[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[PTC Gull]

Update from my friend close to Kyiv.. Its a bit shorter today. If you have any friends in Russia you can get info to, please pass this on.

Good morning all,
At 0700 local 0500 GMT a major fight broke out in the direction of Boryspil. We could hear the Russians were using Grad rockets fired in salvos of six to eight. It sounded as if the Ukrainians were using either tanks or artillery. So much for Putin's we are not attacking civilians' statements. The windows in the house rattled and sometimes the whole house shook. There have been no pronouncements on the various digital networks that the Ukrainians are using to pass information.
The village defense force patrols the village 24/7 so if anything comes our way we should get some form of heads up.

Slava Ukraini.

 

[Bold Seagull]

No, for two reasons. 1, we don't negotiate with terrorists. And 2, we don't believe the premise. Russia don't want a security guarantee. They know that NATO presents no security threat (something made clear through OSCE processes). Putin has this perverse plan to reunite Ukraine with Russia against their will and secure his legacy.

Well, point 1. yes we do hence we have a Good Friday Agreement. So we would sit at the negotiation table. Russia might not want a security guarantee but at some point they will want their economy back - it's all very well Putin wanting the Soviet Union returned, but the Soviet Union collapsed on the back of a failed economy, Putin might have some unicorn fantasy that they can make it on their own, but this war will be expensive, and their money won't last forever running short of friends and alliances. It is a tragedy to be talking in these terms, and equally scary, but I also don't believe you burn the world idealistically either, so as [MENTION=14365]Thunder Bolt[/MENTION] said earlier, hopefully there are people more clever than us that can find some way out of this, and topple this dictator in the process.

 

[amexer]

I have a different reaction. Admiration that they are not giving up. I would also fight to the death for my family so it is no surprise to me. The best thing we can do is strike back via NATO. In the meantime we do what we can. Sanctions have caused Russian oil to be trading at a huge discount to other similar grades ($18) as people won’t take the risk of buying it. That means that oil from other sources is going up in price and higher pump prices will follow. Let’s hope that people don’t whine about us doing our bit as at least we won’t have missiles flying into our homes.

For the sake of lives would prefer to be negotiating with Russia when Ukraine is in tact. Just dread the thought of world saying in months time how brave people were but Russia in occupation of a bombed country with thousands of good people dead. Give them part of Ukraine and assure them will not join Europe or NATo for 5 years. Many brave people out there but is it all worth it for number of lives that will be lost

 

[KZNSeagull]

For the sake of lives would prefer to be negotiating with Russia when Ukraine is in tact. Just dread the thought of world saying in months time how brave people were but Russia in occupation of a bombed country with thousands of good people dead. Give them part of Ukraine and assure them will not join Europe or NATo for 5 years. Many brave people out there but is it all worth it for number of lives that will be lost

It depends upon how highly you value freedom. The Ukrainians value it highly and rightly so.

 

[Driver8]

Interesting views from Garry Kasparov

https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1499059949930004486?s=21

 

[The Clamp]

For the sake of lives would prefer to be negotiating with Russia when Ukraine is in tact. Just dread the thought of world saying in months time how brave people were but Russia in occupation of a bombed country with thousands of good people dead. Give them part of Ukraine and assure them will not join Europe or NATo for 5 years. Many brave people out there but is it all worth it for number of lives that will be lost

Would you give up Brighton to the Russians? So they can come in and rape and kill your family?

 

[MJsGhost]

Interesting views from Garry Kasparov

https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1499059949930004486?s=21

I really hope he's right.

(here's the tweet imbedded, for ease)

[tweet]1499059949930004486[/tweet]

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

I find it really uncomfortable to hear anyone not directly affected by war saying, from a position of saftey, that there shouldn't be any negotiation in an effort to bring peace.

And how did you come up with that?
I said that Ukraine has a say in this and you implying that they do not is wrong. putin will only come to the table when forced by circumstance, his apparent desire to take Ukraine because he feels that it belongs to him indicates negotiation isn’t necessary in his vocabulary.

I find it really uncomfortable that you would sacrifice the Ukraine to appease putin …

FWIW, I served in the early eighties when war with the Soviet Union was a real possibility … so I don’t take any of this lightly.
Practicing for loading 600lb nuclear devices is a rather sobering thing to do as a teenager.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Hugo Rune]

Do we get many consumer products from Russia?

Smirnoff is a Diageo brand, so effectively British. Grey Goose is French and Absolut is Swedish.

I don't doubt there are some Russian vodkas available but any ban feels more like symbolism, rather than an effective financial sanction.

For clarity:

Smirnoff – Diageo GB owned and produced in U.S
Eristoff – Owned by Bacardi and produced in France
JJ Whitley – Halewood international UK owned and production has since moved from Russia to the UK because of the invasion
Cîroc – Diageo GB owned and produced in France
Ketel One – Diageo GB owned and produced in the Netherlands
Absolut - Pernod Ricard owned and produced in Sweden.

 

[herecomesaregular]

Ignoring that it started with a premeditated invasion. You don’t negotiate with people like putin, they only understand power and the desire to do what they want.
The NATO argument is quite frankly bollocks, he wants Ukraine in mother Russia and the Ukrainians do not. That in itself should stop you from indirectly supporting putin.
BTW, this isn’t about Russia and Ukraine. This is putin and the Ukraine.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Facts vs Perception. It is not bollocks if Putin/other Russian leaders (his replacement?)/the Russian population perceive Nato expansion as a huge threat. It's not facts that lead to actions I'm afraid. Imo there is nothing wrong with being aware and working with others' fear of Nato.

Personally, I appreciate [MENTION=42592]Here'sWally[/MENTION] pov on here, despite some unnecessary hounding from other posters who act like know-it-alls.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

For the sake of lives would prefer to be negotiating with Russia when Ukraine is in tact. Just dread the thought of world saying in months time how brave people were but Russia in occupation of a bombed country with thousands of good people dead. Give them part of Ukraine and assure them will not join Europe or NATo for 5 years. Many brave people out there but is it all worth it for number of lives that will be lost

Half of Ukraine,half of Lithuania, half of Sweden etc. We could invade France and settle for half of it. I honestly don’t mean that to come across sarcastically but don’t know how else to express it.

 

[portslade seagull]

For the sake of lives would prefer to be negotiating with Russia when Ukraine is in tact. Just dread the thought of world saying in months time how brave people were but Russia in occupation of a bombed country with thousands of good people dead. Give them part of Ukraine and assure them will not join Europe or NATo for 5 years. Many brave people out there but is it all worth it for number of lives that will be lost

Problem is in 5yrs it would start all over again unless some brave Russians take the dictator out. Never give into bullies as they will keep taking

 

[dangull]

Not defending the catastrophe which is going on at the moment, but the Russian regime will point out to recent USA led wars of regime change in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya as not being much different. It also could be said those countries had just about the same or more innocent casualties and are no better off today.
The USA didn't receive any threats of sanctions or needed UN approval to start their wars.
Russia and USA both trying to protect their interest as World powers.

 

[The Clamp]

Not defending the catastrophe which is going on at the moment, but the Russian regime will point out to recent USA led wars of regime change in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya as not being much different. It also could be said those countries had just about the same or more innocent casualties and are no better off today.
The USA didn't receive any threats of sanctions or needed UN approval to start their wars.
Russia and USA both trying to protect their interest as World powers.

I mean, it’s a hard point to argue against. Motivation wise at least. Method wise however, a lot different.

 

[portslade seagull]

The bit in bold is what troubles me:

If NATO does what (in your opinion) is the 'best thing', surely we can say with an (almost) certainty that it's game over for Ukraine. And us. And the Russians. And possibly most of civilisation on Earth.

Why do you consider that the 'best thing'?

Certainly not the best thing if you don't want things to spiral out of control rather quickly. Support them with arms though which the west is doing

 

[amexer]

Would you give up Brighton to the Russians? So they can come in and rape and kill your family?

Who knows Not saying it is the answer but if Ukraine gave up now far less chance of someones family killed and home bombed. I still think best way out will be mass protests in Russia. Maybe a mass leaflet drop to let Russian people the truth

 

[birthofanorange]

In the following scenario (hypothetical...for now), let's assume Putin is not bluffing re: nukes/WW3 :

If we (the UK) were in Ukraine's position, right now, I would also be pleading for all the help possible - arms, supplies, aid for refugees etc.
But, and here's the caveat; If I also knew (accepting that Putin is not bluffing), that asking for military assistance/boots on ground etc. from NATO, would mean the likelihood of WW3 ensuing, I would not want that.

I would fight, tooth and nail, with all the help I could get - but I would stop short of wanting the probable death of civilisation on my conscience.
Of course, Putin *could* be bluffing, if so.....go for it....but we DON'T KNOW.

For me, it's too big a gamble, for every person on the planet, and I wouldn't want that on my conscience.

 

[Questions]

Is this business worse than the invasion of Iraq ?

 

[vegster]

It's really affecting me today too.

The loss of life - on both sides - is utterly horrific, but the images of towns and citiies being utterly destroyed, already in ruins, is just so unfathomable to understand. What benefit, for anyone, can be served by this?

Whatever the intended end-game, sticking in a Putin-puppet leader or whatever, large parts of the country's infrastructure is going to be utterly trashed.

I fear that this will end up as an utter bloodbath. Ukrainians have every right to defend themselves and are truly heroic in putting up a fight but Putin has NO scruples whatsoever, he's happily bombed schools and hospitals in Syria. Additionally, Russia has been connected to the use of Chemical weapons in Syria too. I fear because he has always got away with incrementally worse behaviours over the years he really does not care now, he will use any weapons to justify his illegal war.

I heard someone say that at some point the West has to intervene as otherwise we will just stand by witness a second Holocaust. We might genuinely be a week away from a World War.

 

[birthofanorange]

Is this business worse than the invasion of Iraq ?

From an East or West standpoint?