[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Shropshire Seagull]

Oh dear?

Can they not see that Russia instigated hostilities?
How about, maybe, pull back to your previous boarder - then observe cessation of hostilities?

But no, that would be a defeat, we MUST win this war [they say].

Aggressive bully getting its butt kicked - sad that people and property are being destroyed in the process ....

 

[Albion in the north]

Heroic Russia now playing the victim, with no sense of irony...

'Head of RT claims the West wants to colonize and enslave Russia'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqMe7Cg2iOM

'We offered them peace, just to leave us alone'.

This is the kind of propoganda theyve faced for many years. You can see why they are as arrogant and misinformed as they are. In Ukraine and other former Russian states as well as in Russia itself.

 

[Weststander]

DON'T WATCH RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA!!

It serves no happy purpose, it's the equivalent of watching a KKK video or Josef Goebbels newsreel.

I'm able to completely swerve internet lies with ease.

 

[beorhthelm]

I found this to be a very interesting analysis of how the war may end.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=auto_share

i skimmed, couldnt see a solid forecast of how the war ends. other than Putin withdraws forces to protect from disturbances in Russia.
trouble is, in Putin's mind and the decrees he's made, the occupied areas are now Russia. he has to cede Russian territory, something he's legally (Russian) probably not able to do. or a successor. i wonder if this is one of the primary reasons for the annexeations.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I found this to be a very interesting analysis of how the war may end.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=auto_share

I thought the article was strong on the military conflict but weak on predicting the outcome.

Putin has annexed 4 states and claimed them for Russia. He continues to bomb civilian targets and send convicts to the frontline, showing he has zero regard to the life of Russians or Ukrainians.

The West will continue to arm Ukraine, and you'd expect Ukraine to push the Russians back towards their own borders. Therefore, something needs to give but with tyrants like Putin it is normally swift and bloody.

I don't see him going quietly, whilst he is certainly capable of using a nuclear weapon. I think the likelihood is he will be deposed and die within a short time after that. I'm sure the West would be willing to cut a deal with the Russian oligarchs to accommodate them if they commit to removing Putin, turning back on the energy supply lines and assisting with the Ukraine rebuild.

 

[Igzilla]

i skimmed, couldnt see a solid forecast of how the war ends. other than Putin withdraws forces to protect from disturbances in Russia.
trouble is, in Putin's mind and the decrees he's made, the occupied areas are now Russia. he has to cede Russian territory, something he's legally (Russian) probably not able to do. or a successor. i wonder if this is one of the primary reasons for the annexeations.

I doubt anyone has a solid forecast of how it will all end. But his point remains valid: Wagner and Chechen militia (and possibly the Russian Army, eventually) withholding their best troops from the war in Ukraine with an eye to potential gain within Russia itself when it all unravels.

EDIT: I think it echoes one of the twitter threads from much earlier, either Trent Telenko or Kamil Galeev predicting the breakup of the Russian Federation.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I doubt anyone has a solid forecast of how it will all end. But his point remains valid: Wagner and Chechen militia (and possibly the Russian Army, eventually) withholding their best troops from the war in Ukraine with an eye to potential gain within Russia itself when it all unravels.

EDIT: I think it echoes one of the twitter threads from much earlier, either Trent Telenko or Kamil Galeev predicting the breakup of the Russian Federation.

It's plausible. All of which points to untrained barely armed conscripts being pushed straight to the front, which points to utter carnage as well as swathes of desertions and mutiny and swift Ukrainian advances through Russian lines

On the one hand it sounds great for Ukraine, on the other hand it gives rise to the possibility of Wagner having nuclear weapons

 

[beorhthelm]

I doubt anyone has a solid forecast of how it will all end. But his point remains valid: Wagner and Chechen militia (and possibly the Russian Army, eventually) withholding their best troops from the war in Ukraine with an eye to potential gain within Russia itself when it all unravels.

EDIT: I think it echoes one of the twitter threads from much earlier, either Trent Telenko or Kamil Galeev predicting the breakup of the Russian Federation.

missed that detail. does chime with something about the factions in Russia right now, military bloggers, Kadyrov-Prigozhin and ex-Army, and other commentry about the options maybe opening for provinces.

 

[Icy Gull]

I doubt anyone has a solid forecast of how it will all end. But his point remains valid: Wagner and Chechen militia (and possibly the Russian Army, eventually) withholding their best troops from the war in Ukraine with an eye to potential gain within Russia itself when it all unravels.

EDIT: I think it echoes one of the twitter threads from much earlier, either Trent Telenko or Kamil Galeev predicting the breakup of the Russian Federation.

In effect the exact opposite of Putin’s aims in February

 

[Triggaaar]

I found this to be a very interesting analysis of how the war may end.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=auto_share

It looks like that was written for [MENTION=33848]The Clamp[/MENTION]

 

[vegster]

I doubt anyone has a solid forecast of how it will all end. But his point remains valid: Wagner and Chechen militia (and possibly the Russian Army, eventually) withholding their best troops from the war in Ukraine with an eye to potential gain within Russia itself when it all unravels.

EDIT: I think it echoes one of the twitter threads from much earlier, either Trent Telenko or Kamil Galeev predicting the breakup of the Russian Federation.

Valid points ...the regions are less scared of Moscow now, they know the army is poorly led and poorly equipped...and getting worse all the time. I think we can expect a few breaking away from Russia and setting up an alliance with China or NATO.

 

[Baldseagull]

Seems Ukraine has a substantial reserve force :

[Tweet]1577836204309053440[/Tweet]

Some units if UAF are sending recruits away that they deem not suitable. Russia is sending pretty much anyone they can get their hands on. I think part of Russias problem is that companies and villages that have an input into who is drafted dont want to send their best, so essentially are selecting the people they would not miss so much.⁸

 

[sparkie]

Interesting map from 1919.

[Tweet]1577419860681756673[/Tweet]

I assume if Russia breaks up Ukraine won't want its lost territory up the Caspian Sea back.

Maybe that's why they haven't blown the Kerch bridge yet, lol.

 

[The Fifth Column]

Deluded woman. "They can't understand that other people are different, other nations are different."

They? They? Who is this 'they' that the daft bint is yammering about? If she substituted 'we' for 'they' she'd be right on the money! Is Putin going to send women to the front line? - in her case I hope so!

When Ukraine emerge victorious she should be one of those they force to visit the sites of war crimes and genocide committed by her beloved mother russia, much like the Germans were forced to clear the bodies from the concentration camps after WW2

 

[The Clamp]

It looks like that was written for [MENTION=33848]The Clamp[/MENTION]

I can’t read it because that requires a subscription. However, seeing as you have tagged me, I can only presume it’s very well written, concise, and eloquent ;-)

 

[Triggaaar]

I can’t read it because that requires a subscription. However, seeing as you have tagged me, I can only presume it’s very well written, concise, and eloquent ;-)

Use the website 12 foot ladder. It's just saying why people worry about nuclear war, and why they shouldn't. But it's not concise.

 

[Triggaaar]

When Ukraine emerge victorious she should be one of those they force to visit the sites of war crimes and genocide committed by her beloved mother russia

And then forced to join them.

 

[jakarta]

I know they want to get Donetsk back first but I would like the Ukranians to cut through to Mariupol which would split the Russian forces in two.

There would be some serious bedwetting in the Kremlin then.

 

[Eric the meek]

'Putin's dream of Russian victory slips away in Ukraine' - Sarah Rainsford, BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63160354

Read down to the end, and what are you left with? The feeling that this is the most dangerous stage of the war.

 

[Eric the meek]

And then forced to join them.

The punchline is that woman, Margarita Simonyan, head of RT, employs an American to teach English to her children.