[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[chickens]

While it's not difficult to imagine the motivation for someone like Prigozhin to wage a more effective war, first he needs to topple Putin and take over the entire Russian army, without much loss of life (ie, keeping the Russian military intact). If he can do that, then I'd agree that it would be a concern. But is that a realistic outcome? Putin's entire army abandoning him without a fight?

I would have said not 24 hours ago, but all of the troops that have encountered Wagner so far seem to have either surrendered or joined them, and I wonder how much suppressed misery at this conflict is finding its outlet in turning to Wagner’s side.

If he is presenting himself as “the voice of the people” then they are not the traitors, they are heroes rescuing Russia from the control of a corrupt leadership. I’d say the odds are changing minute by minute and I’m wondering how Putin’s feeling about his defences dissolving away.

 

[raymondo]

I know that to an extent “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” and I think Prigozhin is pragmatic enough to make concessions for peace, as he’ll have enough to deal with internally in the short term. But there are no guarantees.

My background anxiety is that instead he persists with the conflict, and there’s a renewed focus from Russia’s troops brought from suddenly having a leadership that isn’t so poorly informed and detached from the reality of the conflict.

I think Prigozhin could continue with the war

 

[raymondo]

All of that.

I think it is good news. It will occupy Putin's mind, lose some or many pro-war troops. It may give Ukraine the opportunity to take back whole swathes of land with little resistance and loss.
Whoever wins the Putin/Prigozhin challenge, Russia will be weaker, which is also a good thing. If Prigozhin wins, having outed the war as a sham, I assume he can't then continue with it. Can he?

Prigozhin's Russian...he could do anything

 

[raymondo]

Part of me cant help thinking this is all planned and Putin's way of saving face while bringing it to a close. He could withdraw all his forces from Ukraine to wipe out Wagner and protect the motherland. There would be a significant loss of life among Russian Army and Wagner but he's shown he doesn't give two hoots about that.

I too have some suspicions

 

[peterward]

 

[Eric the meek]

Prigozhin's Russian...he could do anything

Haha, a small part of me thinks the same thing, but I managed to suppress those feelings.

 

[Nobby]

Regardless of what happens, Russia will still have those nukes, and like China and the US, they will still be capable of pretty much ending the human race. If that's what their leader wants, then yes, that can happen. That will always be the case. But if Prigozhin becomes the leader of Russia (basically the best job in the world for a Russian) why would he then want to end it all? That doesn't make sense.

What would make sense, is any ambition to take over Ukraine etc, but he wouldn't be able to do that with 4,000 nukes.

No I totally agree Trig - but just saying that this maybe another second towards midnight on the Armageddon clock.
There must now be a possibility that Wagner already has access to a few Red Buttons. It's maybe a good bargaining chip against the rest of the military, not the West.
I have no idea how the command and control structure works in Russia, but I suspect based on their pretty useless military it's a bit unstable.

 

[JamesAndTheGiantHead]

Prigozhin's Russian...he could do anything

Less hammer and sickle, more hammer and sledgehammer.

 

[peterward]

 

[JamesAndTheGiantHead]

 

[raymondo]

Wow, Prigozhin going all in, and taking the moral high ground...if there is such a thing in Russia.

 

[Triggaaar]

If Prigozhin wins, having outed the war as a sham, I assume he can't then continue with it. Can he?

You'd think not, but this is Russia we're talking about, so it's difficult to be sure.

On the one hand, no doubt Prigozhin thinks he could do a better job of waging war.
However, I like to think that he realises the war is not winnable (Russia haven't been holding back supplies as a joke, they've had no choice because they haven't got enough). And if it's not winnable, he's not going to have a nice life as leader of Russia by continuing to send Russian troops to their death - instead he will have started life as Russia's president by alienating Russian troops, their families, and the rest of the country against him.

Surely the easiest thing (to get yourself a good life) would be to blame the war on the person you've ousted (and it would be accurate), save the lives of all your soldiers, and rebuild Russia. But it is of course a worry that a warmongering maniac isn't capable of that.

 

[Triggaaar]

There may be only a VERY brief window for Ukraine to join NATO ... before the next war mongering idiot takes conttol

It didn't take Finland long, and if Ukraine have secure borders for a week, that should do it.

 

[Triggaaar]

I would have said not 24 hours ago, but all of the troops that have encountered Wagner so far seem to have either surrendered or joined them, and I wonder how much suppressed misery at this conflict is finding its outlet in turning to Wagner’s side.

Agreed. Although choosing not to fight him is not the same as then saying 'cool, I'll now go and die in Ukraine for you'.

I can but dream.

 

[raymondo]

You'd think not, but this is Russia we're talking about, so it's difficult to be sure.

On the one hand, no doubt Prigozhin thinks he could do a better job of waging war.
However, I like to think that he realises the war is not winnable (Russia haven't been holding back supplies as a joke, they've had no choice because they haven't got enough). And if it's not winnable, he's not going to have a nice life as leader of Russia by continuing to send Russian troops to their death - instead he will have started life as Russia's president by alienating Russian troops, their families, and the rest of the country against him.

Surely the easiest thing (to get yourself a good life) would be to blame the war on the person you've ousted (and it would be accurate), save the lives of all your soldiers, and rebuild Russia. But it is of course a worry that a warmongering maniac isn't capable of that.

I agree with all of that. He'd be tempted to show he would do a better job as a war leader...but hopefully he'd focus his energy internally. I'm not sure how he'd keep his Wagner fighters entertained... probably more African adventures.

 

[raymondo]

It didn't take Finland long, and if Ukraine have secure borders for a week, that should do it.

Yep, but Russia would have to allow them to be secure. I'm sure NATO could turn a blind eye to the odd skirmish.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

I think Prigozhin could continue with the war

I doubt it.

He's already questioned it's validity.

"What was the war for? The war needed for Shoigu to receive a hero star … The oligarchic clan that rules Russia needed the war,” he said.

 

[Happy Exile]

If Prigozhin fails is Putin still mortally undermined? I'd imagine the crackdown on any kind of dissent is going to get even stronger

 

[JamesAndTheGiantHead]

Russian MoD destroying its own fuel depots to prevent Wagner from refuelling en route to Moscow. Pretty desperate.

 

[Triggaaar]

I doubt it.

He's already questioned it's validity.

"What was the war for? The war needed for Shoigu to receive a hero star … The oligarchic clan that rules Russia needed the war,” he said.

I agree that's what makes sense (stopping the war), but being a Russian you can't be sure he won't just change his mind and come up with a new truth.