[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Icy Gull]

Nobody is going to be negotiating with Putin. For several reasons.

He’s a murdering ******* who has committed war crimes.

He does not keep his word nor abide by resolutions.

He regards negotiation as weakness. Putin probes and explores weakness and then attacks. NATO troops should have massed on all its Russian borders as soon as Putin started placing troops on the Ukrainian border. He attacked because nobody did anything to stop him.

I agree, he needs to be ousted before any serious talks of resolving this take place. Over to you Russia

 

[Eric the meek]

Nobody is going to be negotiating with Putin. For several reasons.

He’s a murdering ******* who has committed war crimes.

He does not keep his word nor abide by resolutions.

He regards negotiation as weakness. Putin probes and explores weakness and then attacks. NATO troops should have massed on all its Russian borders as soon as Putin started placing troops on the Ukrainian border. He attacked because nobody did anything to stop him.

Absolutely agreed, word for word.

But to broaden it, I watched a clip yesterday that said that Russia has effectively been at war with the west for 10-20 years. It's just that we haven't really noticed as there haven't been any loud bangs. Until now.

His tactics until he invaded Ukraine, have been cyber warfare, subversion, interference in elections and referendums, annexation of his neighbours' territories etc. All the time, he was building a warchest, until he decided Russia was ready to reverse what he saw as the travesty of the break up of the Soviet Union.

 

[sparkie]

Absolutely agreed, word for word.

But to broaden it, I watched a clip yesterday that said that Russia has effectively been at war with the west for 10-20 years. It's just that we haven't really noticed as there haven't been any loud bangs. Until now.

His tactics until he invaded Ukraine, have been cyber warfare, subversion, interference in elections and referendums, annexation of his neighbours' territories etc. All the time, he was building a warchest, until he decided Russia was ready to reverse what he saw as the travesty of the break up of the Soviet Union.

...funding anti-fracking campaigns, making western Europe reliant on his oil and gas....

 

[Eric the meek]

Well, what's all this then?

My antennae are picking up a willingness of Russia to try and salvage what they can from their own self-inflicted disaster.

'Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965993

 

[essbee1]

Well, what's all this then?

My antennae are picking up a willingness of Russia to try and salvage what they can from their own self-inflicted disaster.

'Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965993

Well, well. I hope that Crimea is handed back, all of the territory that that scum captured, Putin is hung from a lamppost and reparations for
the next fifty years are paid.

 

[Icy Gull]

Well, well. I hope that Crimea is handed back, all of the territory that that scum captured, Putin is hung from a lamppost and reparations for
the next fifty years are paid.

The worrying thing is that when he does get ousted the next leader is likely to be cut from the same cloth.

 

[SeagullinExile]

Well, well. I hope that Crimea is handed back, all of the territory that that scum captured, Putin is hung from a lamppost and reparations for
the next fifty years are paid.

Reparations worked so well in the past. As I’ve said before, you can’t punish an entire country for the actions of a madman.

It’ll breed nothing but hatred from future generations.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Reparations worked so well in the past. As I’ve said before, you can’t punish an entire country for the actions of a madman.

It’ll breed nothing but hatred from future generations.

So should we pay for the re-build? The Ukranians?

 

[SeagullinExile]

So should we pay for the re-build? The Ukranians?

A years worth Russian oil and gas money could pay for a rebuild.

Asking for 50 years of reparations is lunacy, and nothing more than a collective punishment on ordinary Russians!

 

[Insel affe]

Reparations worked so well in the past. As I’ve said before, you can’t punish an entire country for the actions of a madman.

It’ll breed nothing but hatred from future generations.

Agreed, is this not how Hitler came to power.

 

[SeagullinExile]

Agreed, is this not how Hitler came to power.

Indeed.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Well, what's all this then?

My antennae are picking up a willingness of Russia to try and salvage what they can from their own self-inflicted disaster.

'Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965993

It's positive. But i'm filing it under, i'll believe it when I see it. Putin could very easily be manipulating Erdogan or they could be in on a plan together.

Though I was thinking about how on earth Putin plans on wintering all those troops. Due to the cold they will have to be housed indoors much more leaving them either miles from the conflict or vulnerable to Ukranian long range weaponry, or he could send them off to stay in the houses they've nicked (presumably kicking the residents out into the freezing cold), but if they are that scattered around in relatively cosy family homes, will he ever get them back to do any fighting?

Winter will also be bad for troop morale generally, which affects Russians more as they are mostly conscripts and on the defensive

It's just possible Putin knows winter favours Ukraine more than it does Russia and wants to end it while trying to save a modicum of pride.

 

[SeagullinExile]

I reckon if Putin pulled back to pre war positions, Ukraine would open talks, and I think the West would advise them to. After all, they can’t supply weapons for ever.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I reckon if Putin pulled back to pre war positions, Ukraine would open talks, and I think the West would advise them to. After all, they can’t supply weapons for ever.

And if they did it will be very interesting to see whether A) Ukraine try to chase them into the Donbas and Crimea to get those back as well and B) the west is happy to continue supplying weapons for this purpose.

 

[SeagullinExile]

And if they did it will be very interesting to see whether A) Ukraine try to chase them into the Donbas and Crimea to get those back as well and B) the west is happy to continue supplying weapons for this purpose.

That’s the big question. The West didn’t before the invasion. To continue IF Putin pulled back could be seen as a NATO provocation?

The West could start to sell the weapons instead?

I’m pretty sure we’ll find out in time.

 

[Eric the meek]

It's positive. But i'm filing it under, i'll believe it when I see it. Putin could very easily be manipulating Erdogan or they could be in on a plan together.

Though I was thinking about how on earth Putin plans on wintering all those troops. Due to the cold they will have to be housed indoors much more leaving them either miles from the conflict or vulnerable to Ukranian long range weaponry, or he could send them off to stay in the houses they've nicked (presumably kicking the residents out into the freezing cold), but if they are that scattered around in relatively cosy family homes, will he ever get them back to do any fighting?

Winter will also be bad for troop morale generally, which affects Russians more as they are mostly conscripts and on the defensive

It's just possible Putin knows winter favours Ukraine more than it does Russia and wants to end it while trying to save a modicum of pride.

So many valid points Nobby - I agree with all of that. With the additional caveat that I hardly trust Erdogan any more than Putin. He's the most unreliable and unpredictable member of NATO.
What's in this for him? Is he trying to extend his influence in the Black Sea/Caucasus, as he sees Putin's influence on the wane?

 

[moggy]

There will never be a better time for Ukraine to get crimea back.
Zalensky will surely push for that

 

[sparkie]

Putin surely needs to offer more than just "I'll pull back to pre-war positions and let's just forget this ever happened."


I mean that is hardly enticing for Ukraine to settle for.


They'll surely have to get at least NATO membership out of any deal to stop it happening all over again in a few years

 

[usernamed]

Punitive reparations are how Hitler came to power. Give Russia easy terms, but they shouldn’t walk away without taking responsibility.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

A years worth Russian oil and gas money could pay for a rebuild.

Asking for 50 years of reparations is lunacy, and nothing more than a collective punishment on ordinary Russians!

Look. I get your point about reparations and Versailles and all of that, I understand how Hitler's rise to power came, but this is what "Putinism must fail and be seen to fail" means.

The cost is estimated to be $750bn. As long as Russia is footing the bill, they can pay sooner or longer, I guess they would choose longer. I also believe the west should have no part in brokering any deal, it's for Russia and Ukraine. If they want a mediator, fine, but we should have nothing to do with it.

To me, any deal seems inconceivable anyway. A perpetual uneasy stand off is far more likely.