The repression under the Russians must simply have been a living nightmare. I really can't find the words to describe the endless misery that the Hungarians were subjected to by their liberators. I visited Momento park when I was in Budapest. It was a harrowing experience.
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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)
- Thread starter vegster
- Start date
Good point. Although I don't know if it's their domestic or international policies that are the main.It would seem so!
That's a good point. I have similar experiences of the people I met as a tourist in those countries, and professional work colleagues there: mainly open minded, Democratic/west leaning.
I think Orban's support base is primarily rural, of which Hungary has plenty.
Ukrainian warplane fires weapon at target inside Russia for first time
"While damage assessment is still occurring, it is confirmed as a direct hit," a Ukrainian military source tells Sky News.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,451
I sense something of a milestone Raymondo.Ukrainian warplane fires weapon at target inside Russia for first time
"While damage assessment is still occurring, it is confirmed as a direct hit," a Ukrainian military source tells Sky News.news.sky.com
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,451
Youtube is awash with vids of how badly Russia is doing, with predictions of what will happen.
But this one, from the Military Show (I've posted stuff from them previously) is worth 20 minutes of everyone's time.
Well put together and well argued, it is a thought-provoking example of future gazing.
If true, Russia cannot afford to lose the war, win the war, or even negotiate a halfway house with a frozen conflict.
(The final minutes are a fascinating glimpse into China's tactics).
But this one, from the Military Show (I've posted stuff from them previously) is worth 20 minutes of everyone's time.
Well put together and well argued, it is a thought-provoking example of future gazing.
If true, Russia cannot afford to lose the war, win the war, or even negotiate a halfway house with a frozen conflict.
(The final minutes are a fascinating glimpse into China's tactics).
It feels like 'something'
Has Ukraine knocked out sufficient Russian air defense in that area that it can use more air power
SeagullinExile
Well-known member
More likely that are now using longer range munitions supplied by the West, avoiding air defenses.It feels like 'something'
Has Ukraine knocked out sufficient Russian air defense in that area that it can use more air power
That was very interesting thanks
.I'd read that Chinese mainstream banks were struggling with business with Russia because of sanctions.
Interesting that the high military salaries and death in service compensation payments are helping to prop up the Russian economy in some regions.
IF Russia won the war I can't imagine they'd have 30 million Ukrainians to assimilate. Assuming they won territory bit by bit (I don't even like to write this) surely there would be far more migration of refugees out of the country and into western Europe.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,451
Now that you mention it, I think Chinese banks had cropped up previously, but smaller Chinese banks circumventing the possibility of secondary sanctions had not crossed my mind.That was very interesting thanks
I'd read that Chinese mainstream banks were struggling with business with Russia because of sanctions.
Interesting that the high military salaries and death in service compensation payments are helping to prop up the Russian economy in some regions.
IF Russia won the war I can't imagine they'd have 30 million Ukrainians to assimilate. Assuming they won territory bit by bit (I don't even like to write this) surely there would be far more migration of refugees out of the country and into western Europe.
As for high military salaries and death in service compensation helping prop up regional Russian Federation economies - I didn't see that coming at all. But if true, what a strange, dystopian way for the ethnic republics to slowly discover the true scale of Russian casualties.....
As for your last paragraph, I agree completely. Russia has been weaponising migration for a while, using it alongside funding far right politicians in Europe, as an effective - weapon to foment unrest in Europe. I am also aware that Russia has encouraged migrants to cross from Russia into Finland and Poland.
Yes, I had to watch the bit about military salary (4 times average was it??) and compensation twice.
It's very sad to understand that certain politicians in Europe are happy to take money from Russia to further their personal aims. Well, I guess it's often more subtle than that, with the true source of the money unknown.
The weaponisation of migrants is a very difficult one. Short of bussing them over the border into Belgorod, with the Siberian battalion, or into Kaliningrad...no idea.
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- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,451
The Russian Black Sea fleet is not enough for Ukraine. They are now going for the Arctic fleet.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,451
A Russian SU-34 has crashed in North Ossetia, bordering Georgia. Whatever the truth, it is one plane fewer for Russia to use strong arm tactics over the Georgians.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,451
Something else for Russia to shout foul about. Cue 'unfriendly country', 'legitimate target' etc. Blah blah.
Very little news gets out of the Kremlin, but as the pressure mounts, keep an eye out for signs of panic, hitting the vodka etc.
The Clamp
Well-known member
I’m not convinced by this talk of Russia doing badly.
Because that’s not how it’s looking on the ground, is it.
Russia are a well funded, well backed, military power with the capacity to overwhelm Ukraine. And inch by inch it’s doing so.
People need to manage expectations.
Because that’s not how it’s looking on the ground, is it.
Russia are a well funded, well backed, military power with the capacity to overwhelm Ukraine. And inch by inch it’s doing so.
People need to manage expectations.
hampshirebrightonboy
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2011
- 1,038
Can't deny they are getting short of tanks and armoured vehicles now though.
I haven't seen a T72 for a while now - seems to be the old T60s and the odd T90 that they still producing - but not in the numbers required.
Think they will be really scraping the barrel soon.
- Nov 11, 2009
- 12,378
I don't know what sources you read. But I am convinced that Russia is actually doing pretty badly.
On the ground, when Ukraine ran out of weapons, they took a little more territory and a few inconsequential towns ruins at huge cost, but nothing much at all. And their much vaunted mass surge attack on Kharkiv has spectacularly failed at the cost of tens of thousands more dead Russians.
Ukraine has run them out of the black sea are more than holding their own as we write. Russia with its vast wealth and superior size has vastly less territory today than it did 3 months into the war. Its hardware is being decimated, its meat assaults are resulting in unsustainable levels of deaths. it cannot produce quickly enough to meet attrition of hardware and is relying on old Soviet stockpiles that will exhaust in time, it's economy beyond the headlines is structurally screwed.
There's no complacency. The future is far from certain and Ukraine prevailing will depend more on western resolve (especially post a potential Trump victory), but if western resolve remains, there is no path for Russia to "win" which is to take Kyiv and install a puppet regime.
It will collapse financially like the Soviet Union at some future point imho unless Putin is removed before that which is also a possibility.
The bigger picture is pretty bleak for Russia.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,451
First, I get what you're saying.
Don't underestimate the enemy. Don't get complacent. Today more than ever, Russia remains malevolent, defiant and is a real danger to world peace.
But has Russia got the capacity to overwhelm Ukraine? Let's look at the evidence.
At the beginning of the war, We all believed it had. We believed Putin's hype. So did Putin. We were shocked at the invasion. We didn't believe it. We were alarmed at the convoy heading towards Kyiv. A 40 mile convoy. We all thought that was it. But then the narrative began to change. The troops were poorly equipped, with little food, fuel and Chinese tyres that failed in not even combat conditions. The convoy never reached Kyiv. Stories of Ukrainian farmers nicking the abandoned tanks made us laugh.
Fast forward over two years, to right now on day 837 of the 3 day SMO, and has Russia overwhelmed Ukraine? The answer is an emphatic 'no'. Today, it occupies some 18% of the Ukraine land mass, and has offered to freeze the conflict, a kind offer which Ukraine has politely declined. So much for de-nazifying and de-militarising.
That is the reality, whether or not you think the Russian war machine is well funded and/or well backed. For context, Russia's GDP is a shade higher than that of Canada. And Italy. Or to put it another way, a tenth of the USA. IMO, China is not Russia's friend. Instead, it is planning how best to pick the bones of the Russian carcass.
Russia has showcased its military weaknesses to the world. It has lost power, influence, weapons, troops, friends, reputation, markets for its natural resources, trading partners, its economy and its future. Now on a war footing, the products of its economy are single use weapons.
If you haven't already done so, take a look at the video in post 15,786.
If you accept the figures, you will conclude that Russia has no way out of this war, win, lose or draw. Now - that - needs to be carefully managed, preferably by someone experienced in managing a rabble group of ne'er-do-wells.
I would put Ursula von der Leyen in charge of it. Offer a path, a roadmap, to peace. Long, long term of course, with milestones, dependencies etc. Begin to win the peace, way before the war is won or lost.