[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[aftershavedave]

A swing from 109 to 113 was a sell trade, not a buy.

yes of course. what i'm saying is that the interventions aren't working. they can buy rubles to appreciate the currency, but the market wants a further depreciation, so it happens anyway. knowing that the "natural" position is say 115 today, it will move there anyway, the moreso in the "knowledge" that the russian bank will buy at ever more cost, until they can't

 

[Eric the meek]

yes of course. what i'm saying is that the interventions aren't working. they can buy rubles to appreciate the currency, but the market wants a further depreciation, so it happens anyway. knowing that the "natural" position is say 115 today, it will move there anyway?

Ah I see what you mean. I've been assuming that it is the Americans (institutional buyers, billionaires or even state sponsored buying) doing the big trades to move the price. But yes, it is possible it is the central bank itself. Shorting your own currency. Hmmm.

However, the big trades yesterday, and today, came after midday. After the Americans have got up.

Hover over the graph. Before midday - small trades. After midday - larger trades. The opening spike is automatic trades made overnight, being executed the minute the market opens.

USD/RUB Currency Exchange Rate & News - Google Finance

Get the latest United States Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD / RUB) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.

www.google.com

 

[Triggaaar]

Thread by @ThreshedThought on Thread Reader App

@ThreshedThought: Let’s take a look at the economic side of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A 🧵 Once wars go beyond a couple of months, they tend to become a battle of the economies—that is, who is...

threadreaderapp.com

 

[GrizzlingGammon]

It won’t help his war effort, any weapons he imports have got 8% more expensive in the past few hours. The powerful oligarchs are losing wealth at an alarming rate, the Russian population will be finding that food will be more and more expensive in the shops. It increases the pressure on Putin from within Russia.

The things are going, they'll be finding food more expensive from the point of entering the shop to the point of paying.

 

[Triggaaar]

The things are going, they'll be finding food more expensive from the point of entering the shop to the point of paying.

200 rubles? It was only 150 earlier! This is daylight robbery. Fine, there's your 200.
Sorry it's 210 now.

 

[Eric the meek]

Putin should ask for an indexed linked pay rise. According to the Kremlin, he has a salary of $140,000 per annum.

 

[raymondo]

You wouldn't have thought anyone would be holding that many virtually worthless rubles, to be able to sell them, to achieve a swing of that magnitude, would you?

Maybe Kadyrov

 

[raymondo]

Well there are some very wealthy individuals, and organisations, with links to Russia. I guess someone is doing alright out of this somewhere.

Definitely two sides to every trade

 

[peterward]

Ah I see what you mean. I've been assuming that it is the Americans (institutional buyers, billionaires or even state sponsored buying) doing the big trades to move the price. But yes, it is possible it is the central bank itself. Shorting your own currency. Hmmm.

However, the big trades yesterday, and today, came after midday. After the Americans have got up.

Hover over the graph. Before midday - small trades. After midday - larger trades. The opening spike is automatic trades made overnight, being executed the minute the market opens.

USD/RUB Currency Exchange Rate & News - Google Finance

Get the latest United States Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD / RUB) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.

www.google.com

Number 1 trend on X "RussiaBankCollapse"

please tell me Eric, you still have a bit more popcorn!

 

[A mex eyecan]

ooooh.

 

[raymondo]

Some interesting details inside

 

[Eric the meek]

Number 1 trend on X "RussiaBankCollapse"

please tell me Eric, you still have a bit more popcorn!

I can move onto crisps if necessary.

Now, the trading suspension happened directly after the swing from 109 to 113. That was evidently too much for the central bank.

Who was it? My money is still on the US. If I were Russian, I would be blaming the Americans for trying to bring down the ruble.

 

[essbee1]

I can move onto crisps if necessary.

Now, the trading suspension happened directly after the swing from 109 to 113. That was evidently too much for the central bank.

Who was it? My money is still on the US. If I were Russian, I would be blaming the Americans for trying to bring down the ruble.

What does suspending trading mean/how does it help in real terms for the ruble apart from I'm guessing stopping its freefall?

 

[timbha]

What does suspending trading mean/how does it help in real terms for the ruble apart from I'm guessing stopping its freefall?

Think it means there will be no ruble (or rubble!) trading, hence freezing the price at its “notional” current value. No one can dispose of their rubles other than to buy goods and services using rubles (as opposed to exchanging rubles for other currencies), however only the most stupid will believe they are holding their value so prices will probably rise. When/if trading restarts there is likely to be a sudden fall in the ruble’s value unless economic conditions in Russia have improved….. not sure how!

 

[peterward]

Ah I see what you mean. I've been assuming that it is the Americans (institutional buyers, billionaires or even state sponsored buying) doing the big trades to move the price. But yes, it is possible it is the central bank itself. Shorting your own currency. Hmmm.

However, the big trades yesterday, and today, came after midday. After the Americans have got up.

Hover over the graph. Before midday - small trades. After midday - larger trades. The opening spike is automatic trades made overnight, being executed the minute the market opens.

USD/RUB Currency Exchange Rate & News - Google Finance

Get the latest United States Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD / RUB) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.

www.google.com

I wonder if it could be Oligarchs?

Rather than slowly sink with the ship, try and steer it quickly into rocks and kick of a chain reaction that ousts Putin?

I reckon theyre all sick of him, albeit still to fearful to challenge directly.

 

[Mackenzie]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/russian-rouble-down-by-one-quarter-since-early-august-2024-11-27/

 

[Eric the meek]

What does suspending trading mean/how does it help in real terms for the ruble apart from I'm guessing stopping its freefall?

Sorry, but I don't really know.

In theory, it buys them time, and takes the heat out of the situation.

It may be worth stating the obvious - that no trades can go through. So there is now no movement in price. Sellers become holders of rubles, and they don't know for how long. This can have a negative effect on confidence, possibly even more than the price movements would have had.

 

[Triggaaar]

I wonder if it could be Oligarchs?

Rather than slowly sink with the ship, try and steer it quickly into rocks and kick of a chain reaction that ousts Putin?

I reckon theyre all sick of him, albeit still to fearful to challenge directly.

I wouldn't be surprised if they're dumping rubles. It would make sense for them to own a lot of them, and want to get rid of them. I'm not sure why people in the US would still have them.

 

[aftershavedave]

Ah I see what you mean. I've been assuming that it is the Americans (institutional buyers, billionaires or even state sponsored buying) doing the big trades to move the price. But yes, it is possible it is the central bank itself. Shorting your own currency. Hmmm.

However, the big trades yesterday and today, came after midday. After the Americans have got up.

Hover over the graph. Before midday - small trades. After midday - larger trades. The opening spike is automatic trades made overnight, being executed the minute the market opens.

USD/RUB Currency Exchange Rate & News - Google Finance

Get the latest United States Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD / RUB) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.

www.google.com

What does suspending trading mean/how does it help in real terms for the ruble apart from I'm guessing stopping its freefall?

In practice yes it will stop the freefall as there is no trading, but markets aren't stupid, if trade re-opens (did i read January, which is a long long time) it will absolutely tank, think 150-175 to the $ (sorry I've really screwed up the pagination here!)

 

[Triggaaar]

What does suspending trading mean/how does it help in real terms for the ruble apart from I'm guessing stopping its freefall?


In practice yes it will stop the freefall as there is no trading, but markets aren't stupid, if trade re-opens (did i read January, which is a long long time) it will absolutely tank, think 150-175 to the $ (sorry I've really screwed up the pagination here!)

Maybe Putin is hoping that Trump will help them in January, before they re-open?