[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Interesting pieces in today's summary from the Guardian:

Closing summary​

• Ukraine hopes to have enough ammunition for its troops to repel Russian aggression starting from April, amid a Czech-led initiative to source shells for supply, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, said on Tuesday.
• Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, called on Nato allies to increase their defence spending to over 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), saying her country is already investing more than 3% of its GDP in defence and that all Nato allies should follow suit.
• Russia has launched 130 missiles of various types, more than 320 Shahed attack drones and almost 900 guided bombs in attacks on Ukraine so far this month, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said.
• A Russian energy ministry official earlier revealed plans to defend oil and gas facilities with missile systems. “We are jointly working, including with colleagues from the Russian National Guard, to cover objects, on installing, accordingly, protection systems such as Pantsir,” Artyom Verkhov, director of energy ministry’s department for gas industry development, told a parliament meeting.
• The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said he will propose that the EU uses 90% of the revenues from Russian assets frozen in Europe to buy arms for Ukraine via the European Peace Facility fund. Borrell told reporters in Brussels he would propose that the remaining 10% be transferred to the EU budget to be used to boost the capacity of the Ukrainian defence industry. He said he would submit the proposal to EU member states on Wednesday, ahead of a summit of EU leaders on Thursday and Friday.

 

[essbee1]

Those incursion troops are probably relatively hardened fighters too, so by no means easily
tamed or controlled. The more fronts that are opened up against the russians, the better and the
more it starts to get very tricky to spread russian forces around to cope.

 

[raymondo]

At first glance, this may not pass the 'so what' test, but look more closely, and you will find this:

'it affected the accounts of Uralkali company, businessman Ivan Tavrin, and the Coral Energy trading group, through which, according to the WSJ, Russia exports oil.

Is there more to come? A round of applause for the US State Department please

It's potentially quite big I'd say,- well done US...not everything for Ukraine is in cold storage.

 

[raymondo]

Those incursion troops are probably relatively hardened fighters too, so by no means easily
tamed or controlled. The more fronts that are opened up against the russians, the better and the
more it starts to get very tricky to spread russian forces around to cope.

Yes, I agree - clearly a long and quite porous border zone. It's been happening on and off for months, so Putin either doesn't care about that area, or can't do anything about it.

 

[JamesAndTheGiantHead]

Buy arms for Ukraine via the European Peace Facility fund.

Deliciously ironic.

 

[Eric the meek]

It's potentially quite big I'd say,- well done US...not everything for Ukraine is in cold storage.

It's about secondary sanctions isn't it? This is the US flexing its economic might and partaking in a some strong-arm tactics. Raising the spectre of secondary sanctions on banks, firms and nations who turn a blind eye to both the spirit and the word of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the west.

Without wishing to overstate it, it could be the canary in the coalmine. Extrapolate it across the world (apart from a handful of rogue nations), and Russia could eventually run out of friends, customers and trading partners. Even if it doesn't work, it will still be a rewarding journey.

 

[Eric the meek]

 

[raymondo]

Very impressive - would be interesting to know the source countries.

 

[Eric the meek]

Very impressive - would be interesting to know the source countries.

Two source countries of the first tranche of 800k shells, were South Korea and Turkey. I don't know where the second tranche of 700k came from.

 

[peterward]

At first glance, this may not pass the 'so what' test, but look more closely, and you will find this:

'it affected the accounts of Uralkali company, businessman Ivan Tavrin, and the Coral Energy trading group, through which, according to the WSJ, Russia exports oil.

Is there more to come? A round of applause for the US State Department please

Great news, but I'd hazard a guess that while "coral energy trading group" may have been curtailed, Russia will try and find another shell company / individual / route?

But good on to follow this path.

 

[raymondo]

Russia building railway...this means that Ukraine will have to destroy the track as well as the bridge.

 

[Eric the meek]

Russia building railway...this means that Ukraine will have to destroy the track as well as the bridge.

Perhaps but it may not be clear cut. It might depend on whether the Ukrainian military regard the new railway as a juicy target, a shooting gallery, or an easy way of getting their own vehicles and kit into Crimea when the time is right. The new railway may even turn out to be an asset in the long run, paid for by Russia in rubles and blood.

It is interesting to note that on Russian state TV, Margarita Simonyan is celebrating the anniversary of the reincorporation of Crimea and Sebastopol into Russia, because she was told to say that. Putin wants to celebrate what he sees as a success for Russia. But the flipside of that is that if he were to lose it, it has the potential to inflict enormous - and perhaps fatal - reputational damage on him within Russia.

Two retired generals (Ben Hodges, Chip Chapman) have both commented that it all hinges on Crimea.

 

[raymondo]

The war is definitely coming to Belgorod. Shame for the kids, but good that their parents and the population at large get a taste, at least, of displacement and worries. Well done Ukraine and the Russian rebels.

Ukraine war: Thousands of children to be evacuated from Belgorod after strikes

Around 9,000 children will be sent away from Belgorod after strikes blamed on Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[raymondo]

Perhaps but it may not be clear cut. It might depend on whether the Ukrainian military regard the new railway as a juicy target, a shooting gallery, or an easy way of getting their own vehicles and kit into Crimea when the time is right. The new railway may even turn out to be an asset in the long run, paid for by Russia in rubles and blood.

It is interesting to note that on Russian state TV, Margarita Simonyan is celebrating the anniversary of the reincorporation of Crimea and Sebastopol into Russia, because she was told to say that. Putin wants to celebrate what he sees as a success for Russia. But the flipside of that is that if he were to lose it, it has the potential to inflict enormous - and perhaps fatal - reputational damage on him within Russia.

Two retired generals (Ben Hodges, Chip Chapman) have both commented that it all hinges on Crimea.

Certainly celebrating Crimea will be all over their mainstream media, drowning out any noise from Belgorod.

 

[raymondo]

 

[Eric the meek]

Every little helps. Even if it is a bit late in coming from India.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indias-reliance-refusing-sovcomflot-oil-shipments-after-sanctions-sources-say-2024-03-20/

 

[fly high]

On the Ten O'clock news last night Steve Rosenberg presented a piece about an event he was invited to in the Kremlin. Putin had invited the great & the good of Russia and it was held in a massive room which was basically covered in gold. Putin made a speak & the BBC showed a short clip where he talked about the attacks on border towns. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when Putin complained about civilian areas being targeted followed by 'we don't do things like that'. Trouble is most Russians believe him.
Thought the piece would be on the BBC website but it isn't.

 

[Eric the meek]

On the Ten O'clock news last night Steve Rosenberg presented a piece about an event he was invited to in the Kremlin. Putin had invited the great & the good of Russia and it was held in a massive room which was basically covered in gold. Putin made a speak & the BBC showed a short clip where he talked about the attacks on border towns. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when Putin complained about civilian areas being targeted followed by 'we don't do things like that'. Trouble is most Russians believe him.
Thought the piece would be on the BBC website but it isn't.

I saw that broadcast as well. The gold covered doors to the room must have been a good two storeys high. Ridiculously ostentatious wealth plundered from the 'republics' within the Russian Federation.

I loved the way Margarita Simonyan changed from pleasant to irritated in an instant:

Rosenberg: 'Was there a serious challenger in the election? A serious opponent?'
Simonyan: 'Is there a need for a serious opponent? Why?'
Rosenberg: 'Why is there no need for a serious opponent?'
Simonyan: 'Why do you always think that the way you live is better than the way we live? The way you ask questions - 'why don't
you do it the way we do it?' Because we are not you and we don't like you much really'.

 

[timbha]

I saw that broadcast as well. The gold covered doors to the room must have been a good two storeys high. Ridiculously ostentatious wealth plundered from the 'republics' within the Russian Federation.

I loved the way Margarita Simonyan changed from pleasant to irritated in an instant:

Rosenberg: 'Was there a serious challenger in the election? A serious opponent?'
Simonyan: 'Is there a need for a serious opponent? Why?'
Rosenberg: 'Why is there no need for a serious opponent?'
Simonyan: 'Why do you always think that the way you live is better than the way we live? The way you ask questions - 'why don't
you do it the way we do it?' Because we are not you and we don't like you much really'.

That short excerpt and interview just about sums up Russia under Putin.

 

[raymondo]

Every little helps. Even if it is a bit late in coming from India.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indias-reliance-refusing-sovcomflot-oil-shipments-after-sanctions-sources-say-2024-03-20/

Yes, that's good, and hopefully Russia will find it even harder to find other vessels to export their oil.
India have played a tricky game, both sides.