[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[A1X]

Hope he goes for it….but I smell yet more bullshit

Yep, it’s a fairly obvious threat and one I suspect the nations of Europe have prepared for. Oil and gas is the only real leverage Russia has over them (hence why it is no coincidence that many of those who are known to or suspected to shill for Moscow in the west are trying to derail the “green agenda” or “net zero” to try and keep us all suckling at Moscow’s teat), the problem Putin and his cronies have is it’s obviously coming into spring when demand will naturally drop. This threat in October / November may well have carried more dread in the capitals of Europe than it does in March.

 

[aolstudios]

This is the issue.

Only the USA and Russia can resolve this in my thoughts. Russia want a non-military Ukraine. Ukraine will never agree to that.

I'm in the minority in saying that Ukraine should not be in NATO. But there should be the buffer and binding international agreements between countries concerning it to guarantee peace.

The problem is Putin has gone too far I fear. I just don't know how this will end. Ukrainians now suffering because of the ideologies of two aggressive proxy empires.

[MENTION=16159]Bold Seagull[/MENTION] summarises this well.

Would you be happy to live in a 'buffer'?..

 

[Eeyore]

My 60p bet is that if any nuclear arms are used of any size then we're all fooked.

You may have trouble collecting your winnings.

 

[amexer]

Just more victims of Putin. ( I don't mean Kadyrov's thugs or Wagner mercenaries obviously. )


[Tweet]1500465032966062082[/Tweet]

If only that could be heard by Russians. Millions would be on the street protesting

 

[Here'sWally]

Apparently the Ukraine security services have shot and killed one of the Ukrainian peace negotiators (for treason apparently), Denis Kireev.

 

[Eeyore]

Would you be happy to live in a 'buffer'?..

Don't know, ask Finland and [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] land.

Russia will not accept Ukraine as a member of NATO. And it's not about what the people want. This is a very Western-centric way of looking at it.

We all seem to agree that Putin is a **** of the highest order and has to be accountable for a murderous war. There were is no excuse or justification for it. But when you are looking at the goal of peace you have to listen to the beefs of both sides. However unpalatable that may seem. The goal here is peace and saving lives.

Let's take characters out of it for a moment. Forget Putin exists and just call his side 'Russia' without him in the equation.

If I was Russia I would not be happy about having a huge Western supported nation, with Western missiles on the terrain and military exercises being conducted on my lawn. I would see it as intimidation, however unlikely an invasion was. I would see it as humiliation. My Empire is no more, their proxy empire has grown.

What if Canada formed an alliance with China and Chinese forces were running around up there as well as missiles, how do you think the USA would take that ? (Honestly, give me your thoughts).

If Crimea/Eastern Ukraine want to join Russia that is a separate issue for negotiation. Putin has already lost huge face in this conflict and knows the boundaries.

But Ukraine cannot be de-militarised. This is why, for the sake of lives and peace, the USA & Russia need to sign an agreement. And, as unpalatable as it may sound, China may have a role. In my totally uneducated and ill-informed view (pretty much the same as most others) this is the way I see forward.

Russia will be paying for the actions on the international stage for many years. But, as irritating as it sounds, Putin will have to be given a way out.

There is a slightly confident part of me that feels this won't go on for that much longer. Or maybe I'm just trusting humanity to do the right thing.

 

[dejavuatbtn]

Don't know, ask Finland and [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] land.

Russia will not accept Ukraine as a member of NATO. And it's not about what the people want. This is a very Western-centric way of looking at it.

We all seem to agree that Putin is a **** of the highest order and has to be accountable for a murderous war. There were is no excuse or justification for it. But when you are looking at the goal of peace you have to listen to the beefs of both sides. However unpalatable that may seem. The goal here is peace and saving lives.

Let's take characters out of it for a moment. Forget Putin exists and just call his side 'Russia' without him in the equation.

If I was Russia I would not be happy about having a huge Western supported nation, with Western missiles on the terrain and military exercises being conducted on my lawn. I would see it as intimidation, however unlikely an invasion was.

What if Canada formed an alliance with China and Chinese forces were running around up there as well as missiles, how do you think the USA would take that ? (Honestly, give me your thoughts).

If Crimea/Eastern Ukraine want to join Russia that is a separate issue for negotiation. Putin has already lost huge face in this conflict and knows the boundaries.

But Ukraine cannot be de-militarised. This is why, for the sake of lives and peace, the USA & Russia need to sign an agreement. And, as unpalatable as it may sound, China may have a role. In my totally uneducated and ill-informed view (pretty much the same as most others) this is the way I see forward.

Russia will be paying for the actions on the international stage for many years. But, as irritating as it sounds, Putin will have to be given a way out.

There is a slightly confident part of me that feels this won't go on for that much longer. Or maybe I'm just trusting humanity to do the right thing.

Yeah, but you can’t demilitarise all the countries between east and west and call them buffer zones. It would just leave them open to Russia jumping in whenever they want and using them as a war zone whenever they feel like causing chaos.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Vladimir Putin sets out his key demands to halt Russian invasion of Ukraine
Moscow calls for independence in rebel regions and ban on Kyiv joining Nato or EU, as Kremlin military offensive remains stalled

DT headline

 

[Ooh it’s a corner]

Yep, it’s a fairly obvious threat and one I suspect the nations of Europe have prepared for. Oil and gas is the only real leverage Russia has over them (hence why it is no coincidence that many of those who are known to or suspected to shill for Moscow in the west are trying to derail the “green agenda” or “net zero” to try and keep us all suckling at Moscow’s teat), the problem Putin and his cronies have is it’s obviously coming into spring when demand will naturally drop. This threat in October / November may well have carried more dread in the capitals of Europe than it does in March.

Although I THINK much of Western Europe(not UK) use the summer months to stock up for the winter period(much colder than UK remember). If they don’t build up that stock they may fear winter even more

 

[Eeyore]

Yeah, but you can’t demilitarise all the countries between east and west and call them buffer zones. It would just leave them open to Russia jumping in whenever they want and using them as a war zone whenever they feel like causing chaos.

He's not done it to Finland. But I'm not suggesting de-militarisation anyway. I'm just suggesting NATO reign its horns in.

If you have an hour to spare, here is a good lecture from 2015. John Mearsheimer gives a huge amount of background to the situation as it was at the time.

Interestingly, he wrongly says Russia would never invade Ukraine because it would be another Afghanistan. He may have got the second part right. But stuff like this is important than following the incumbent narratives.

For those who wish to discredit John Mearsheimer rather than watching-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

 

[A1X]

[tweet]1500951390251888641[/tweet]

 

[Razzoo]

I'm glad our field of expertise has moved on from EU politics, pandemics, orthopaedics and global finance to nuclear military strategy.

NSC roolz.

That it happened almost overnight is the real impressive aspect.

 

[A1X]

Although I THINK much of Western Europe(not UK) use the summer months to stock up for the winter period(much colder than UK remember). If they don’t build up that stock they may fear winter even more

True, although it does give them time to find alternative sources from elsewhere (no idea where, not my area of expertise).

 

[Triggaaar]

Russia will not accept Ukraine as a member of NATO.

It's not up to them, and never should be. Just like we don't accept that Russia is run by a dictator, but it's not up to us.

Let's take characters out of it for a moment. Forget Putin exists and just call his side 'Russia' without him in the equation.

If I was Russia I would not be happy about having a huge Western supported nation, with Western missiles on the terrain and military exercises being conducted on my lawn.

Referring to Ukraine as Russia's lawn is obviously not right. Having military exercises being conducted in a country that neighbours you is par for the course. Estonia and Latvia border Russia, and there doesn't appear to be a build up of weapons there causing a problem.

And let's actually be realistic here - whatever weapons were in a NATO Ukraine, they wouldn't suddenly be fired at Russia, because that would lead to a nuclear war, so it's just not something Russia would be worried about anyway.

I would see it as intimidation, however unlikely an invasion was. I would see it as humiliation. My Empire is no more, their proxy empire has grown.

It's up to Russia whether they feel humiliated or not. Ukraine was part of the USSR, but they're not humiliated are they? Britain once ruled the largest empire the world has ever seen, and now we're just a little island again - are we supposed to feel humiliated? Because I don't.

What if Canada formed an alliance with China and Chinese forces were running around up there as well as missiles, how do you think the USA would take that ? (Honestly, give me your thoughts).

It is important to distinguish between how democratic countries behave, compared to single party countries. The people of countries do not like going to war, and the people have more say (and freedom of information) in democratic countries.

You could also say 'would the people of Poland like it if Ukraine chose to join with Russia?'. No they wouldn't like it, but that would be Ukraine's choice to make, and it should be respected. Ukraine should choose whatever they want.

But Ukraine cannot be de-militarised. This is why, for the sake of lives and peace, the USA & Russia need to sign an agreement. And, as unpalatable as it may sound, China may have a role. In my totally uneducated and ill-informed view (pretty much the same as most others) this is the way I see forward.

Russia will be paying for the actions on the international stage for many years. But, as irritating as it sounds, Putin will have to be given a way out.

USA and Russia sign an agreement? It's not up to the USA to decide. And it's not up to China either. And no, Putin does not have to be given a way out. If he is, he might as well invade Moldova next, because, you know, he'll have to be given a way out.

 

[birthofanorange]

That it happened almost overnight is the real impressive aspect.

I'm hoping that's a tongue in cheek comment, rather than a genuinely sarcastic one.

Look, we're pretty much all in the boat, offering up our take/opinions on what is (and what should) be happening. Some are far more knowledgeable than others, but we all have a voice in this.

No one is claiming expertise.

 

[Razzoo]

He's not done it to Finland. But I'm not suggesting de-militarisation anyway. I'm just suggesting NATO reign its horns in.

If you have an hour to spare, here is a good lecture from 2015. John Mearsheimer gives a huge amount of background to the situation as it was at the time.

Interestingly, he wrongly says Russia would never invade Ukraine because it would be another Afghanistan. He may have got the second part right. But stuff like this is important than following the incumbent narratives.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

I posted that earlier in this thread, of course, the professor is being cancelled as we speak as a Putin loving traitor. He speaks with authority and knowledge. Remarkably ahead of the curve.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yeah, but you can’t demilitarise all the countries between east and west and call them buffer zones. It would just leave them open to Russia jumping in whenever they want and using them as a war zone whenever they feel like causing chaos.

He's not done it to Finland.

Finland aren't demilitarised, so what's that got to do with it?

 

[Razzoo]

I'm hoping that's a tongue in cheek comment, rather than a genuinely sarcastic one.

Look, we're pretty much all in the boat, offering up our take/opinions on what is (and what should) be happening. Some are far more knowledgeable than others, but we all have a voice in this.

No one is claiming expertise.

I include myself in that. It's huge, of course we are all reading and watching videos to try to make sense of this madness.

 

[Eeyore]

Finland aren't demilitarised, so what's that got to do with it?

It's relevant, because I'm not suggesting that Ukraine is de-militarised.

 

[sydney]

Russian police now using cattle prods on protesters.