[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Nobby Cybergoat]

This is going to cause quartermasters and supply depots all across Russia to be shitting bricks, as the 300,000 rifles and 10,000 armoured vehicles they supposedly have in reserve turn out to have been magically replaced by 10 broken muskets and a pedal bike.

And this is the main positive for the Ukrainians. Russia can fill the front line with reservists all they like but if they can't supply them with weapons ammo and equipment, they really won't add a thing militarily.

Ukraine must continue to focus on attacking Russian logistics. The west must up it's supply of sophisticated long range weaponry

 

[Eric the meek]

You forget, he does not care one jot about cannon fodder or his own people, he is narcissist and does not care for anyone else.

No, I didn't forget that. I wasn't talking about the lives of 300,000 civilians or troops. Remember the mobile mortuaries at the beginning of the war? He wanted to remove the evidence.

I was talking about his reputation back home in Russia, about which he most certainly does care. He goes to the most extraordinary lengths, lying through his teeth to protect it.

 

[Insel affe]

No, I didn't forget that. I wasn't talking about the lives of 300,000 civilians or troops. Remember the mobile mortuaries at the beginning of the war? He wanted to remove the evidence.

I was talking about his reputation back home in Russia, about which he most certainly does care. He goes to the most extraordinary lengths, lying through his teeth to protect it.

Your missing the point (or maybe I am) he does not ultimately care about Russians losing their lives, if he can come up with a plausible lie as to why he used or uses nuclear weapons he will. It was our last line of defence, it is a false flag, the west launched a nuclear strike.
You don't think he is capable ?
I do, he will clearly be backed into a corner, he can send all the ill prepared Russians he wants to the front line.
It won't do a damn thing, the Ukrainians will fight on for their freedom, they will not recognise the annexed states, they will not surrender and neither should they.

Leaving one option for Putin, he cannot be seen to lose at any cost.

The last option he has is....

"According to the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, Putin could potentially turn to nuclear weapons if he perceived an "existential threat" to the Russian state or regime. He could regard a possible defeat in Ukraine as an existential threat to his regime"


That is how I see it, hopefully I am wrong.

 

[Mellotron]

Leaving one option for Putin, he cannot be seen to lose at any cost.

There is no way he can use nukes then present anything as any sort of win. By using nukes, he would be acknowledging that he has lost, and he would be choosing to end his own life. If you are right and he is a narcissist, they care about protecting themselves above all others.

I just don't see it, it doesn't fit his goals and objectives at all.

 

[jakarta]

Russians clearly getting their arses handed to them - would be hilarious if it hadn't been for the terrible damage they have done to the Ukraine.

 

[beorhthelm]

Your missing the point (or maybe I am) he does not ultimately care about Russians losing their lives, if he can come up with a plausible lie as to why he used or uses nuclear weapons he will. It was our last line of defence, it is a false flag, the west launched a nuclear strike.
You don't think he is capable ?
I do, he will clearly be backed into a corner, he can send all the ill prepared Russians he wants to the front line.
It won't do a damn thing, the Ukrainians will fight on for their freedom, they will not recognise the annexed states, they will not surrender and neither should they.

Leaving one option for Putin, he cannot be seen to lose at any cost.

The last option he has is....

"According to the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, Putin could potentially turn to nuclear weapons if he perceived an "existential threat" to the Russian state or regime. He could regard a possible defeat in Ukraine as an existential threat to his regime"


That is how I see it, hopefully I am wrong.

if this were a serious assement with high conviction, would suggest best option is to concede east Ukraine to prevent Russia losing and launching a nuke strike. no body is considering this option. his address is mostly for domestic consumption, his warnings dont say anything specific and given interpretion.

 

[Insel affe]

There is no way he can use nukes then present anything as any sort of win. By using nukes, he would be acknowledging that he has lost, and he would be choosing to end his own life. If you are right and he is a narcissist, they care about protecting themselves above all others.

I just don't see it, it doesn't fit his goals and objectives at all.

I get that, but if he is facing defeat on the ground.
surely he faces defeat and ousting at home, to overt that his last card is to let loose one nuclear weapon, hoping that there is no retaliation of all out Armageddon, gambling on world powers say enough is enough and don't wish to go down that road, world powers I believe would
not immediately retaliate and be responsible for the end of the world, that is what he will be banking on, and he can then say he won, the west backed down.

 

[Eric the meek]

Your missing the point (or maybe I am) he does not ultimately care about Russians losing their lives, if he can come up with a plausible lie as to why he used or uses nuclear weapons he will. It was our last line of defence, it is a false flag, the west launched a nuclear strike.
You don't think he is capable ?
I do, he will clearly be backed into a corner, he can send all the ill prepared Russians he wants to the front line.
It won't do a damn thing, the Ukrainians will fight on for their freedom, they will not recognise the annexed states, they will not surrender and neither should they.

Leaving one option for Putin, he cannot be seen to lose at any cost.

The last option he has is....

"According to the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, Putin could potentially turn to nuclear weapons if he perceived an "existential threat" to the Russian state or regime. He could regard a possible defeat in Ukraine as an existential threat to his regime"


That is how I see it, hopefully I am wrong.

No, I'm not missing the point. I'm not saying he will not use nuclear weapons. I'm asking the question, 'will he?'.

It's a valid question to ask. I obviously don't know the definitive answer. Nobody does. Perhaps Putin himself doesn't.
I agree with you that he doesn't care about his own citizens. That comes across very clearly.

To repeat myself, he is concerned about his reputation. His legacy. Not his citizens. Pressing the nuclear button means his 'special nuclear operation' has failed.

Incidentally, he has another option. He can retreat.

 

[Insel affe]

No, I'm not missing the point. I'm not saying he will not use nuclear weapons. I'm asking the question, 'will he?'.

It's a valid question to ask. I obviously don't know the definitive answer. Nobody does. Perhaps Putin himself doesn't.
I agree with you that he doesn't care about his own citizens. That comes across very clearly.

To repeat myself, he is concerned about his reputation. His legacy. Not his citizens. Pressing the nuclear button means his 'special nuclear operation' has failed.

Incidentally, he has another option. He can retreat.

He will never retreat, we both know that.
To be clear I am not arguing with you, I feel he has the capability to just to do it, as much as the west thinks he won't.
So my opinion is he would, if all other options fail and he has just one option left, he would.

 

[Icy Gull]

I get the impression we are going to have to call his bluff with the potential devastating repercussions or accept that he can carry on with his genocidal adventure

I am pleased it's not a decision that I will have to be a part of

I live in hope that there are some more rational and intelligent people in his circle and they sort this internally, not great hope though.

 

[Eric the meek]

He will never retreat, we both know that.
To be clear I am not arguing with you, I feel he has the capability to just to do it, as much as the west thinks he won't.
So my opinion is he would, if all other options fail and he has just one option left, he would.

Actually, he has retreated at least twice - on the ground, Snake Island, and during the recent Ukrainian advance. At sea, following the sinking of the Moskva, he withdrew all ships to a safe distance off the Ukrainian coast. I think I recently read that he had withdrawn his Black Sea nuclear subs from Crimea. I appreciate these are withdrawals in the field, and not necessarily strategic withdrawals, but a few more Ukrainian offensives, and we could see a rout. The Russian military is on life support, and winter is coming in a foreign country they've just invaded and committed war crimes in. They don't want to be there, and the Ukrainians would like their country back. Everywhere they go, the locals will help the Ukrainian army and report movement by the Russians.

So. Will he or won't he? Try not to get too concerned by the sabre-rattling. It's what Russians do. Many of them are career criminals, unelected, rule by fear, threat, bluff, strong arm tactics, the odd assassination or poisoning, occasional false flag operation, and lately a full scale invasion. Now they're running low on troops, morale, ammo, friends and money. I can't be sure, but I suspect these latest events are a good sign.

I do understand your last sentence. Let's hope we don't get to find out.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Will he use nuclear weapons?

We have to acknowledge this is the great unknown. There are arguments either way, but given the gravity of the outcome, we have to entertain the possibility.

What I think we can say with much more certainty is that it’s wildly unlikely that it will be aimed at anything other than targets in Ukraine. I don’t think Kiev is the most likely target, it has huge symbolic significance. Lviv also unlikely, too near Poland. Also anywhere with significant numbers of Russian speakers I couldn’t see.

Any nuclear strike would more likely be aimed at suppressing resistance. One potential outcome is a nuclear strike outside a large population centre, somewhere in the middle of the country, likely uses as a warning shot against further resistance.

My only concrete opinion is that the west will not get involved in this. The horror will soon give way to the fear of provoking wider nuclear conflict. All levers available to punish or regulate his behaviour have been pulled and have failed, so I don’t see Russia paying a large additional penalty for escalation of this nature.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Actually, he has retreated at least twice - on the ground, Snake Island, and during the recent Ukrainian advance. At sea, following the sinking of the Moskva, he withdrew all ships to a safe distance off the Ukrainian coast. I think I recently read that he had withdrawn his Black Sea nuclear subs from Crimea. I appreciate these are withdrawals in the field, and not necessarily strategic withdrawals, but a few more Ukrainian offensives, and we could see a rout. The Russian military is on life support, and winter is coming in a foreign country they've just invaded and committed war crimes in. They don't want to be there, and the Ukrainians would like their country back. Everywhere they go, the locals will help the Ukrainian army and report movement by the Russians.

So. Will he or won't he? Try not to get too concerned by the sabre-rattling. It's what Russians do. Many of them are career criminals, unelected, rule by fear, threat, bluff, strong arm tactics, the odd assassination or poisoning, occasional false flag operation, and lately a full scale invasion. Now they're running low on troops, morale, ammo, friends and money. I can't be sure, but I suspect these latest events are a good sign.

I do understand your last sentence. Let's hope we don't get to find out.

I was thinking the same mate. Retreat might be something he has no choice over.

 

[jakarta]

Would love to see a Ukranian drive to Mariupol thus cutting their forces in two.

Suspect that would involve a lot of the Russian Forces crapping themselves.

 

[A1X]

My only concrete opinion is that the west will not get involved in this. The horror will soon give way to the fear of provoking wider nuclear conflict. All levers available to punish or regulate his behaviour have been pulled and have failed, so I don’t see Russia paying a large additional penalty for escalation of this nature.

I would say though that if that happens then he will open up a new rift with Beijing and Delhi, neither of whom will be wanting a nuclear war either and will both be extremely alarmed at this turn of events. The former is of particular concern to him, China has no intention of (a) losing it's customers in the west or (b) backing someone seen as an unleashed mad dog (they back North Korea but they are on a very tight leash, and for all the sabre-rattling they do with the US there is no way they would actually be allowed to do anything serious with it). Would China have any qualms about organising a regime change in Moscow (covertly)? I highly doubt it.

 

[jakarta]

Private Eye Readers will be no doubt entertained by Page 31 where 'A Tank Driver writes'... (Vlad 'Mad' Putin Tank No. ZZZ)

I'll be honest, I've had better weeks. Still I can't complain. You can't - or you're dead. No, I've had a bit of a prang to be honest. Driving along. minding my own business, when wallop, everything breaks down. Bloody Ukrainians driving in the wrong direction. He should have been driving backwards and there he was coming straight at me! Next thing I know, tank's on the hard shoulder and I'm ringing up the RAC , you know the Russian Automobile Club, saying me tank's gone kaput. And they're saying "Sorry mate, we're very busy at the moment and we haven't got any spare parts". Etc. Etc..

p.s. I had a smart missile in the back of my tank the other week - very clever he was too...

 

[SeagullinExile]

Will he use nuclear weapons?

We have to acknowledge this is the great unknown. There are arguments either way, but given the gravity of the outcome, we have to entertain the possibility.

What I think we can say with much more certainty is that it’s wildly unlikely that it will be aimed at anything other than targets in Ukraine. I don’t think Kiev is the most likely target, it has huge symbolic significance. Lviv also unlikely, too near Poland. Also anywhere with significant numbers of Russian speakers I couldn’t see.

Any nuclear strike would more likely be aimed at suppressing resistance. One potential outcome is a nuclear strike outside a large population centre, somewhere in the middle of the country, likely uses as a warning shot against further resistance.

My only concrete opinion is that the west will not get involved in this. The horror will soon give way to the fear of provoking wider nuclear conflict. All levers available to punish or regulate his behaviour have been pulled and have failed, so I don’t see Russia paying a large additional penalty for escalation of this nature.

City killers aren’t what we should be worried about. It’s the use of low yield, battlefield tactical nukes that are the worry here.

 

[Eric the meek]

City killers aren’t what we should be worried about. It’s the use of low yield, battlefield tactical nukes that are the worry here.

I saw an interview with a retired US general the other day. Long story short - battlefield tactical weapons don't work because there are no worthwhile targets. For them to be effective, you need your enemy to be concentrated in one place. This is precisely what the Ukrainian army doesn't do. Instead it disperses widely, only coming together for an offensive.

 

[SeagullinExile]

I saw an interview with a retired US general the other day. Long story short - battlefield tactical weapons don't work because there are no worthwhile targets. For them to be effective, you need your enemy to be concentrated in one place. This is precisely what the Ukrainian army doesn't do. Instead it disperses widely, only coming together for an offensive.

It’s when they group together for an offensive that this sort of strike would happen tbf.

 

[Insel affe]

Not all Russians are that stupid then....

"Putin's address has raised fears that some men of fighting age would not be allowed to leave Russia, even though the country's defence minister said the call-up would be limited to those with combat experience.

Direct flights from Moscow to Istanbul in Turkey and Yerevan in Armenia - both destinations that allow Russians to enter without a visa - have sold out for today, although of course it's impossible to know when the flights were bought.

Even most routes with stopovers, including those from Moscow to Tbilisi in Georgia, were also unavailable, while the cheapest flights from the capital to Dubai were costing more than 300,000 roubles (£4,360; $4,945) - about five times the average Russian's monthly wage.

Google Trends data showed a spike in searches for Aviasales, which is Russia's most popular website for purchasing flights, according to Reuters news agency"