[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

'Probably'.

The message is clear. Trump is hopeful, leaving his options open for aid to be reduced or remain the same according to the way the wind is blowing.

Reduce aid to Ukraine if Russia plays ball. Keep it the same if Russia doesn't. It also gives the US leverage if/when Russia tries again at some point.

We will see if it succeeds...

I hope you're right, but I don't trust Trump who has a weird Putin fetish and has consistently trashed Zelenskyy publicly.

Trump simply telegraphing he's going to cut Ukraine aid without first using that threat to keep aid or increase it, as leverage to get Putin to play ball is worrying me.

If he just cuts it, there's no motivation for Putin to do anything except press on for his maximalist goals.

 

[Eric the meek]

The West 'talking numbers' doesn't do anything, Russians won't see what Trump et al has to say.

That is quite true until it isn't. It will take a loosening of Putin's grip on the media for it to happen. Could it happen?

 

[GT49er]

Obviously Russia won't agree to anything unless they feel forced to.

It's really diffiMariupolcult to guess how long Russia and Ukraine can fight for, and how much the West are prepared to do. I wouldn't rule anything out.

Do you seriously believe Russia will turn round and say, yes of course we'll rebuild Mariupol at our own expense, and compensate all the inhabitants who were inconvenienced a bit? They will never admit culpability, and any 'peace' will also involve concessions to save their face.

 

[Triggaaar]

Obviously Russia won't agree to anything unless they feel forced to.

Do you seriously believe Russia will turn round and say, yes of course we'll rebuild Mariupol at our own expense, and compensate all the inhabitants who were inconvenienced a bit?

Did you misread what I wrote? I said they wouldn't agree, and you replied with 'do you seriously believe' they'll agree

They will never admit culpability, and any 'peace' will also involve concessions to save their face.

Only if Russia win.

 

[Triggaaar]

That is quite true until it isn't. It will take a loosening of Putin's grip on the media for it to happen. Could it happen?

For Russia to lose grip on their media means Russia losing full-stop, at which point there'll be no point in Trump saying 'do what we want or we release numbers' because it'll already be over for Russia.

 

[GT49er]

Did you misread what I wrote? I said they wouldn't agree, and you replied with 'do you seriously believe' they'll agree

No I didn't misread anything. You said they wouldn't agree unless forced to. That won't happen - the west will compromise. Sorry, but whatever 'peace' deal is ever agreed, it will look like utter shit to Ukraine.

 

[Triggaaar]

No I didn't misread anything. You said they wouldn't agree unless forced to. That won't happen - the west will compromise.

You're not grasping English here. By all means state that you don't think that the West and Ukraine will force anything on Russia, but you replied:

Do you seriously believe Russia will turn round and say, yes of course we'll rebuild Mariupol at our own expense, and compensate all the inhabitants who were inconvenienced a bit?

Obviously I have stated the opposite of what you're suggesting. I've stated that Russia won't agree to things, and you've replied with 'so you think Russia will agree to things'.

Sorry, but whatever 'peace' deal is ever agreed, it will look like utter shit to Ukraine.

That may be the case. But if Russia's economy is collapsing and Ukraine are able to fight on, it might not be.

 

[Eric the meek]

I hope you're right, but I don't trust Trump who has a weird Putin fetish and has consistently trashed Zelenskyy publicly.

Trump simply telegraphing he's going to cut Ukraine aid without first using that threat to keep aid or increas it, as leverage to get Putin to play ball is worrying me.

If he just cuts it, there's no motivation for Putin to do anything except press on for his maximalist goals.

But he didn't say he's going to cut Ukraine aid. He said 'probably', which may be a way to get Putin to the table.
I would like to think he chose that word carefully.

What else has Trump said? Putin has lost. It's time to stop the killing. Other things he has said are more ambiguous. Problematic. Trump says everything, to cover all bases.

None of us can see into the future. But if I could, all things considered, I probably wouldn't be looking at a Putin victory, either soon, or ever.

 

[raymondo]

But he didn't say he's going to cut Ukraine aid. He said 'probably', which may be a way to get Putin to the table.
I would like to think he chose that word carefully.

What else has Trump said? Putin has lost. It's time to stop the killing. Other things he has said are more ambiguous. Problematic. Trump says everything, to cover all bases.

None of us can see into the future. But if I could, all things considered, I probably wouldn't be looking at a Putin victory, either soon, or ever.

I thought it interesting that Trump said "Putin has lost" . At first I thought this a positive statement for Ukraine (my emotions kicking in) but the more I think about it I'm far less sure. If Trump spins it as Russia lost 700k, therefore Putin lost, therefore Ukraine has won, therefore freeze the borders where they are..... that's the cynic in me that isn't convinced there's much meaning in the words.

 

[GT49er]

You're not grasping English here. By all means state that you don't think that the West and Ukraine will force anything on Russia, but you replied:



Obviously I have stated the opposite of what you're suggesting. I've stated that Russia won't agree to things, and you've replied with 'so you think Russia will agree to things'.




That may be the case. But if Russia's economy is collapsing and Ukraine are able to fight on, it might not be.

You really don't like being contradicted, do you.

 

[Eric the meek]

For Russia to lose grip on their media means Russia losing full-stop, at which point there'll be no point in Trump saying 'do what we want or we release numbers' because it'll already be over for Russia.

Or a loosening of the control over the media, might be the catalyst, the cause of change in Russia, and not the result. Putin may see the way the wind is blowing, and feel he has no option but to pander to the peaceniks. Or maybe someone else will do it for him. One effect might be to allow the propagandists a longer leash and generously allow the peasants to know a little more detail of the world around them.

I'm just ruminating of course. This is Russia. A country with fountains and rivers of shit. Putin and the Kremlin are under pressure like never before.

One prediction I'm prepared to make, is that I believe we will see some serious finger-pointing and scapegoating shortly.

Apart from that, anything could happen. Anything. As you say elsewhere, I wouldn't rule anything out.

 

[Triggaaar]

You really don't like being contradicted, do you.

No issue with you disagreeing with me. You think there's no chance Ukraine get a good deal out of this, and you may well be right. But I don't like it being made out I said one thing when I said the opposite.

 

[Triggaaar]

I thought it interesting that Trump said "Putin has lost" . At first I thought this a positive statement for Ukraine (my emotions kicking in) but the more I think about it I'm far less sure.

Yeah that's looking at the positives.

If Trump spins it as Russia lost 700k, therefore Putin lost, therefore Ukraine has won, therefore freeze the borders where they are..... that's the cynic in me that isn't convinced there's much meaning in the words.

I think that's past being cynical. Ukraine has lost a lot more (civilians, cities etc), so if Russia gets to keep land and have sanctions removed, then Russia has won. I can't see why Trump would call that Russia losing, but to be honest we may as well try and interpret what a seagull is thinking.

 

[Eric the meek]

I thought it interesting that Trump said "Putin has lost" . At first I thought this a positive statement for Ukraine (my emotions kicking in) but the more I think about it I'm far less sure. If Trump spins it as Russia lost 700k, therefore Putin lost, therefore Ukraine has won, therefore freeze the borders where they are..... that's the cynic in me that isn't convinced there's much meaning in the words.

Emotions are entirely understandable. We are all human. Well, you are. I'm not. I'm a Russian chatbot, employed to make you all feel better.

But to prove that I'm not, that 700k of losses I thought was very interesting. I read it as Trump cranking up the pressure on Putin, for the reasons I've covered elsewhere. He also highlights 'Putin has lost' in the same colour as the 700,000. He links the two things, so that it is clear to the reader that the losses are Putin's losses. He caused them and they are his fault.

I think it is 'probably' significant.

 

[Eric the meek]

Time for a feelgood post.

Here's a frozen river of shit in Russia. Enjoy.

 

[raymondo]

Yeah that's looking at the positives.



I think that's past being cynical. Ukraine has lost a lot more (civilians, cities etc), so if Russia gets to keep land and have sanctions removed, then Russia has won. I can't see why Trump would call that Russia losing, but to be honest we may as well try and interpret what a seagull is thinking.

Yes, exactly.

 

[raymondo]

Emotions are entirely understandable. We are all human. Well, you are. I'm not. I'm a Russian chatbot, employed to make you all feel better.

But to prove that I'm not, that 700k of losses I thought was very interesting. I read it as Trump cranking up the pressure on Putin, for the reasons I've covered elsewhere. He also highlights 'Putin has lost' in the same colour as the 700,000. He links the two things, so that it is clear to the reader that the losses are Putin's losses. He caused them and they are his fault.

I think it is 'probably' significant.

Yes, I hope that's right, that there's some method in Trump's words. Would be nice if the words get referenced on Russian Propaganda channels (all of them) if only to deny.
I'm sure Trump won't forget that Russia tried to embarrass him by releasing photos of Melania.

 

[raymondo]

Time for a feelgood post.

Here's a frozen river of shit in Russia. Enjoy.

Nice one. As one response said... they'll find out what it is in the Spring

 

[Washie]

I hope you're right, but I don't trust Trump who has a weird Putin fetish and has consistently trashed Zelenskyy publicly.

Trump simply telegraphing he's going to cut Ukraine aid without first using that threat to keep aid or increase it, as leverage to get Putin to play ball is worrying me.

If he just cuts it, there's no motivation for Putin to do anything except press on for his maximalist goals.

The man Trump has put in charge of the Ukraine situation had said last year to congress that defeating Russia would be for the best as then they can focus on the real enemy which is China. Trump absolutely hates China, so it's not inconceivable that Trump has been talked into helping Ukraine.

 

[Eric the meek]