[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Nobby]

If Russia lose in the short term, then Ukraine can join Nato and there's a lot less concern longer term. If Russia had another evil dictator, that's not necessarily a huge issue for other countries, as Russia won't have the ability to fight them.

Apart from those 4,000 nukes…..

 

[chickens]

Apart from those 4,000 nukes…..

Nukes aren’t usable by any nation, they’re just part of a potentially world destroying Mexican standoff. It would be MAD, and yes I do mean Mutually Assured Destruction.

 

[Algernon]

Not sure what your point is?

You don't think they'll be keeping a very close eye on these new developments?
With a view to..................

 

[Triggaaar]

You don't think they'll be keeping a very close eye on these new developments?

Yes of course they will

With a view to..................

go on?

Despite Russia's in-fighting, no one is going to be invading them.

 

[peterward]

I wonder how Putin is feeling right now about his decision to invade Ukraine.

Looks like it actually possible to demilitarise and denazify in 3 days!

 

[Algernon]

Yes of course they will


go on?

Despite Russia's in-fighting, no one is going to be invading them.

I'm quite sure you're intelligent enough to know exactly what I'm implying and I therefore don't need to spell it out to you.
If you agree or disagree then just say so.
If you're not fussed either way then just move on.
Are you a school teacher by profession?

 

[Triggaaar]

I know that to an extent “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” and I think Prigozhin is pragmatic enough to make concessions for peace, as he’ll have enough to deal with internally in the short term. But there are no guarantees.

My background anxiety is that instead he persists with the conflict, and there’s a renewed focus from Russia’s troops brought from suddenly having a leadership that isn’t so poorly informed and detached from the reality of the conflict.

While it's not difficult to imagine the motivation for someone like Prigozhin to wage a more effective war, first he needs to topple Putin and take over the entire Russian army, without much loss of life (ie, keeping the Russian military intact). If he can do that, then I'd agree that it would be a concern. But is that a realistic outcome? Putin's entire army abandoning him without a fight?

 

[Algernon]

Despite Russia's in-fighting, no one is going to be invading them.

My apologies.
I didn't see this bit of your reply initially.

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm quite sure you're intelligent enough to know exactly what I'm implying and I therefore don't need to spell it out to you.

Nope, it appears I'm not. Could you spell it out please.

 

[Eric the meek]

Looks like it actually possible to demilitarise and denazify in 3 days!

I think the convoy advancing on Moscow is quite fitting in view of that 40 mile convoy that approached Kyiv in March 2022.

 

[Triggaaar]

Apart from those 4,000 nukes…..

Regardless of what happens, Russia will still have those nukes, and like China and the US, they will still be capable of pretty much ending the human race. If that's what their leader wants, then yes, that can happen. That will always be the case. But if Prigozhin becomes the leader of Russia (basically the best job in the world for a Russian) why would he then want to end it all? That doesn't make sense.

What would make sense, is any ambition to take over Ukraine etc, but he wouldn't be able to do that with 4,000 nukes.

 

[Eric the meek]

This is the best close season I can remember.

 

[Triggaaar]

Hopefully the Russian army won’t capitulate immediately to the Wagner group and they can fight each other, in Russia, for the next few months, allowing Ukraine to drive out the Russian army from their country.

Indeed, that is the ideal scenario.

 

[Triggaaar]

The issue is this situation is not black and white. There’s a thousand different outcomes to this

I've suggested that Russias invasion of Ukraine either ends with Russia keeping part of Ukraine (a Russian victory) or Russia being kicked out of Ukraine (a Ukrainian victory). What would you say are third and fourth possible outcome? All out nuclear war maybe, and what else?

 

[Algernon]

Nope, it appears I'm not. Could you spell it out please.

Yet your previous reply of :
"Despite Russia's in-fighting, no one is going to be invading them."
implies you are.
No need to be deliberately obtuse. Go and be smart to someone else. Thanks.

And just for the record, I think China could decide to dip their toe in Russian waters should this get really messy.

 

[Triggaaar]

This is the best close season I can remember.

I know what you mean (the most recent news is good) although obviously there's still a lot of concern, and a close season without war would be preferable.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yet your previous reply of :
"Despite Russia's in-fighting, no one is going to be invading them."
implies you are.

I posted that and you didn't reply to it, suggesting that that wasn't what you meant. There is no way that China invades Russia - that would unite the whole of Russia and they would threaten (and mean it) China with nukes.

No need to be deliberately obtuse. Go and be smart to someone else. Thanks.

I was not being obtuse, you're mistaken and offensive.

 

[Eric the meek]

I know what you mean (the most recent news is good) although obviously there's still a lot of concern, and a close season without war would be preferable.

All of that.

I think it is good news. It will occupy Putin's mind, lose some or many pro-war troops. It may give Ukraine the opportunity to take back whole swathes of land with little resistance and loss.
Whoever wins the Putin/Prigozhin challenge, Russia will be weaker, which is also a good thing. If Prigozhin wins, having outed the war as a sham, I assume he can't then continue with it. Can he?

 

[happypig]

Part of me cant help thinking this is all planned and Putin's way of saving face while bringing it to a close. He could withdraw all his forces from Ukraine to wipe out Wagner and protect the motherland. There would be a significant loss of life among Russian Army and Wagner but he's shown he doesn't give two hoots about that.

 

[raymondo]

If Russia lose in the short term, then Ukraine can join Nato and there's a lot less concern longer term. If Russia had another evil dictator, that's not necessarily a huge issue for other countries, as Russia won't have the ability to fight them.

There may be only a VERY brief window for Ukraine to join NATO ... before the next war mongering idiot takes conttol