[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

I've listened to that piece now. Very interesting, and provided a different perspective than a lot of the mainstream media (unsurprisingly).
Key takeaways for me (IMO):
- all is not lost in the transatlantic relationship
- the US still supports NATO, and Europe remains a key trading partner
- the US wants to 'sort' Europe so it can pivot and focus on China and the Pacific.
- the idea in the 'deal' of having US companies and contractors in Ukraine (for exploration, extraction, reconstruction) may well work as a deterrent to Russia and, also MAY be the security backstop that Ukraine/Europe is seeking. The US is more likely to respond if it's economic interests (in Ukraine) are at risk, than just because of something on a piece of paper. Also, the exploration, extraction, reconstruction deal is clearly multi year (or decade)
- Zelenskiy needs to be better advised as to how to play the game with Trump.

It was good, and this thread needs these different perspectives (IMO). Big thanks for posting

The trouble with that argument about US being in Ukraine is a security guarantee, is its already been proven nonsense.

US companies and contractors were already in East Ukraine, but Putin still invaded.

Its totally naive to think the ambitions of Russian imperial fascism (which is a mindset of delusion, fantasy and deceit) are going to be changed or somehow stopped because a few Amercians are again on Ukrainian soil.

They won't care, and they won't believe Trump will nuke them for reinvading a 3rd country, so the prize is always going to be worth more than a diplomatic spat or temporary sanctioning.

It just won't work.

 

[A1X]

 

[sparkie]

Good stuff.

Starmer needs to bite the bullet and declare a 1p+ rise in income tax ( which could not have been forseen as necessary in his manifesto) to fund significant emergency raising of the UK defence budget.

 

[A1X]

Good stuff.

Starmer needs to bite the bullet and declare a 1p+ rise in income tax ( which could not have been forseen as necessary in his manifesto) to fund significant emergency raising of the UK defence budget.

Call it the “Trump tax”

 

[peterward]

 

[sparkie]

 

[Igzilla]

I've listened to that piece now. Very interesting, and provided a different perspective than a lot of the mainstream media (unsurprisingly).
Key takeaways for me (IMO):
- all is not lost in the transatlantic relationship
- the US still supports NATO, and Europe remains a key trading partner
- the US wants to 'sort' Europe so it can pivot and focus on China and the Pacific.
- the idea in the 'deal' of having US companies and contractors in Ukraine (for exploration, extraction, reconstruction) may well work as a deterrent to Russia and, also MAY be the security backstop that Ukraine/Europe is seeking. The US is more likely to respond if it's economic interests (in Ukraine) are at risk, than just because of something on a piece of paper. Also, the exploration, extraction, reconstruction deal is clearly multi year (or decade)
- Zelenskiy needs to be better advised as to how to play the game with Trump.

It was good, and this thread needs these different perspectives (IMO). Big thanks for posting

I think my other main takeout from this regarding Trump are the two questions one should ask every time Trump opens his mouth: "How does this increase Trump's media presence?" and "How does this link to China?"

 

[SweatyMexican]

Whatever you think of his domestic policy, it’s relieving to have a bloody decent diplomat in number 10, and I’m sure any conservative PM worth their salt would’ve done the same but:

Starmer went over to the US to negotiate with Trump, invited him for a state visit to butter him up further.

Seen the shi*tshow of the Ukraine visit to the White House and invited Zelenskyy straight over to re-assure him.

In comms with Macron and the EU for a collective front.

This is actually putting us on the world stage again. We actually look like we know what we’re doing for once.

We should ignore those wanting to cancel Trump’s visit. That’s emotive thinking. Yes he’s dangerous and in league with the Russians but we’re stuck with him for at least 4 years and need to soft power him as much as possible.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Speculating:

I wonder if Starmer and Macron want to ensure Zelenskyy isn’t forced to meet with Trump again without European leaders also in the room. That’s what’s behind this morning’s statement and a key goal of today’s summit.

This from Starmer’s meeting with the Baltic leaders this morning:

US and Ukraine should return to the negotiation table, together with Europeans.

Also maybe instructive that he wanted a 1:1 meeting with Meloni. She’s well respected by Trump, and has been good on Ukraine. Much as I dislike what she seems to represent, she would be a good person to have sat with Zelenskyy.

It would be a good strategy. Trump losing his shit so publicly showed them he has no plan B* other than extorting Ukraine. It’s an opportunity to sideline his “deal” and put him in a position where he would be shown up as the one who isn’t ready for peace if he rejects Europe’s plan.

* He barely has a plan A, let’s be honest.

 

[Eric the meek]

Blimey. This is all very encouraging.

First we have a joint Anglo-French Ukrainian alt. peace deal, then Macron announces the EU are considering the creation of a new defence architecture, Germany announces the creation of a 700 milllion Euro defence fund, and then Norway finds $1.7 trillion dollars down the back of the sofa. This is FAR more than the US has provided (obviously I mean real world numbers, not Trump numbers).

With its current experience at the coalface, I can see Ukraine playing a big part in all this*.

I would imagine that none of all this international diplomacy, unity, backing for Ukraine, speed of decision making and money were on the radar of the Kremlin.

*Let's keep up with the bavovnas though. There 's no harm in continuing to degrade the enemy until it walks off the battlefield.

Edit: 700 billion.

 

[peterward]

Blimey. This is all very encouraging.

First we have a joint Anglo-French Ukrainian alt. peace deal, then Macron announces the EU are considering the creation of a new defence architecture, Germany announces the creation of a 700 milllion Euro defence fund, and then Norway finds $1.7 trillion dollars down the back of the sofa. This is FAR more than the US has provided (obviously I mean real world numbers, not Trump numbers).

With its current experience at the coalface, I can see Ukraine playing a big part in all this*.

I would imagine that none of all this international diplomacy, unity, backing for Ukraine, speed of decision making and money were on the radar of the Kremlin.

*Let's keep up with the bavovnas though. There 's no harm in continuing to degrade the enemy until it walks off the battlefield.

700 billion not million, but whats 3 zeros between friends !

 

[Eric the meek]

700 billion not million, but whats 3 zeros between friends !

I was just testing you. Glad to see you were awake. Back to the football....

 

[A1X]

Feels like a few in Europe needed to be shown that they can’t rely on the US anymore, Friday doing that has this triggered a chain of events into motion

 

[raymondo]

The trouble with that argument about US being in Ukraine is a security guarantee, is its already been proven nonsense.

US companies and contractors were already in East Ukraine, but Putin still invaded.

Its totally naive to think the ambitions of Russian imperial fascism (which is a mindset of delusion, fantasy and deceit) are going to be changed or somehow stopped because a few Amercians are again on Ukrainian soil.

They won't care, and they won't believe Trump will nuke them for reinvading a 3rd country, so the prize is always going to be worth more than a diplomatic spat or temporary sanctioning.

It just won't work.

Ok, thanks, I had zero idea that US companies were already in East Ukraine at that time.
,(every day a school day )

 

[raymondo]

I think my other main takeout from this regarding Trump are the two questions one should ask every time Trump opens his mouth: "How does this increase Trump's media presence?" and "How does this link to China?"

And, "why do you hide behind your suit "
And, "why does Elon Musk hide behind his baseball cap and 4 year old son".

 

[Eric the meek]

The first indication of the scale of the own goal by DOGE inflicted on US national security.

 

[raymondo]

Good stuff.

Starmer needs to bite the bullet and declare a 1p+ rise in income tax ( which could not have been forseen as necessary in his manifesto) to fund significant emergency raising of the UK defence budget.

Nice graphic on the first reply.

 

[raymondo]

Speculating:

I wonder if Starmer and Macron want to ensure Zelenskyy isn’t forced to meet with Trump again without European leaders also in the room. That’s what’s behind this morning’s statement and a key goal of today’s summit.

This from Starmer’s meeting with the Baltic leaders this morning:


Also maybe instructive that he wanted a 1:1 meeting with Meloni. She’s well respected by Trump, and has been good on Ukraine. Much as I dislike what she seems to represent, she would be a good person to have sat with Zelenskyy.

It would be a good strategy. Trump losing his shit so publicly showed them he has no plan B* other than extorting Ukraine. It’s an opportunity to sideline his “deal” and put him in a position where he would be shown up as the one who isn’t ready for peace if he rejects Europe’s plan.

* He barely has a plan A, let’s be honest.

Meloni's been onside .
I'm pleased the Baltic leaders have been involved,- if anyone in Europe requires reminders of what's at stake, they can provide it.

 

[raymondo]

Big hit on a gas storage site.

 

[SouthSaxon]