[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[amexer]

This sounds promising...

[tweet]1500800513541275649[/tweet]

When did Kremlin say this. If it is the latest statement AGREE NOW

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

This sounds promising...

[tweet]1500800513541275649[/tweet]

It would take a phenomenal leap of trust for the Ukrainians to believe that. The Kremlin lied through it's teeth about not invading Ukraine for months (and has lied about everything of consequence for a decade)

Would those states really be independent? They would be effectively Russia

The Ukranians are no way going to go for it. If this is did originate from the Kremlin, it show's they're rattled

 

[atomised]

This sounds promising...

[tweet]1500800513541275649[/tweet]

Does sound promising but only yesterday they were reiterating their previous complete demilitarisation demands. If the last couple of days of promised ceasefires to allow evacuation tell us anything it's to not take these Russian statements at face value until they back them up

 

[pb21]

When did Kremlin say this. If it is the latest statement AGREE NOW

It would take a phenomenal leap of trust for the Ukrainians to believe that. The Kremlin lied through it's teeth about not invading Ukraine for months (and has lied about everything of consequence for a decade)

Would those states really be independent? They would be effectively Russia

The Ukranians are no way going to go for it. If this is did originate from the Kremlin, it show's they're rattled

I think this would be recent, the twitter account posts regular short updates, always correct previously, however only snippets, so not the whole picture.

 

[Baldseagull]

Not seen it raised yet but Putin is allowing people to leave Ukraine….but only if they make their way to Russia or Belarus. So effectively not letting anyone leave. Because we all know what fate would befall refugees. Likely they’d be placed in camps and then, Well, history tells us what could happen then.

Means mostly pro Russian and ethnic Russian Ukrainians will enter.

 

[beorhthelm]

This sounds promising...

Ukraine wouldnt like it, that would represent a strategic loss for Russia, nothing tangible gained and army and economy decimated.

source is reuters, also add neutrailty to constitution. we've not moved from the start, however indicates Russia know they cant feasibly acheive anything more.
https://www.reuters.com/world/kreml...-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07

 

[Triggaaar]

Putin will not stop if any chance he gains nothing. Get round table and recognise Crimea and the 2 Russian speaking parts of Ukraine as now part of Russia.

I wouldn't.

If that's offered, Putin will see that as the start of things he's being offered, continue the war and keep asking for more.
And even if that was accepted, what then? Are we to suddenly stop sanctions, because presumably he'd only agree to stop if we did. Which leaves Ukraine destroyed, and Russia getting off scot free. But like I say, I don't think he'd stop anyway.

I think a better option is to keep going with ever increasing sanctions to the point that Russia cannot go on without an end to the hostilities, and they're the ones asking for it to stop. Of course we know that Putin won't want to admit defeat, but he doesn't have to because he can just make up any lies in Russia he likes. He can tell them he's stopped Russian speakers in Ukraine from being killed if that helps make it look like he's done something.

Like some of the politicians are saying, one way or another, Putin must fail. If he doesn't, another country will be next.

 

[Billy the Fish]

This sounds promising...

[tweet]1500800513541275649[/tweet]

Yes.........

But Ukraine will join NATO and start application for the EU

 

[LamieRobertson]

This sounds promising...

[tweet]1500800513541275649[/tweet]

Trust…bargepole..Putin

 

[Bry Nylon]

If this does have some basis in truth, someone better tell all those Russian troops who've abandoned their 40-mile convoy and ****ed off to Centre Parcs Kyiv until it's all over.

 

[beorhthelm]

I wouldn't.

If that's offered, Putin will see that as the start of things he's being offered, continue the war and keep asking for more.
And even if that was accepted, what then? Are we to suddenly stop sanctions, because presumably he'd only agree to stop if we did. Which leaves Ukraine destroyed, and Russia getting off scot free. But like I say, I don't think he'd stop anyway.

I think a better options is to keep going with ever increasing sanctions to the point that Russia cannot go on without an end to the hostilities, and they're the ones asking for it to stop. Of course we know that Putin won't want to admit defeat, but he doesn't have to because he can just make up any lies in Russia he likes. He can tell them he's stopped Russian speakers in Ukraine from being killed if that helps make it look like he's done something.

Like some of the politicians are saying, one way or another, Putin must fail. If he doesn't, another country will be next.

well you make immediate withdrawal part of the agreement and nothing changes until every Russian unit has left Ukraine. sanctions would need to unwind at some pace to be negotiated too.
trouble with not doing that, what else are the criteria for end of war and removal of sanctions? full withdrawal from Crimea and Donbass? if you leave him with nothing to sell (he can pretend he's purged imaginary nazis in this action), he has nothing to gain from ending the war. keep going with sanctions will be realitively easy (incoming recession aside) for us, while leading to large loss of life in Ukraine.

 

[amexer]

I wouldn't.

If that's offered, Putin will see that as the start of things he's being offered, continue the war and keep asking for more.
And even if that was accepted, what then? Are we to suddenly stop sanctions, because presumably he'd only agree to stop if we did. Which leaves Ukraine destroyed, and Russia getting off scot free. But like I say, I don't think he'd stop anyway.

I think a better options is to keep going with ever increasing sanctions to the point that Russia cannot go on without an end to the hostilities, and they're the ones asking for it to stop. Of course we know that Putin won't want to admit defeat, but he doesn't have to because he can just make up any lies in Russia he likes. He can tell them he's stopped Russian speakers in Ukraine from being killed if that helps make it look like he's done something.

Like some of the politicians are saying, one way or another, Putin must fail. If he doesn't, another country will be next.

Should jump at chance to agree this before Kiev is bombed to bits. Better then to be negotiating about the future
relations with Russia during peacetime. During post war talks have to make it plain that if he invades any other country whole of europe will go in with guns blazing. He has to know they mean it

 

[beorhthelm]

irony, if i understand correctly, agreement to cede Crimea and Donbas would mean Ukraine no longer have a territorial dispute and door opens to NATO.

 

[Eric the meek]

It's now been 'confirmed' on the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927 at 13:00

'Kremlin demands Ukraine recognise Crimea as Russian'

'Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Ukraine must recognise Crimea as Russian, and Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.
In addition to this, Peskov says Ukraine must amend its constitution and reject claims to enter any bloc (like Nato, for example).
He adds that Russia will finish the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine, and if these conditions are met Russian military action will "stop in a moment".
The Kremlin spokesman insists that Russia is not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine.'


So Russia wants it to stop if the above demands are met. But why?
Is it the toll on their military capability? Is it the Ukrainian resistance? Is it the sanctions? Is it internal anti-war protests?

 

[Triggaaar]

well you make immediate withdrawal part of the agreement and nothing changes until every Russian unit has left Ukraine. sanctions would need to unwind at some pace to be negotiated too. trouble with not doing that, what else are the criteria for end of war and removal of sanctions? full withdrawal from Crimea and Donbass?

No, he wouldn't have to withdraw from Crimea and Donbas, just withdraw from Ukraine.

It's important to note that if Crimea and the Donbas region are the offer for withdrawal, it makes a huge difference which side makes the offer. If Ukraine make the offer, Putin and his allies suddenly know they are winning, and they can push for more. And equally, if Putin offers that as a solution, Ukraine know they are winning and it's likely a matter of time before they leave either way.

if you leave him with nothing to sell (he can pretend he's purged imaginary nazis in this action), he has nothing to gain from ending the war.

If the sanctions weren't working, then you'd be right, he has nothing to gain from ending the war. But if the sanctions destroy Russia's economy, he loses everything. Given that Russian citizens are constantly brainwashed, I really don't think it's that difficult for Putin to continue lying and pretend that he's freed Ukraine from the imaginary problems he created, and pretend the 'special operation' which saved millions of Russians was worthwhile.

keep going with sanctions will be realitively easy (incoming recession aside) for us, while leading to large loss of life in Ukraine.

Yes, and the horrific loss of lives is not lost on me. But if you let him win, then any potential lives you save now will probably cost more in the future. Putin will look at what he can go for next, while China look to bomb Taiwan, safe in the knowledge that we'll just apply some sanctions until they agree to stop, as long as Taiwan becomes part of China. At some point you have to draw a line.

But of course a decision on ending this war should be down to the people of Ukraine, and what they want, and if they want to hand over Crimea and the Donbas region, that is their choice to make.

 

[Insel affe]

It's now been 'confirmed' on the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927 at 13:00

'Kremlin demands Ukraine recognise Crimea as Russian'

'Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Ukraine must recognise Crimea as Russian, and Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.
In addition to this, Peskov says Ukraine must amend its constitution and reject claims to enter any bloc (like Nato, for example).
He adds that Russia will finish the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine, and if these conditions are met Russian military action will "stop in a moment".
The Kremlin spokesman insists that Russia is not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine.'


So Russia wants it to stop if the above demands are met. But why?
Is it the toll on their military capability? Is it the Ukrainian resistance? Is it the sanctions? Is it internal anti-war protests?

Putin is on the ropes, he totally misjudged the passion and will of the Ukrainian people.
He probably is under pressure from oligarchs, and did not anticipate Russian people on the streets protesting against he war.
He can sell this to the Russian people as a victory, this is probably the only realistic best case scenario at the moment.
However if I was a Ukrainian, it is not an offer I would accept.

 

[Triggaaar]

Should jump at chance to agree this before Kiev is bombed to bits. Better then to be negotiating about the future
relations with Russia during peacetime. During post war talks have to make it plain that if he invades any other country whole of europe will go in with guns blazing. He has to know they mean it

The problem is, we haven't ever done that before, so he'll know we don't mean it. He'll be emboldened by another success, unless he's made to fail.

 

[Triggaaar]

It's now been 'confirmed' on the BBC:

No it hasn't!

He adds that Russia will finish the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine, and if these conditions are met Russian military action will "stop in a moment".

So basically, they're offering exactly what they demanded in the first place, which is nothing like saying we'll leave if you recognise Crimea and Donbas.

Demillitarise, and basically Ukraine is suddenly part of Russia, because that's what they'll suddenly 'vote' for.

The Kremlin spokesman insists that Russia is not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine.'

Oh my bad. I trust them.

 

[pb21]

No it hasn't!

So basically, they're offering exactly what they demanded in the first place, which is nothing like saying we'll leave if you recognise Crimea and Donbas.

Demillitarise, and basically Ukraine is suddenly part of Russia, because that's what they'll suddenly 'vote' for.


Oh my bad. I trust them.

Yes, the demilitarise and don't join NATO I'm sure will go to far. I wonder if ceding Crimea and Donbas only (if 'palatable' for Ukraine) would be enough for Putin, probably not.

 

[WATFORD zero]

It's now been 'confirmed' on the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927 at 13:00

'Kremlin demands Ukraine recognise Crimea as Russian'

'Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Ukraine must recognise Crimea as Russian, and Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.
In addition to this, Peskov says Ukraine must amend its constitution and reject claims to enter any bloc (like Nato, for example).
He adds that Russia will finish the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine, and if these conditions are met Russian military action will "stop in a moment".
The Kremlin spokesman insists that Russia is not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine.'


So Russia wants it to stop if the above demands are met. But why?
Is it the toll on their military capability? Is it the Ukrainian resistance? Is it the sanctions? Is it internal anti-war protests?

I would hope all four are behind this statement from the Kremlin. It's not for us to decide what happens next, but for the people of Ukraine. In the meanwhile we need to keep up the pressure and support, militarily, economically and socially until there is an agreement that Ukraine find acceptable