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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)





















peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,209
I've seen this posted on two pro-Ukrainian twitter accounts:




You know thats lying propaganda...... not just because the Russians said it, but because it would require Jake Sullivan and Biden to authorise the use of deep strikes in Russia, and these 2 appeasement lite strategists are so shit scared of Ukraine winning and a Russian collapse, there's no way they will allow Ukraine to fire even British Storm Shadows without threats and arm twisting Ukraine.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,157
Wiltshire
You know thats lying propaganda...... not just because the Russians said it, but because it would require Jake Sullivan and Biden to authorise the use of deep strikes in Russia, and these 2 appeasement lite strategists are so shit scared of Ukraine winning and a Russian collapse, there's no way they will allow Ukraine to fire even British Storm Shadows without threats and arm twisting Ukraine.
Ukraine's own ballistic missile program needs more momentum
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,917
OK. I've considered posting this, and not posting this, as it is one of those WTF? tweets.

It could be true, it could be false, it could be a mistake by Belarus, Belarus genuinely shooting down a rogue Russian missile, or a genuine precursor to Belarus changing sides. Note that a few days ago, Belarus appeared to congratulate Ukraine on its Independence Day Celebrations.........

The fog of war.

 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,209
Ukraine's own ballistic missile program needs more momentum
Theyve anounced a successful test, i have no idea how these things work, but I'd guess it would still take a while to get the finished production ready and realiable missile into service en mass??
 




peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,209
OK. I've considered posting this, and not posting this, as it is one of those WTF? tweets.

It could be true, it could be false, it could be a mistake by Belarus, Belarus genuinely shooting down a rogue Russian missile, or a genuine precursor to Belarus changing sides. Note that a few days ago, Belarus appeared to congratulate Ukraine on its Independence Day Celebrations.........

The fog of war.


I saw that too in last couple of days and I just dont believe that Lukashenko knowingly ordered the downing of a Russian drone.

He is an illegitimte president, entirely propped up by Putins patronage, he has nowhere else to turn except Putin (unless he has some secret deal with Xi?), he's just moved most of his military onto Ukraines border, speculated to try and tie down Ukrainian troops there, I doubt thats something Lukashenko did without be compelled to by Putin.

He is a great survivor, and was good at playing Russia off against the west prior to being outcasted after stealing the election in 2020, but now he's a pariah totally reliant on Putin, he cant fart without Putins say so.

I would be less surprised if it was some type of bluff conceived by the Kremlin for Lukashenko to deliberatly shoot one down to try and curry favour or paint a false picture of impartiality for some ulterior motive that secretly suits Kremlin...... thats more believable than the puppet shooting down the missile of the puppet master who holds his life in his hands.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,917
I saw that too in last couple of days and I just dont believe that Lukashenko knowingly ordered the downing of a Russian drone.

He is an illegitimte president, entirely propped up by Putins patronage, he has nowhere else to turn except Putin (unless he has some secret deal with Xi?), he's just moved most of his military onto Ukraines border, speculated to try and tie down Ukrainian troops there, I doubt thats something Lukashenko did without be compelled to by Putin.

He is a great survivor, and was good at playing Russia off against the west prior to being outcasted after stealing the election in 2020, but now he's a pariah totally reliant on Putin, he cant fart without Putins say so.

I would be less surprised if it was some type of bluff conceived by the Kremlin for Lukashenko to deliberatly shoot one down to try and curry favour or paint a false picture of impartiality for some ulterior motive that secretly suits Kremlin...... thats more believable than the puppet shooting down the missile of the puppet master who holds his life in his hands.

Being in Putin's pocket is undoubtedly true.

Lukashenko has always struck me as being in too deep for his own incompetence, and being to a large degree unable to influence events around him.

I genuinely don't know what to think about this report of a Russian Shahed drone being shot down. So I return to my default position of it probably being another example of the current Ukrainian attempts to destabilise, which is what Ukraine is trying to do on a number of fronts.
 


Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,151
Being in Putin's pocket is undoubtedly true.

Lukashenko has always struck me as being in too deep for his own incompetence, and being to a large degree unable to influence events around him.

I genuinely don't know what to think about this report of a Russian Shahed drone being shot down. So I return to my default position of it probably being another example of the current Ukrainian attempts to destabilise, which is what Ukraine is trying to do on a number of fronts.
Is it possible that Lukashenko has lost / is losing control of his armed forces?
 






peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,209
You've just identified another possible scenario I hadn't thought of !

(This is inspite of the fact I was vaguely aware of a rumbling discontent in the Belarussian armed forces).
A little over a week ago he made a weird public address saying that "I wont be your president forever, all things come to an end" and "time has come to fully unite with Russia" with Ukrainain news all saying that Putins plan will be putting him out to grass and moving in his own puppet (youd expect to take control of Belarus military too?).......... that said, if Luka has any ounce of self preservation, which clearly he does, I'm sure he'll realise he has little to no use out of power, knows too much and will more than likely end the same way as Prigorzhin. He will know fully that Putin cannot be trusted even if he is wedded to him.
 


Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,151
It was only a few years ago that there was quite a significant protest movement against Lukashenko - ultimately it was put down, but I’m not sure the general population (around 10m - not a big country) is strongly aligned to Russia. But, like Ukraine, Putin will see Belarus as a critical buffer between Russia and the evil west.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
6,917
A little over a week ago he made a weird public address saying that "I wont be your president forever, all things come to an end" and "time has come to fully unite with Russia" with Ukrainain news all saying that Putins plan will be putting him out to grass and moving in his own puppet (youd expect to take control of Belarus military too?).......... that said, if Luka has any ounce of self preservation, which clearly he does, I'm sure he'll realise he has little to no use out of power, knows too much and will more than likely end the same way as Prigorzhin. He will know fully that Putin cannot be trusted even if he is wedded to him.
If you were Lukashenko, where would you run? Belarus somewhere? No. Russia? Er, maybe not. Is there any country that would give him safe haven?

Of course, you could replace Lukashenko with Putin in the sentence above. Any budding tyrants on this forum, note that this is how you will end up. Nowhere to go.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,157
Wiltshire
I haven't had time to research this drone downing, but here's an alternative...
- Russian drone malfunctions or has it's nav disabled by Ukraine
- Belarus/Russia notice it's off course, and they agree for Belarus to shoot it down.

Is that possible or am I missing more detail somewhere 🤔
 


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