[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[beorhthelm]

I don't understand this, but reading the full set of tweets I see that Russia has an 86% chance of defaulting, or something like that, massively up, unsurprisingly I guess.

[tweet]1500811965949628420[/tweet]

Is this the sanctions taking effect, and possibly behind the latest 'offer' from Russia?

something i read said they have the cash to pay the coupons and upcoming repayments. its a matter of how they do it with the SWIFT sanctions and whether funds are frozen. they will likely be allowed to make payments due as otherwise it makes the debt worthless and hits the holders with ugly negative effects.

 

[aolstudios]

Promising how? It's what [MENTION=20814]amexer[/MENTION] suggests should also be considered. You're both mad.

To recognise stolen crimea and the puppet states taken by covert Russian forces, whilst also agreeing to change constitution to never join any blocs (NATO/EU) would be total capitulation and would collapse the Zelensky government.

What did those troops die for?
Is the this the gift after the murder of civilians and illegal reign of terror?

A lot of short sighted Neville Chamberlains on this thread

Putin would not stop, he'd declare victory, rearm and go again.

This has to be fought now and luckily Zelensky has more balls than our elected leaders and those here. Not 1 inch of territory should be conceeded.

fwiw, as Russia bleeds on the battlefield and financially, I believe there's a possibility (if the west continue to support Ukraine), they can get all territory back and win

This ^

 

[Eric the meek]

that in bold is significantly different wording from the Reuters version, which attributes it as a direct quote (https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www...-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07)

in this version its infering the current operation is being succesfully run, which we all know it isnt. it is not a firm condition of ending hostilities, its spin.

Good spot.

A word of clarification from me. A couple of people (not you [MENTION=599]beorhthelm[/MENTION]) may have misinterpreted my posts as agreeing with, or advocating acceptance of the latest Russian version of an olive branch.

Nothing could be further from the truth. All I'm doing is watching what they say, and speculating on what is prompting it.

Oh, and enjoying the ruble in freefall. It's now 0.69 of one US cent. That's a 26% fall today, after an initial 30% drop.

If the Russian troops ever make it home, their pay will buy less than half of what it would when they left home.

 

[Bry Nylon]

I don't understand this, but reading the full set of tweets I see that Russia has an 86% chance of defaulting, or something like that, massively up, unsurprisingly I guess.

[tweet]1500811965949628420[/tweet]

Is this the sanctions taking effect, and possibly behind the latest 'offer' from Russia?

When Vlad sees this guy parking his van outside the Kremlin, he'll know the game is finally up.

"Oh FFS. Sergei! Tell him I'm not in."

 

[amexer]

Promising how? It's what [MENTION=20814]amexer[/MENTION] suggests should also be considered. You're both mad.

To recognise stolen crimea and the puppet states taken by covert Russian forces, whilst also agreeing to change constitution to never join any blocs (NATO/EU) would be total capitulation and would collapse the Zelensky government.

What did those troops die for?
Is the this the gift after the murder of civilians and illegal reign of terror?

A lot of short sighted Neville Chamberlains on this thread

Putin would not stop, he'd declare victory, rearm and go again.

This has to be fought now and luckily Zelensky has more balls than our elected leaders and those here. Not 1 inch of territory should be conceeded.

fwiw, as Russia bleeds on the battlefield and financially, I believe there's a possibility (if the west continue to support Ukraine), they can get all territory back and win

As someone with close ties to Ukraine fully respect your views. But what are the alternatives. Surely Putin will not go away with nothing gained. If he stays with his military strength he will bomb Ukraine to bits. Are you saying that Ukraine will be able to put up such resistance that he will go away.

 

[usernamed]

As someone with close ties to Ukraine fully respect your views. But what are the alternatives. Surely Putin will not go away with nothing gained. If he stays with his military strength he will bomb Ukraine to bits. Are you saying that Ukraine will be able to put up such resistance that he will go away.

Just a thought:- Putin has no problem lying to his people on every other subject, there’s no reason he can’t say that he’s successfully concluded his mission to “de-nazify” Ukraine and his troops are coming home.

It won’t wash outside Russia, but it seems he has a captive (depressingly accurate) domestic audience.

 

[Bold Seagull]

As someone with close ties to Ukraine fully respect your views. But what are the alternatives. Surely Putin will not go away with nothing gained. If he stays with his military strength he will bomb Ukraine to bits. Are you saying that Ukraine will be able to put up such resistance that he will go away.

It's a mute point anyway really because Ukraine isn't fighting some idealistic battle for Europe, they're fighting to save their own country. We cannot really have an idea of how they're feeling about disputed regions like Crimea and Donetsk being given up or having independent status, something they've experienced since 2014 anyway, compared to having the conflict end. Down to them really. They may feel stopping the Russian war machine at the gates of Kyiv with Crimea gone (de-facto gone since 2014) and independence to the likes of Donetsk (de-facto being run independently since 2014) as a great victory without any further bloodshed.

 

[Seasider78]

It's a mute point anyway really because Ukraine isn't fighting some idealistic battle for Europe, they're fighting to save their own country. We cannot really have an idea of how they're feeling about disputed regions like Crimea and Donetsk being given up or having independent status, something they've experienced since 2014 anyway, compared to having the conflict end. Down to them really. They may feel stopping the Russian war machine at the gates of Kyiv with Crimea gone (de-facto gone since 2014) and independence to the likes of Donetsk (de-facto being run independently since 2014) as a great victory without any further bloodshed.

A very good post and only Ukraine will know what is worth still fighting for. This will run and run if both stick to their positions and whilst Ukraine has the immediate visible damage Putin has already set Russia back decades.

However if Ukraine concede territory as a minimum what remains must have a element of deterrent that prevents Russia ever repeating this brutal invasion.

The fact any discussions or proposals are emerging to end this is a smaller glimmer of hope in an otherwise horrific situation

 

[Eeyore]

A very good post and only Ukraine will know what is worth still fighting for. This will run and run if both stick to their positions and whilst Ukraine has the immediate visible damage Putin has already set Russia back decades.

However if Ukraine concede territory as a minimum what remains must have a element of deterrent that prevents Russia ever repeating this brutal invasion.

The fact any discussions or proposals are emerging to end this is a smaller glimmer of hope in an otherwise horrific situation

This is the issue.

Only the USA and Russia can resolve this in my thoughts. Russia want a non-military Ukraine. Ukraine will never agree to that.

I'm in the minority in saying that Ukraine should not be in NATO. But there should be the buffer and binding international agreements between countries concerning it to guarantee peace.

The problem is Putin has gone too far I fear. I just don't know how this will end. Ukrainians now suffering because of the ideologies of two aggressive proxy empires.

[MENTION=16159]Bold Seagull[/MENTION] summarises this well.

 

[dazzer6666]

UK DEC donations now over £100m ......£1m+ an hour since launch

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60647982

 

[essbee1]

something i read said they have the cash to pay the coupons and upcoming repayments. its a matter of how they do it with the SWIFT sanctions and whether funds are frozen. they will likely be allowed to make payments due as otherwise it makes the debt worthless and hits the holders with ugly negative effects.

Can somebody explain the implications of Russia defaulting please? Ta.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Not only is this a very good barometer of the effect the sanctions are having on Russia, it's also, in and of itself, a massive, massive problem for them.

The value of the Ruble has dropped by very nearly half in the space of a month (and dropping). That makes it very difficult (and expensive) to import anything, if that's if your trade partners haven't already sacked you off. If you're a company with contractual commitments, the cost of those contracts is now double what it was. DOUBLE! Almost overnight.

The only way you can begin to cope with that is to pass on the cost to the consumer, something which will only cripple the economy further, and cause even more public discontent (though some of that will undoubtedly be 'steered' towards the west).

Businesses, could of course borrow to make up the shortfall .... at 20% interest rates!!!

Russia will surely just end up as a self contained country business-wise. It will be a complete backwater, albeit one so big, it might be able to sustain itself in isolation

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Wonder what our reaction would have been in 1941 if Hitler had offered peace in return for ceding the South Coast as part of Germany and giving independence to Scotland and Wales. Wouldn't wash.

A more realistic agreement would be the promise of a UN - overseen referendum on independence /joining Russia for the disputed regions, in the spirit of self-determination of peoples. But only Ukraine can make these decisions.

 

[Triggaaar]

Surely Putin will not go away with nothing gained.

This is such a defeatist attitude - 'give the bully something to make him go away'. Yeah, and then he'll come back for more.

The idea he won't go without gaining something also suggests he's winning. Even if he destroys Ukraine, he's not won anything.

If he stays with his military strength he will bomb Ukraine to bits. Are you saying that Ukraine will be able to put up such resistance that he will go away.

Ukraine doesn't have to make him go away. Keep sanctions in place that destroy Russia until he can't afford to stay, or dies etc. Then one day, Ukrainians can have their country back.

Give in to him, and then when he dies Ukraine will still be part of Russia for his eventual successor.

 

[beorhthelm]

Can somebody explain the implications of Russia defaulting please? Ta.

the bond (debt borrowing) become next to worthless, and holder have to write off or find someone to buy at a substantial discount. a hole in their balance sheet eitherway.

 

[Triggaaar]

The fact any discussions or proposals are emerging to end this is a smaller glimmer of hope in an otherwise horrific situation

No discussions or proposals have emerged to end this. I think you've misread them, or missed the small print.

 

[dazzer6666]

Can somebody explain the implications of Russia defaulting please? Ta.

Have a read of this : https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...ssias-first-external-debt-default-2022-03-02/

 

[beorhthelm]

Wonder what our reaction would have been in 1941 if Hitler had offered peace in return for ceding the South Coast as part of Germany and giving independence to Scotland and Wales. Wouldn't wash.

A more realistic agreement would be the promise of a UN - overseen referendum on independence /joining Russia for the disputed regions, in the spirit of self-determination of peoples. But only Ukraine can make these decisions.

its more like Germany pulling back from France, Poland, Low Countries, and staying with Austria and bits of Czech republic. i'd wager that would have washed back in 1941. different times.

some sort of innovative solution with UN might be a way forward. about time they did something useful.

 

[essbee1]

the bond (debt borrowing) become next to worthless, and holder have to write off or find someone to buy at a substantial discount. a hole in their balance sheet eitherway.

Thanks beorhthelm. I just pray to God that the Russian economy goes down the pan as soon as humanly possible so that they realise they
cannot win.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Can somebody explain the implications of Russia defaulting please? Ta.

All governments borrow to cover day to day fluctuations in cash flow. The quick answer is, this will go from hard, to near impossible to access this money in the foreseeable future.

If they default, it's similar to individual bankruptcy in that future lending would be near impossible to secure.

In cases where there is a sovereign default the IMF often steps in to provide emergency funding. Good luck negotiating that one Putin

The debt is likely to be made in large part to institutions, (pension funds etc) who are far less likely to invest any money in the country if the guarantee they will get it back is gone. Private investment is an essential if any country wants to develop itself.