[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

110%

Why only 110%? Why not a gazillion%?

I thought better of you.

 

[Triggaaar]

 

[LamieRobertson]

Watched “20 Days in Mariupol” this evening on Amazon……boy was that in places a very very hard watch

 

[raymondo]

Reported that Ukraine hit Sevastopol with Storm Shadows last night, probably targeting the communications centre of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
No video confirmation yet.

 

[cheshunt seagull]

I was like you once.

Then I joined the Russia invades Ukraine thread, almost from the start.

Today, having been on the thread for two years, I can tell you that very few of us are 'always up for complex theories'. We all have our feet screwed to the ground, but we do like to discuss the pros and cons of things, chew the cud, and reach a consensus - a reasoned, considered conclusion.

Two years on here have shaped me. One product, is that there is nothing - NOTHING - of which Putin is not capable. Genocide. Murder. Rape. Torture. Child abduction. Then he denies it. Blames someone else. It's all part of his maskirovka.

Was it a false flag? I don't know. Will there be another one? Unless he is stopped, you bet.

I have absolutely no illusions about Putin’s ruthlessness or the amount of blood he would shed to keep himself in power. He is a monster ,however I don’t see how he gets any benefit from this attack.

It happened in a week in which a sham election was followed by a rally in Red Square. The aim of this will have been to generate a mood of nationalism and the impression of a strong government. This incident completely goes against the tone of the week which will have been carefully planned and engineered.

Some of the attendees at the concert will have been relatives of the Russian elite. Putin needs these people to believe that he is in full control of security as they will pounce on any weakness. If he wanted a high body count from an incident he could have found a location for it with more of what he would perceive as ‘disposable’ people.

The handling of theatre attack and hostage crisis in 2002 was universally viewed as catastrophic. Why would any Russian leader want to stir up any memory of that?

The lack of response by security staff at the event could be explained by security at events like this not being a priority. Although many people are employed in domestic security it doesn’t mean that they are all of high quality and motivation. This may be particularly the case with increase of people going into the military. I don’t know but I wouldn’t be surprised if the people on duty were on a similar level to the stewards we used to encounter at Brisbane Rd.

The slowness of the emergency response could be simply down to the fact that the venue is on the outskirts of the city.

I admit that I am not sure what to make of the lack of response to warnings from US intelligence. A theory here is that with the focus in recent weeks being on the election and inevitable celebrations,l as well as the ongoing focus on Ukraine, the Kremlin just didn’t have the mental bandwidth to think about anything else and that Putin didn’t want to hear about anything that wasn’t in line with his plans for a festival of his power. I am interested to see if more comes out about this.

I agree that we should always consider options and arguments and there is a lot that can be challenged in what I have written. False flag operations have occurred, the Gulf of Tonkin springs to mind. I am not saying anyone on here does this, but I am concerned at the ease with which a few carefully selected examples of inconsistencies are combined with a motive to generate a theory which generates a large number of social media clicks.

 

[peterward]

I have absolutely no illusions about Putin’s ruthlessness or the amount of blood he would shed to keep himself in power. He is a monster ,however I don’t see how he gets any benefit from this attack.

It happened in a week in which a sham election was followed by a rally in Red Square. The aim of this will have been to generate a mood of nationalism and the impression of a strong government. This incident completely goes against the tone of the week which will have been carefully planned and engineered.

Some of the attendees at the concert will have been relatives of the Russian elite. Putin needs these people to believe that he is in full control of security as they will pounce on any weakness. If he wanted a high body count from an incident he could have found a location for it with more of what he would perceive as ‘disposable’ people.

The handling of theatre attack and hostage crisis in 2002 was universally viewed as catastrophic. Why would any Russian leader want to stir up any memory of that?

The lack of response by security staff at the event could be explained by security at events like this not being a priority. Although many people are employed in domestic security it doesn’t mean that they are all of high quality and motivation. This may be particularly the case with increase of people going into the military. I don’t know but I wouldn’t be surprised if the people on duty were on a similar level to the stewards we used to encounter at Brisbane Rd.

The slowness of the emergency response could be simply down to the fact that the venue is on the outskirts of the city.

I admit that I am not sure what to make of the lack of response to warnings from US intelligence. A theory here is that with the focus in recent weeks being on the election and inevitable celebrations,l as well as the ongoing focus on Ukraine, the Kremlin just didn’t have the mental bandwidth to think about anything else and that Putin didn’t want to hear about anything that wasn’t in line with his plans for a festival of his power. I am interested to see if more comes out about this.

I agree that we should always consider options and arguments and there is a lot that can be challenged in what I have written. False flag operations have occurred, the Gulf of Tonkin springs to mind. I am not saying anyone on here does this, but I am concerned at the ease with which a few carefully selected examples of inconsistencies are combined with a motive to generate a theory which generates a large number of social media clicks.

You make good and well reasoned points the simple answer is his need to mobilise 500k + extra meat for his meat grinder, when levada polls show domestic support for war is waning, and the last time he mobilised it turned into a shambles as people started legging it left right and centre.

There was zero public appetite to go back into Chechnya in 1999, the people didn't want it and here was a man with a low public profile who was forecast (on polling) to lose the presidential election.

Boom, "Chechens blow up Moscow apartments" (FSB did it), public baying for blood, unite around the leader and flag wanting revenge and now wanting war, which solidifies Putins grip on power.

This crazy 3 day war to take Kyiv is not existential for Russia but it is for Putin and the ruling Siloviki, their whole vertical of power will not survive defeat in Ukraine, so as you rightly cited, they will do absolutely anything to retain power.

140 dead in a theatre, then trying to link it to Ukraine (to unite society around more war, Putin, mobilisation and feed Ukraine hatred) is existential to Putin.

The only question, was Theatre attack FSB organised, or genuine ISIS?

Either way, it's now clear the Kremlins intent is to use this terror act similarly to 1999 terror act with a false narrative.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Why only 110%? Why not a gazillion%?

I thought better of you.

It's a little joke of mine. A trope in fact. You will see it time and time again. Done because I grew tired of seeing others (especially in a football context) giving it 110% for more than 110% of the time. I seem to recall Ian Wright being a million percent behind something a few years.

You simply cannot underestimate how much this annoys me.

 

[One Love]

I understand ISIS attacking the west but what does ISIS have against Russia?

 

[Triggaaar]

You simply cannot underestimate how much this annoys me.

It irritates me too. For personal growth I wish I could become more tolerant of idiots.


(yes, yes, yes, just so I can learn to love myself)

 

[essbee1]

I understand ISIS attacking the west but what does ISIS have against Russia?

Syrian govt. was supported with Russian troops and mass bombings of the country.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I understand ISIS attacking the west but what does ISIS have against Russia?

I believe that their soldiers have slaughtered many of their fighters in Syria. Then there is Chechnya.

 

[sparkie]

Clearly if Ukraine had really wanted to blow up the False Flag target they would have used a long range drone swarm and not actual gunmen.

And they would have hundreds of higher priority, higher value targets anyway.

So, Putin's feeble blame casting is fatally flawed by both the above.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I understand ISIS attacking the west but what does ISIS have against Russia?

Long standing grievance. There are multiple sources on the internet:

"Putin changed the course of the Syrian civil war when he intervened in 2015, supporting President Bashar al-Assad against the opposition and Islamic State. The war began in 2011 after a pro-democracy uprising against al-Assad's authoritarian rule quickly expanded to fully fledged infighting, with Islamic State seizing large parts of Syria and Iraq by 2013. At its height, Islamic State held about a third of Syria and 40 per cent of Iraq, but by the end of 2017 it had lost 95 per cent of its territory.

There is also a Caucasus branch of ISIS, which operates mainly in Russia's largely Muslim North Caucasus region, mainly in the Russian republics of Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria. Chechnya has a long history of rebelling against Moscow rule, with an Islamist insurgency leading to armed conflict between Russia and militants from 2007 to 2017.

Islamic State more broadly has long recruited fighters from Russia and other parts of the former Soviet Union"

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

It irritates me too. For personal growth I wish I could become more tolerant of idiots.


(yes, yes, yes, just so I can learn to love myself)

The day the likes of you and I become tolerant of idiots is the day that.....all is lost. Fact.

 

[peterward]

It's a little joke of mine. A trope in fact. You will see it time and time again. Done because I grew tired of seeing others (especially in a football context) giving it 110% for more than 110% of the time. I seem to recall Ian Wright being a million percent behind something a few years.

You simply cannot underestimate how much this annoys me.

110% mate

 

[raymondo]

It's a little joke of mine. A trope in fact. You will see it time and time again. Done because I grew tired of seeing others (especially in a football context) giving it 110% for more than 110% of the time. I seem to recall Ian Wright being a million percent behind something a few years.

You simply cannot underestimate how much this annoys me.

I'm with you on that one, Harry...111%

 

[beorhthelm]

...

The only question, was Theatre attack FSB organised, or genuine ISIS?

Either way, it's now clear the Kremlins intent is to use this terror act similarly to 1999 terror act with a false narrative.

i'll throw it out there if FSB were behind this, they could have done a better job of making it look like Ukraine involvement. as it is, there's just opportunistic use to blame Ukraine.

here's another interesting side, what if the Kremlin are actually convincing themselves its Ukraine, indicating disfunction in the security services and leadership, taking their eye off other internal conflicts.

 

[fly high]

I understand ISIS attacking the west but what does ISIS have against Russia?

Maybe punishment for their destruction in Syria.

 

[raymondo]

i'll throw it out there if FSB were behind this, they could have done a better job of making it look like Ukraine involvement. as it is, there's just opportunistic use to blame Ukraine.

here's another interesting side, what if the Kremlin are actually convincing themselves its Ukraine, indicating disfunction in the security services and leadership, taking their eye off other internal conflicts.

Quite possible - the FSB and security services have a lot of credibility to lose if it were proven to be ISIS... well actually, whoever it's proven to be.

 

[peterward]

i'll throw it out there if FSB were behind this, they could have done a better job of making it look like Ukraine involvement. as it is, there's just opportunistic use to blame Ukraine.

here's another interesting side, what if Kremlin are actually convincing themselves its Ukraine, indicating disfunction in the security servicse and leadership, taking their eye off other internal conflicts.

good points and you're delving into areas that require expertise to answer, that I certainly dont have answers to.

Obviously all propaganda is to create narratives, whether stories or staged events. You dont need a reason if you can just create one! at source in places like Russia and N Korea, youd assume there are some that know full well the game and the intent, but it also seems very true, from reading, that many such societies do end up believing their own created bullshit realities.

If you hear Putins anti western rants, youd think the CIA were hiding in his cornflakes packet, he's still locked in the 1980's. i actually think he is f**ked in the head and believes a lot of this shit?