[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

My mind is blown by these most recent updates. Do we have enough information yet to know if this is genuine, or could it be a carefully choreographed media operation, to try and wrong foot Ukraine’s troops into making an unwise attack?

It's genuine. A couple of generals who were generally pro Wagner have come out publicly and called for Wagner not to fight, but to lay down arms. And all media outlets in Russia reporting Prigorzhin arrest warrant.... they interrupted live TV to broadcast their was a Wagner Mutiny.

It's real for sure, not sure how Prigorzgin wins, unless he has secret backers from on high?

 

[Juan Albion]

 

[JamesAndTheGiantHead]

 

[peterward]

I think the immediate plan is clear. Prigorzhin is attempting to seize Rostov for 2 reasons, nearly all the supplies for South East ukrainian occupied territory and resupply run through Rostov and there's a shit load of military hardware there. He and his fighters can seize the hardware and by blocking supply to Ukrainian territories, vast swathes could potentially collapse.

Putin probably wouldn't survive a loss Ukraine, by taking Rostov and its equipment and blocking major supply route, Prigorzhin gives himself 2 potential options to seize the throne, his further march or Putins war effort collapsing?

In other news:

 

[chickens]

I think the immediate plan is clear. Prigorzhin is attempting to seize Rostov for 2 reasons, nearly all the supplies for South East ukrainian occupied territory and resupply run through Rostov and there's a shit load of military hardware there. He and his fighters can seize the hardware and by blocking supply to Ukrainian territories, vast swathes could potentially collapse.

Putin probably wouldn't survive a loss Ukraine, by taking Rostov and its equipment and blocking major supply route, Prigorzhin gives himself 2 potential options to seize the throne, his further march or Putins war effort collapsing?

In other news:

Would we rather deal with a pragmatic Prigorzhin than a paranoid Putin? If anything my concern is that Prigorzhin seems more capable than Putin. Would love an immediate Russian collapse in Ukraine, but what would it bode for the longer term?

The Belarus angle is interesting, has Lukashenko fled for good? Might be good for his health, if he can keep ahead of the people Putin will send after him. Interesting timing though.

 

[jcdenton08]

The next 48 hours will be government defining

 

[Juan Albion]

Just seen a report on Polish TV that says they've seen pictures of a "massive" fire in a military base in Moscow. Not seen that anywhere else though.

 

[Juan Albion]

Ah.

 

[Happy Exile]

Unverified footage allegedly showing Prigozhin with in Rostov with the Deputy Minister of Defence.

Possibly bigger news is the rumour that Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff and defence deputy to Putin, is hiding from Prigozhin in Rostov. Presumably capturing him would be a big deal, but also perhaps there's no need for Wagner to go further than Rostov if that's where their targets are? If they go beyond that feels even bigger in that case.



This account is also worth keeping an eye on. He's a former colonel in the US Army and was Director for European Affairs for the National Security Council. His tweets explain why Rostov and why specific buildings have been targeted. Rumours now that Wagner may be moving on towards Moscow.

 

[A1X]

If Wagner are in Voronezh then it’s definitely not just seizing Rostov on their minds

 

[The Clamp]

They’ll not be stopping at Rostov if this is to be believed;

Wagner chief vows to topple Russian military leaders

Yevgeny Prigozhin says his fighters have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[raymondo]

Putin to speak on TV very soon. BBC news very timely on this story...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

 

[Mellotron]

Putin to speak on TV very soon. BBC news very timely on this story...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

Was supposed to start 45 minutes ago…

EDIT - now started

 

[jakarta]

Was supposed to start 45 minutes ago…

EDIT - now started

New set of nappies sourced...

 

[jakarta]

Wonder how Putin will spin things when Wagner start lobbing shells into Moscow. Can't remember that being part of the Special Military Operation?

 

[fly high]

Bloody hell, really kicking off, going to end badly for someone

 

[peterward]

Game time!

 

[portlock seagull]

Viva the revolution!

 

[Randy McNob]

go Wagner !!

 

[vegster]

Multiple twitter feeds confirming that there is severe civil unrest, Putin has vowed to crush the insurrection. Difficult to know how many " Decent " well equipped and trained soldiers will remain loyal to him though. Lots of conscripts,regular troops and Wagner fighters have been treated like meat at the front are very pissed off.

Interesting times.

Edit: BBC now reporting on this.