[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

I know a number of people who are, like me, a little cynical about what you can and can’t believe from the media, that Aljazeera are the most balanced of media outlets. Don’t know how much that is true - anyone?

My adult stepson watches Aljazeera a lot and feels they give a more 'balanced' view in the sense of including interviewees (and topics) that the western media are not.
However, some of the interviewees can of course be more extreme and project their own agenda. So, as with most media, I'd say listen with caution!

 

[raymondo]

Th

Winning the war is not going to be easy. But winning the war is just the first leg.

How is the west going to win the peace? How is the west going to turn around the product of decades of tight media control, propaganda and poison against the west?

In Sky News' latest report, see this:

'Most Russians would support ending war 'this week', but only if Russia keeps new gains - poll'.
'While 71% would back an end to the war "this week", this figure drops to just 30% if the condition for peace were to return territories.'

Those percentages are much higher than I would have guessed. Hmmm...interesting.

 

[Sirnormangall]

My adult stepson watches Aljazeera a lot and feels they give a more 'balanced' view in the sense of including interviewees (and topics) that the western media are not.
However, some of the interviewees can of course be more extreme and project their own agenda. So, as with most media, I'd say listen with caution!

Yes, from my experience, watch Aljazeera with caution. I accept that it may sometimes be putting forward accurate news that I’d rather not hear but they also have a number of apologists for Putin who simply shouldn’t be given air time by anyone.

 

[Eric the meek]

Th

Those percentages are much higher than I would have guessed. Hmmm...interesting.

Are you hinting that the figures may actually be accurate? I have no idea whether they are accurate or not. I just read them on Sky, and thought, this is interesting. How on earth is the west going to turn this round when we want to persuade the average Russian to behave himself and leave Ukraine in peace.

 

[raymondo]

Yes, from my experience, watch Aljazeera with caution. I accept that it may sometimes be putting forward accurate news that I’d rather not hear but they also have a number of apologists for Putin who simply shouldn’t be given air time by anyone.

Exactly that. They mix some balanced views with the occasional Putin fan boy - I don't want to hear them but Aljazeera would probably say that some of their audience do.

 

[raymondo]

Are you hinting that the figures may actually be accurate? I have no idea whether they are accurate or not. I just read them on Sky, and thought, this is interesting. How on earth is the west going to turn this round when we want to persuade the average Russian to behave himself and leave Ukraine in peace.

Well, I guess I am... maybe. I expected a higher percentage to want to keep bashing on against the evil nazi Ukrainian regime as portrayed daily on state TV until Russia had cleansed the whole country. Maybe the poll didn't ask for that option.
Possibly the effect of sanctions, local diesel prices, occasional refineries blowing up, the odd body bag of a far flung relative is having an effect.
I'm not surprised more want to keep the current gained territory, as Putin has stated they are already part of Russia (they wouldn't want to gainsay him).

Anyway, I see it as a chink of light that a reasonable percentage want it to end... although I of course disagree with their keeping territory.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes, from my experience, watch Aljazeera with caution. I accept that it may sometimes be putting forward accurate news that I’d rather not hear but they also have a number of apologists for Putin who simply shouldn’t be given air time by anyone.

I don't watch it. I posted an article by them. I am no champion of Aljazeera, but thought it might be an idea if we broaden our palate!

In the early days of the war, I posted a few jaw-dropping clips from Russian state propaganda TV, for which I was criticised. I listened to the criticism and stopped posting them. But I still think there is value in posting them, as they highlight the messages the Kremlin is trying to broadcast to the Russian masses. Just one example was when the propagandist Vladimir Solovyev complained that Russia was having to buy expensive drones from Iran, and asked why wasn't Russia making their own. The passage of time has shown that this was a glimpse into the near future.

There is value in seeing opinions you don't want to see.

 

[Triggaaar]

How on earth is the west going to turn this round when we want to persuade the average Russian to behave himself and leave Ukraine in peace.

Persuading them would be nice, but it's a side issue. We simply need Ukraine to win. Even if Russians didn't want the war, Putin would keep fighting it. And if Putin lost, it wouldn't matter whether Russians wanted the war or not, they'd have lost.

 

[raymondo]

I don't watch it. I posted an article by them. I am no champion of Aljazeera, but thought it might be an idea if we broaden our palate!

In the early days of the war, I posted a few jaw-dropping clips from Russian state propaganda TV, for which I was criticised. I listened to the criticism and stopped posting them. But I still think there is value in posting them, as they highlight the messages the Kremlin is trying to broadcast to the Russian masses. Just one example was when the propagandist Vladimir Solovyev complained that Russia was having to buy expensive drones from Iran, and asked why wasn't Russia making their own. The passage of time has shown that this was a glimpse into the near future.

There is value in seeing opinions you don't want to see.

There is. It's painful sometimes but...'know your enemy ' and all that.

On a parallel thought I'm sometimes a bit wary when I watch Konstantin, and Hodges come to that (ex Russian businessman, ex British General). Their insights are truly valuable and worth hearing, but both seem to always be telling me what I want to hear...and, a day or so later, that doesn't feel like the reality.

Maybe I'm reaching peak cynicism!

 

[Eric the meek]

Persuading them would be nice, but it's a side issue. We simply need Ukraine to win. Even if Russians didn't want the war, Putin would keep fighting it. And if Putin lost, it wouldn't matter whether Russians wanted the war or not, they'd have lost.

Winning the peace is not a side issue. Even if Ukraine win, how can it have a secure future as an independent sovereign nation, with a malevolent nation next door? A nation that believes Ukraine should not exist? Ukraine needs long term security. That means NATO and EU membership. But it also means that Russia should be permanently disabled, both economically and militarily. If by any chance, democracy can emerge from it, that would be a bonus, but should not be a priority, as I regard it as highly unlikely in present-day Russia.

 

[abc]

Winning the peace is not a side issue. Even if Ukraine win, how can it have a secure future as an independent sovereign nation, with a malevolent nation next door? A nation that believes Ukraine should not exist? Ukraine needs long term security. That means NATO and EU membership. But it also means that Russia should be permanently disabled, both economically and militarily. If by any chance, democracy can emerge from it, that would be a bonus, but should not be a priority, as I regard it as highly unlikely in present-day Russia.

Ancient to modern history always tells us that peace is maintained through balance of power. No one ever starts a way unless they think they are strong enough to win. If Ukraine joins NATO and all NATO members play an equal part in keeping NATO strong, then please will prevail.

 

[essbee1]

Winning the peace is not a side issue. Even if Ukraine win, how can it have a secure future as an independent sovereign nation, with a malevolent nation next door? A nation that believes Ukraine should not exist? Ukraine needs long term security. That means NATO and EU membership. But it also means that Russia should be permanently disabled, both economically and militarily. If by any chance, democracy can emerge from it, that would be a bonus, but should not be a priority, as I regard it as highly unlikely in present-day Russia.

Indeed. When I watch the news, almost all elderly people (well a high percentage) love Putin because they've
been fed his bullsh*t propaganda for 20 years and look back at the 70s and 80s with a perverted sort of fondness. While that mentality persists, things I don't think will change. Brainwashing kids in school is one of the most worrying things about the whole situation. It's very difficult to get people to change their minds when they've been fed the same from young.

 

[Eric the meek]

Ancient to modern history always tells us that peace is maintained through balance of power. No one ever starts a way unless they think they are strong enough to win. If Ukraine joins NATO and all NATO members play an equal part in keeping NATO strong, then please will prevail.

I admire your certainty. I hope you are right. Sweden gave up 200 years of neutrality for a reason. Russia. Just before he invaded Ukraine, Putin cited NATO 'expansion' as the cause. Putin is afraid of NATO. It has seriously curtailed his expansion plans.

So yes, Ukraine should absolutely join NATO. But I would counsel against thinking it guarantees peace. As a student of history, you will be aware that while a full kinetic war between Russia and NATO has not happened, Russia has not been peaceful towards NATO members for the entirety of Putin's tenure. A bitter, defeated revanchist Putin, or his successor, could still threaten peace.

If I were Ukrainian, I would be seeking more security than NATO membership.

 

[A1X]

Putin also knows that NATO membership has an entry requirement of not having disputed borders (written in to avoid, for example, Montenegro joining then immediately invoking Article 5 against Serbia). This is why he’s constantly pushing the boundaries against the likes of Georgia and Ukraine (pre-2022), to prevent them being admitted. If Putin can be forced out of Ukraine then NATO will need to act quickly to admit and solidify Ukraine’s borders before Russia can lick its wounds and regroup. If Ukraine does end up ceding territory in a peace deal (not a good outcome but nevertheless a potential one, especially if Trump wins in November) then both NATO and Kyiv will need to accept that quickly and work to solidify the new borders.

 

[Eric the meek]

Indeed. When I watch the news, almost all elderly people (well a high percentage) love Putin because they've
been fed his bullsh*t propaganda for 20 years and look back at the 70s and 80s with a perverted sort of fondness. While that mentality persists, things I don't think will change. Brainwashing kids in school is one of the most worrying things about the whole situation. It's very difficult to get people to change their minds when they've been fed the same from young.

I realise I'm jumping ahead perhaps many years, but consider this scenario.

Suppose the West somehow achieves the Holy Grail of a fledgling democracy in Moscow. Parties emerge, and an election is announced. The election takes place, seemingly freely, and the Russians elect Putin back in?

 

[essbee1]

I realise I'm jumping ahead perhaps many years, but consider this scenario.

Suppose the West somehow achieves the Holy Grail of a fledgling democracy in Moscow. Parties emerge, and an election is announced. The election takes place, seemingly freely, and the Russians elect Putin back in?

If that ever happened (Putin being elected in a "democratic" setting), I'll run the length of Western Road
in soiled underpants shouting "yes, we have no bananas"!

 

[Eric the meek]

If that ever happened (Putin being elected in a "democratic" setting), I'll run the length of Western Road
in soiled underpants shouting "yes, we have no bananas"!

I would pay to see that.

All proceeds should go to help Ukraine.

 

[raymondo]

I realise I'm jumping ahead perhaps many years, but consider this scenario.

Suppose the West somehow achieves the Holy Grail of a fledgling democracy in Moscow. Parties emerge, and an election is announced. The election takes place, seemingly freely, and the Russians elect Putin back in?

I struggle to see any positive future for/with Russia for a very loooooooonnngg time!

I could see it imploding but with other dictatorial figures coming to the fore.

The indoctrination in education from an early age is so entrenched... no idea if/how that could be undone. It's in their genes.

 

[Eric the meek]

I struggle to see any positive future for/with Russia for a very loooooooonnngg time!

I could see it imploding but with other dictatorial figures coming to the fore.

The indoctrination in education from an early age is so entrenched... no idea if/how that could be undone. It's in their genes.

That's perhaps the most likely outcome.

Having eliminated all the dissenting voices, and surrounded himself only with those who agree with him, the chances are that when the time comes for Putin to be 'retired', Putin v2.0 will replace him. It is possible that he may be even more dangerous than the original version.

There are no doves in the Kremlin.

 

[Eric the meek]

Fast forward to a time when Russia is out of troops or weapons. No need to continue the war. Just wage a migration war to disrupt Europe instead. After all, it has worked pretty well so far, hasn't it?

Putin seeking to weaponise threat of mass migration, warns Estonian PM

‘Adversaries know migration is our vulnerability,’ says Kaja Kallas, spelling out negative consequences to Europe of Ukrainian defeat

www.theguardian.com