range.

'In the hail of machine gun fire and instructors’ commands, the most striking aspect of the scene is the age of the new recruits. Most seem to be in their 40s and 50s.'

Russia-Ukraine war: Meeting the recruits preparing for battle

As Kyiv fights on home soil and in Russia, Nick Beake speaks to recruits being sent to the battlefield.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes I saw that .
My wife's nephew was mobilised in Zap about two months ago. After one month's training at a secret location he's been released back to his home at night. During each day he reports for more training and/ or duties closer to the front line south of Zap (he doesn't say, rightly).
He's mid 30s and hasn't been rushed to the front in a vulnerable area.

 

[raymondo]

Interesting statement from Kirby re location of Russian attack air bases. I wonder if Ukraine will reply publically?

 

[raymondo]

The reply might be:
"Ok, so give us more air defense systems then!"

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes I saw that .
My wife's nephew was mobilised in Zap about two months ago. After one month's training at a secret location he's been released back to his home at night. During each day he reports for more training and/ or duties closer to the front line south of Zap (he doesn't say, rightly).
He's mid 30s and hasn't been rushed to the front in a vulnerable area.

There isn't an emoji for that. Or at least if there is, I don't know which I should use.

Needless to say, he, you and your wife have my best wishes.

 

[raymondo]

A report today of Belarus downing two Russian drones over it's airspace. If true...things are very twitchy along that border.

Belarus downing Russian drones over its airspace confirmed for first time, monitoring group reports

The Belarusian Air Force downed two Russian attack drones on Sept. 5 near the Belarusian city of Gomel, the monitoring group Belaruski Hajun claimed. If confirmed, the incident would appear to be the first successful interception of Russian drones by Belarusian forces over the country's airspace.

kyivindependent.com

 

[raymondo]

A few interesting screenshots from Denys' telegram this morning (no time to chase down the originating articles, sorry).

 

[raymondo]

I don't understand this: funding is allocated but then requires further approval to use it?

 

[raymondo]

Let's hope these promises actually get sent soon.

 

[Sirnormangall]

This is worth a watch https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m001zps2/the-zelensky-story

Finally got round to watching this. What a guy. Didn’t realise he was so well known and popular in Russia before the war.

 

[HalfaSeatOn]

Finally got round to watching this. What a guy. Didn’t realise he was so well known and popular in Russia before the war.

Same here. All 3 episodes this evening. Amazing bravery, resilience and purposefulness, particularly in the first stage of the war, for someone who lacked realpolitik experience.

 

[peterward]

Finally got round to watching this. What a guy. Didn’t realise he was so well known and popular in Russia before the war.

Weirdly, just done the same this evening.... can see how much the stress has added years to his complexion.

And from the show:

Spoiler: SPOILER

When he said in epsidode 1, that he was offered huge money to go and perform full time as show director in Russia in the mid noughties, but turned it down to stay with his comedy crew in Ukraine, both Mrs and I said, he would never have had any idea how absolutely massive that sliding doors decision was.... that one decision could have altered the whole course of Ukrainian and european history.

 

[Eric the meek]

Russia declares state of emergency as Ukraine kamikaze drone blows up Voronezh missile dump in huge blast:

There was an initial blast and then a series of smaller blasts as missiles went up.



Russia had previously blown up a Ukrainian military facility in Poltava, south west of Kharkiv.

 

[raymondo]

Russia declares state of emergency as Ukraine kamikaze drone blows up Voronezh missile dump in huge blast:

There was an initial blast and then a series of smaller blasts as missiles went up.



Russia had previously blown up a Ukrainian military facility in Poltava, south west of Kharkiv.

Excellent. The latter part of the video is a reminder that no Russian vehicle close to the front line is safe...if Ukraine has sufficient drones, drone tech, and operators.

 

[raymondo]

This is worth a watch https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m001zps2/the-zelensky-story

Just watched the first remarkable episode and learned so much about his life and popularity before he became president.
My wife's two lovely cousins were in Maidan Square during the protests against Yanukovich and say they will never get over the moments when the police/military/"Russian special forces" started shooting.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Weirdly, just done the same this evening.... can see how much the stress has added years to his complexion.

And from the show:

Spoiler: SPOILER

When he said in epsidode 1, that he was offered huge money to go and perform full time as show director in Russia in the mid noughties, but turned it down to stay with his comedy crew in Ukraine, both Mrs and I said, he would never have had any idea how absolutely massive that sliding doors decision was.... that one decision could have altered the whole course of Ukrainian and european history.

Can’t remember if it was this program or another that showed a clip of Putin shaking hands with Gordon Ramsey at 10 Downing St. Missed opportunity Gordon.