[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[faoileán]

It depends how far back you go back really as to what constitutes Russia whicht was a small but powerful country which established an empire over its neighbours and incorporated those bits into its own state. The Crimea was definitely not Russian from day one, it was a semi-independent 'state' within the Ottoman Empire until the late 18th century.

The fact of the matter is Russia annexed part of an independent country in 2014 in the same way it has been interfering in places like Georgia and Chechnya.

Russia has been interfering far wider than that... in the UK - Brexit, in the US - Trump.

 

[The Clamp]

Not liking these sham 'referendums' that are being announced today.

They may seem like an odd and pointless diversion, but actually there's a pretty sinister agenda here.

That's because the results will, of course, conveniently show huge majorities voting to join Russia (ie 120% in favour and other Communist classics).

Which means Putin can then say (mainly to the Russian public, but with a fake veneer of 'international justification'):

"These territories are now legally part of Russia, the people have voted so. Therefore it's not actually Ukraine defending them any more, it's us. And Ukraine is now the invader. Therefore we have no choice but to declare war to defend ourselves, and mobilisation and nuclear response are justifiable".

Ie he's creating grounds to flip the entire narrative to the Russian nation, and thus move instantly to having 'just cause' for full-on war, mobilisation, nuclear 'defensive' strikes and more.

Referendums are a terrible idea. They have been used by dictators and tin-pot political leaders for centuries to mimic democracy. They are hugely undemocratic. They are simple and so they appeal to simple people but they ignore many democratic disciplines such as margin of difference, electorate inclusion and campaign rules. Their repercussions are often poorly thought through and disastrous.

They are used as a way for bullies and failing politicians to push their own self interests onto a population. A last resort and the calling card of a failed political party. They should have been outlawed years ago.

 

[herecomesaregular]

Referendums are a terrible idea. They have been used by dictators and tin-pot political leaders for centuries to mimic democracy. They are hugely undemocratic. They are simple and so they appeal to simple people but they ignore many democratic disciplines such as margin of difference, electorate inclusion and campaign rules. Their repercussions are often poorly thought through and disastrous.

They are used as a way for bullies and failing politicians to push their own self interests onto a population. A last resort and the calling card of a failed political party. They should have been outlawed years ago.

Switzerland has always regularly held national referendums for years?

 

[Sirnormangall]

Switzerland has always regularly held national referendums for years?

That maybe true but their intention is not to justify bombing the crap out of another country ( hopefully!).

 

[The Clamp]

Switzerland has always regularly held national referendums for years?

I always knew there was something about the Swiss. Almost too neutral.





;-)

 

[Sirnormangall]

Not liking these sham 'referendums' that are being announced today.

They may seem like an odd and pointless diversion, but actually there's a pretty sinister agenda here.

That's because the results will, of course, conveniently show huge majorities voting to join Russia (ie 120% in favour and other Communist classics).

Which means Putin can then say (mainly to the Russian public, but with a fake veneer of 'international justification'):

"These territories are now legally part of Russia, the people have voted so. Therefore it's not actually Ukraine defending them any more, it's us. And Ukraine is now the invader. Therefore we have no choice but to declare war to defend ourselves, and mobilisation and nuclear response are justifiable".

Ie he's creating grounds to flip the entire narrative to the Russian nation, and thus move instantly to having 'just cause' for full-on war, mobilisation, nuclear 'defensive' strikes and more.

Exactly this. “ Here are the results of next weeks referendum”.

 

[Wardy's twin]

its always been a bit of an odd-bod settled or ruled by various groups, independent from Ukraine. the crucial point is it wasnt part of the original Ukrainian state declared when the Russian empire collapsed.

and a bit more read finds, it was independent briefly after the USSR collapsed too.

Just done some more reading and it does look like Ukraine might not be as clean on its handling as currently portrayed but as you say it was not a clear picture in the first place and it goes back to the point of where does it's history start and the answer is before Russia controlled it and populated it with Russians at the cost of the exiled Tatars and yes you could go earlier than that.

What we see is just another problem of people defining a nation state that doesn't fit the demography of the people there in. However what Russia did in 2014 was wrong even though you ( well me) could see some justification as to why.

 

[Insel affe]

Hmmmm somethings cooking…

Postponed live Putin broadcast, either full declaration of war on the pretence of protecting the areas they are losing ground, as others have alluded too.

Or he’s facing opposition from within…..

 

[raymondo]

Not liking these sham 'referendums' that are being announced today.

They may seem like an odd and pointless diversion, but actually there's a pretty sinister agenda here.

That's because the results will, of course, conveniently show huge majorities voting to join Russia (ie 120% in favour and other Communist classics).

Which means Putin can then say (mainly to the Russian public, but with a fake veneer of 'international justification'):

"These territories are now legally part of Russia, the people have voted so. Therefore it's not actually Ukraine defending them any more, it's us. And Ukraine is now the invader. Therefore we have no choice but to declare war to defend ourselves, and mobilisation and nuclear response are justifiable".

Ie he's creating grounds to flip the entire narrative to the Russian nation, and thus move instantly to having 'just cause' for full-on war, mobilisation, nuclear 'defensive' strikes and more.

Yes, you are probably correct, sadly

 

[beorhthelm]

chatter that the Russians are preparing to mobilise, bar men of fighting age to leave the country, enabling legislation going through Duma. was supposed to be an announcment from Putin an hour ago but nothing yet.

i cant see how this helps them, how calling up thousands of reservists and untrained to go into battle and surrender or run away will improve their strategic position.

 

[Weststander]

To me the only long term satisfactory outcome with Crimea is a referendum. An actual one, not the sham poll that they ran last time.

It would have to be overseen by an agreed international body. It wouldn't be perfect, of course it wouldn't. But I can't see another way

After 100,000 Ukrainians have left Crimea to escape the Putin’s tyranny and murder!

 

[larus]

chatter that the Russians are preparing to mobilise, bar men of fighting age to leave the country, enabling legislation going through Duma. was supposed to be an announcment from Putin an hour ago but nothing yet.

i cant see how this helps them, how calling up thousands of reservists and untrained to go into battle and surrender or run away will improve their strategic position.

Also, it’s not just manpower (or woman power), it’s having equipment.

Sanctions are having a major impact on their ability to re-arm and they’ve lost a lot of equipment already in this conflict.
Throwing a lot more untrained (or poorly trained) troops at this and expecting a vastly different outcome appears to be a poor plan. The modern Western kit which Ukrainian has now is proving to be vastly superior.

I’d also expect that any change in the scope of the Russian operation would lead to more support from the West, with better arms to be supplied. The Western arms companies will relish the chance to test their kit in action (maybe not a popular thing to say, but IMO it’s likely true).

My concern is that this has the potential to spill over into something more serious.

 

[GT49er]

After 100,000 Ukrainians have left Crimea to escape the Putin’s tyranny and murder!

Ye, that does unfortunately put a slant on any valid referendum.

My concern is that this has the potential to spill over into something more serious.

It always has!

 

[Weststander]

But also worth noting many of the reparations were eventually swallowed up under the Marshall Plan when the US essentially paid to prop up western European governments in the years after the war to prevent the spread of communism.

The 1953 London Debt Agreement effectively halved West Germany’s national war debt, with favourable terms on the rest. Enabling the ‘Economic Miracle’ and flowing from that a social spending blanket.
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/economic-consequences-1953-london-debt-agreement

 

[larus]

Ye, that does unfortunately put a slant on any valid referendum.


It always has!

Yes, agreed. Maybe it just feels ‘more real’ if/when they declare those areas as part of Russia.

 

[GT49er]

Yes, agreed. Maybe it just feels ‘more real’ if/when they declare those areas as part of Russia.

Unless they can find a way to enfranchise Ukrainian refugees - but that would be a pretty tough ask, and probably wouldn't be accepted by Putin anyway.

 

[Weststander]

Unless they can find a way to enfranchise Ukrainian refugees - but that would be a pretty tough ask, and probably wouldn't be accepted by Putin anyway.

Putin and his henchmen are literally murdering countless voters. In the relatively small areas retaken, already huge numbers.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-some-bodies-found-mass-burial-site-had-been-bound-2022-09-16/

Following in the genocidal footsteps of Stalin, Hitler and Karadžić/Mladić/Milošević. Snuff out other peoples, claim the land as your own, ethnic cleansing.

 

[Vin]

On BBC World News

Turkey's president says he believes Russia's leader is seeking an end to the war he began in Ukraine

 

[Eric the meek]

On BBC World News

Turkey's president says he believes Russia's leader is seeking an end to the war he began in Ukraine

See post #8284

 

[Triggaaar]

On BBC World News

Turkey's president says he believes Russia's leader is seeking an end to the war he began in Ukraine

If he thinks that's by holding fake referendums and calling it a day with his new empire, I trust Ukraine and the West will tell him where to stick it.