[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Yes it could be some or all of our speculations in the above:
- stay one step ahead
- keep Russia guessing the next step
- attack Russian troops as they move to Kursk
- attack areas where Russia reduced troops (Kharkhiv? Kherson?)
- tactical successes in Kursk: control the gas hub embarrass Putin and his elite morale boost for Ukraine prove to allies that harm can be inflicted on Russia burst the Russian 'superiority'bubble. Maybe attack and destroy other targets (rail hubs? Bearing factory as per @sparkie )
- reduce Russian focus on other targets, Kerch etc...

Mainly a summary for myself to keep a handle on what's going on!

 

[Baldseagull]

Thank you for your sentiment.

I saw the same thing somewhere - that it could take a year to eject the Ukrainians. I also saw the argument 'how could Putin bomb his own territory?'. On that one, I have no doubt that he could. Grozny? Numerous places in Ukraine? He continues to bomb Donetsk, Zap, Kherson etc, even after they've 'voted' to become part of Russia!

I wasn't aware that there are battalions still in reserve, but have seen tweets speculating that the big one is still to come. Who knows?

Some time ago, writing about the drone campaign against Russian oil refineries, I wrote that it was almost as if Ukraine are moving the front line to somewhere else. Well, that is even more true today, in Kursk. As for the shaping operations, that rings true.

By introducing a brand new front line, inside Russia, it might make Russia make some hard choices, and to staff the new front line, abandoning their farthest (=most expensive) positions inside Ukraine (Kherson). Just me thinking aloud.

He won't want to destroy his gas metering station on a pipeline to Europe and he won't want to destroy the Kursk Nuclear power plant.

 

[fly high]

I also saw the argument 'how could Putin bomb his own territory?'. On that one, I have no doubt that he could. Grozny? Numerous places in Ukraine? He continues to bomb Donetsk, Zap, Kherson etc, even after they've 'voted' to become part of Russia!

He wouldn't think twice about bombing Russian towns and villages then tell his people those evil fascist terrorist Ukrainians did it, after all they bombed their own cities then pretended we'd done it.

 

[Eric the meek]

He wouldn't think twice about bombing Russian towns and villages then tell his people those evil fascist terrorist Ukrainians did it, after all they bombed their own cities then pretended we'd done it.

Yes, he's done plenty of that already as we know. All part of the maskirovka, to accuse your enemy of the very thing that you have done.

We should be prepared though, as Ukraine cranks up the pressure, that his decision making could become even more (!) dangerous, desperate and unpredictable than it has been so far.

 

[Triggaaar]

He wouldn't think twice about bombing Russian towns and villages then tell his people those evil fascist terrorist Ukrainians did it, after all they bombed their own cities then pretended we'd done it.

While he wouldn't care one bit, if the city was full of people and occupied by Ukrainian troops, hundreds of thousands of civilians in the city would know it's not Ukraine bombing them. While a false flag bomb here and there is easy to get away with, levelling a city with hundreds of thousands of your own citizens might be too stupid even for Russia.

 

[Eric the meek]

The Russians are building trenches in what looks like an attempt to protect the Kursk nuclear power plant. It's Zap all over again.

 

[vegster]

I'd like to think that this as part of a rapid land grab before the autumn. Putin has to move troops to the Kursk region leaving Russian forces weakened in SE Ukraine. I really don't think that Ukraine want to keep that chunk of Russia, they want Crimea back. As has been stated above, this attack is to divide and weaken Putin's position and possibly make a dash for Mariupal , cut the Kerch Bridge permanently and mop up the south of Ukraine.

This might well lead to regime change in Russia with the hope that a new leader can see the folly of continuing an expensive war that Russia cannot win.

 

[driddles]

Khalino Air Base sounds a more likely and achievable objective of this counter attack

Ukraine Is Determined To Flatten Khalino Air Base, Situated Just 50 Miles From The Front Line Of Ukraine’s Surprise Invasion Of Russia

The Ukrainians have targeted the air base in Kursk twice in 11 days.

www.forbes.com

 

[Eric the meek]

A glimpse into life in border areas of Kursk. Russians looting empty Russian homes....

 

[Triggaaar]

I really don't think that Ukraine want to keep that chunk of Russia

They 100% don't want to keep that chunk of Russia. The international community wouldn't support it either.

they want Crimea back. As has been stated above, this attack is to divide and weaken Putin's position and possibly make a dash for Mariupal , cut the Kerch Bridge permanently and mop up the south of Ukraine.

Is there anything in Mariupol worth taking? I supposed Russians have started to settle there, so it would be nice to turn up and tell them where to go. But generally I'd think the aim is to destroy Russian troops and hardware, and take areas that are militarily significant (does Mariupol count there, I don't know?).

This might well lead to regime change in Russia

I think you may be over optimistic there.

 

[peterward]

The Russians are building trenches in what looks like an attempt to protect the Kursk nuclear power plant. It's Zap all over again.

nice second tweet below that one Eric.

 

[vegster]

They 100% don't want to keep that chunk of Russia. The international community wouldn't support it either.




Is there anything in Mariupol worth taking? I supposed Russians have started to settle there, so it would be nice to turn up and tell them where to go. But generally I'd think the aim is to destroy Russian troops and hardware, and take areas that are militarily significant (does Mariupol count there, I don't know?).




I think you may be over optimistic there.

I think they want to retake Mariupol for the symbolism, so many lives lost defending Azvostal. They want to take back what was theirs and control the Eastern ports and the coastal highway. I'm sure I read somewhere that the millionaire ( possibly billionaire ) that owned the enormous site at Azvostal pledged to rebuild it when it fell. So, drive a wedge to Mariupol, permanently take out the Kerch Bridge by taking out a couple of spans of the roadway and the railway and they are in a good position.

There is always the worry that Putin might say " If I can't have it, you can't have it " and drop a tactical nuke or two on Crimea. As for regime change, he can't go on forever, at some point he will meet a sticky end, be it from others in the security services or an oligarch or a disgruntled parent of a dead soldier or even a soldier himself who lost colleagues in the slaughter and who blames Putin alone. When you have nothing to live for suddenly you have something to die for,

 

[Triggaaar]

I think they want to retake Mariupol for the symbolism

They're trying to win a war, they can't waste lives for a bit of a symbol.

If it's to get a good military position, then fair enough.

 

[peterward]

They 100% don't want to keep that chunk of Russia. The international community wouldn't support it either.




Is there anything in Mariupol worth taking? I supposed Russians have started to settle there, so it would be nice to turn up and tell them where to go. But generally I'd think the aim is to destroy Russian troops and hardware, and take areas that are militarily significant (does Mariupol count there, I don't know?).




I think you may be over optimistic there.

Ukraine already said they have no intention of holding onto, or annexing territory in the long term and that they will abide by the Geneva convention and rules of war, which does entitle them to go into Russia as self defence against the aggressor.

Mariupol is my Mrs home city, my mother in law who was here for over 2 years has gone back, and the devastation is horrific, and yes there are a lot of people arriving from regions and satellites like Tajikistan trying to profit and steal. Putin is definitly trying to Russify the city as part of his ethnic cleansing attempts. Mariupol is however a major port city and more importantly would cut the land bridge to Crimea. The port though however is pretty useless with the Crimea Bridge standing and blocking exit from the Azov sea to the Black sea. If the Bridge gets taken down, it would make more sense.

I dont personally believe Ukraine will go for Mariupol militarily, the best chance it has of returning is if Russia/Putinism more widely implodes and he is toppled.

Ukraine doesnt actually need to cut the land bridge anyway, just have fire control over the road and rail.

I still believe it will be easier to isolate and cut off Crimea, especially after vanquishing the black sea fleet away, and if Ukraine could take Crimea, the Jewell in Putins imperial expansionist crown, the rest may fall pretty quickly after?

 

[Eric the meek]

Possibility of a breakdown in Russian command and control:

Anton Gerashchenko has posted a tweet showing Russian POWs in Kursk (I won't post it on here - discretion). One of them complained about the Akhmat Group (Kadyrov's men) shooting aimlessly into the forest. This puts the Akhmat Group in the area.

I mention this, because this morning, I saw a tweet, now taken down or unavailable, suggesting that the Akhmat Group has agreed a 'non-aggression' pact with Ukraine, and had let the Ukrainians into Kursk, unopposed. The tweet was unconfirmed by anyone but it is interesting enough to warrant reposting. It was posted by Azov South.

 

[vegster]

They're trying to win a war, they can't waste lives for a bit of a symbol.

If it's to get a good military position, then fair enough.

Of course it is a good military solution. Take back Mariupol and heavily fortify just East of it, then trap the Russians in Crimea. Ukraine needs the ports for their exports. The Ukrainians are big on symbolism. It's there way of saying "we are not going away, we are not going down without a fight " " We will not give in until we get our land back ". . These people are never going to forget the sacrifices they have made and will look for any opportunity to rub Putin's nose in it.

 

[peterward]

Possibility of a breakdown in Russian command and control:

Anton Gerashchenko has posted a tweet showing Russian POWs in Kursk (I won't post it on here - discretion). One of them complained about the Akhmat Group (Kadyrov's men) shooting aimlessly into the forest. This puts the Akhmat Group in the area.

I mention this, because this morning, I saw a tweet, now taken down or unavailable, suggesting that the Akhmat Group has agreed a 'non-aggression' pact with Ukraine, and had let the Ukrainians into Kursk, unopposed. The tweet was unconfirmed by anyone but it is interesting enough to warrant reposting. It was posted by Azov South.

One of the fellas I follow on X is a former US commander called David, aka Secret Squirrel @secretsqrl123 hes called so much tactically right. You may enjoy his spaces stuff. Trent Telenko is often on there too.

x.com

x.com

 

[peterward]

 

[Eric the meek]

@raymondo, have you seen this? Are you OK?

 

[peterward]

@raymondo, have you seen this? Are you OK?

Seen some other reports saying the russians set fire to car tires inside the cooling tower??