[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Here'sWally]

You should stick to the point. Otherwise you run the danger of being accused of deflection and distraction. None of your comment above is relevant.

I simply pointed out that [MENTION=18487]Seagull27[/MENTION]'s post was wrong in comparing Russian military deaths with a figure of 200 Ukrainian deaths, as the 200 referred to civilian deaths only. You had already pounced on it in some Eureka moment. Now you are talking about other data, and veering off on a hopeless tangent about casualties in other wars. You need to be more objective.

You are right in what you said, I didn't and I don't dispute it.

But you also said I should take note of what you said. I was always responding to and talking about the 4,300 figure which was part of his post.

No need to jump on me, we are clearly talking at cross purposes.

 

[raymondo]

Just heard on radio 5 that removing Russia from Swift is not such a big deal (according to a Finance systems expert) as Swift is only the telecom's part. He says the only way to stop the transfers is to follow the money and freeze the accounts at each end. ��WTF??

 

[Eric the meek]

You are right in what you said, I didn't and I don't dispute it.

But you also said I should take note of what you said. I was always responding to and talking about the 4,300 figure which was part of his post.

No need to jump on me, we are clearly talking at cross purposes.

OK. Sorry if I came across as jumping on you. One of my bugbears is people who argue something, and then when corrected, they change the subject.
I'm like a dog with a bone sometimes. But that's not your problem - it's mine.

For the record, I have absolutely no idea if any of the data provided by the Ukrainians is right or wrong. Neither, I would suggest, do you, or anyone else on this forum.

 

[vegster]

I think we should always be sceptical about either side declaring such figures about either their or their opponents forces. Both sides have an agenda, and while I am infinitely more minded to trust the Ukrainians than the Russians we should always view things through that prism.

Obviously any casualty figures are grim, everyone is some mothers son or daughter who has died needlessly be they Russian or Ukrainian. I think the way to judge and try to ascertain what is going on should be to note the fact that this fight is not over yet.

Putin wanted to quickly destroy control and command centres, radar stations and eliminate the Ukrainian Air Force to gain air superiority and then cut off Kyiv and implant its own man. This has not gone to plan and there is fierce resistance, as I type it seems an attack on Kharkiv has been repelled and the city remains in Ukrainian control. The Russians are getting bogged down, resistance genuinely seems to be strengthening with lines of volunteers signing on to defend their homeland. Every day they hold out is a victory, every day they hold out yet another screw is turned on Russian sanctions. Tomorrow the Russian economy might well start to crumble... will the Russian troops get their pay checks ? They are already struggling with logistics issues and their morale must be wavering.... they could fall apart.

 

[Eric the meek]

Just heard on radio 5 that removing Russia from Swift is not such a big deal (according to a Finance systems expert) as Swift is only the telecom's part. He says the only way to stop the transfers is to follow the money and freeze the accounts at each end. ��WTF??

Take a look at this from Simon Jack. It might help.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60543995

 

[Creaky]

Indeed Belarus are complicit in the invasion for allowing it to be launched from their soil. They should be sanctioned in the same manner as Russia.

This - anyone heard a reason why Belarus hasn’t been targeted with sanctions?

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

It has been for a long time, alas. And this where, prior to this Russian invasion in which only they are too blame for the current situation, we were at.

A good read from 2014, when the original coup happened, gives a good starting point for wanting to DYOR more..

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/russia-ukraine-war-kiev-conflict

The problem, in the current climate, is the herd mentality that the media are forcing upon us. Only this weekend the FT was calling those of us who have serious miss-givings about what underlines NATO as 'Pro-Putin' in its headline. Pro-Putin is something I am not. But any reasonable discussion would never question that and there would be no need to defend myself. But that is what all this comes to alas, Goodies v Baddies. A point Swanny makes correctly. Then again, such a view would make me pro-Swanny... you see where I am going with this.

Not necessarily and I don’t buy the idea that it is the media driving opinion. Most of us are condemning Russia for invading a sovereign country and murdering innocent people. Ukraine has not done this and it can be argued has been appeasing Russia (in the West’s interests) for too long. It is very easy to choose a side when one threatens the other. IMO you are also not giving enough weight to the history of the region. This is not the first time Ukraine has had cause to evict Russia from its territory. Given that context it is not difficult to understand the reasons that Ukrainians do not wish to be a buffer country. As to your comments about NATO it is pretty clear that it is a multilateral mutual defence organization. All members are willing participants. Anti NATO sentiment is a hangover from Putin like 1980s Cold War thinking. That doesn’t mean I think you support Putin but that you share his fears about NATO. Reasonable discussion is entirely possible on that basis and that is what we are having.

 

[Swansman]

The mistake he and you are making, is to assume that everyone else is swayed by the media. Many of us posting are savvy enough to do our own research, and I usually take the trouble to post a link to a person or article which shows what I have said. I am very careful to check links and verify them before posting. I am also happy to be corrected.
I speak from experience about NATO.
When NATO goes into a conflict as NATO, all troops wear sky blue berets. Do not confuse actions by individual NATO countries as being NATO conflicts. NATO wasn't involved with the Falklands conflict, for instance. That was only Britain/

Neither side are perfect but don't assume those who post their opinions are not as clever as you or those who are against this. It's so easy to point the finger and say you're wrong without reason to back it up. Swanny has even used wikipedia which is notoriously inaccurate. and edited by all and sundry.

"Everyone" is not the case, no. But media has a very big impact in general and on a lot of people.

And yeah I know you dont like the phrase "in general" as "generalisations are odious", as you put it. But to me generalisation is a practical tool. It means I can shake someones hand knowing that generally speaking they wont rip my arm off. It means I can open my door, knowing that generally speaking there wont be a bunch of tigers out there attacking me. It means I know that I generally shouldnt take a shite in someones nostril as generally they wouldnt like it. And in this case, I know that media generally affects people. It is very diffficult to live on this planet .

Yes, you speak from experience about NATO. Your individual experience with your own individual narrative. To you, NATO is a very different thing from NATO nations going to war together leaving the NATO flag at home and you seem to be genuinely surprised that others might not share that perspective. Similar to how you - repeatedly referring to having the Asian flu in the late 60s and surviving the smallpox outbreak in Brighton 1952 - used your experience to conclude that Covid would not turn into a pandemic and was a blown out of proportion by the media. Just like in that case, I disagree with you on this one: it is entirely reasonable for some countries to percieve NATO as a threat.

As for me using Wikipedia... yeah that is correct. I do it almost on a daily basis. It is correct that it can be edited by anyone, making it a wee bit different from eg a tabloid, which can only be edited by a ****.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

"Everyone" is not the case, no. But media has a very big impact in general and on a lot of people.

And yeah I know you dont like the phrase "in general" as "generalisations are odious", as you put it. But to me generalisation is a practical tool. It means I can shake someones hand knowing that generally speaking they wont rip my arm off. It means I can open my door, knowing that generally speaking there wont be a bunch of tigers out there attacking me. It means I know that I generally shouldnt take a shite in someones nostril as generally they wouldnt like it. And in this case, I know that media generally affects people. It is very diffficult to live on this planet .

Yes, you speak from experience about NATO. Your individual experience with your own individual narrative. To you, NATO is a very different thing from NATO nations going to war together leaving the NATO flag at home and you seem to be genuinely surprised that others might not share that perspective. Similar to how you - repeatedly referring to having the Asian flu in the late 60s and surviving the smallpox outbreak in Brighton 1952 - used your experience to conclude that Covid would not turn into a pandemic and was a blown out of proportion by the media. Just like in that case, I disagree with you on this one: it is entirely reasonable for some countries to percieve NATO as a threat.

As for me using Wikipedia... yeah that is correct. I do it almost on a daily basis. It is correct that it can be edited by anyone, making it a wee bit different from eg a tabloid, which can only be edited by a ****.

How very disingenouous of you when I posted that way back in March/April in 2020 when very few of us had any experience of Covid19 and its varients.


Back on topic.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Swanny does sometimes have support from me, other times quite the opposite. Sometimes you do, other times quite the opposite. Sometimes Swanny does say the strangest tings, but other times, as in this thread, there will be occasions when he hits the nail on the head. It's all a matter of opinion. There are NSC members who irritate me much, but I am conscious that maybe I irritate them too. I have never been 'infracted' or banned. I suspect I never will be.

As regards posting false information, unwittingly we all do it, it is a question of what is deliberate in its miss-leading.

An example is this quote: '...the media (or rather the military–industrial–media comple) decides what people are or are not interested in'

Better folk than I have often remarked the same thing. And this feeds into his 'Goodies v Baddies' mantra. He is right to do this. As clear as it is that a sovereign country has been invaded, and you and I would both agree that Russia must stop, I am not viewing like some World Cup campaign as others are, fed by the barrage of jingoistic support for our new team from quarters of the press.

Russia has no right to start a war in Ukraine. Russia should leave immediately. But this does not mean that the original concerns should not have been addressed:

Yanis Varoufakis, for me one of the most balanced commentators in Europe who considers all side (read- Adults in the Room- his take on the EU during the Greek crisis when he was Finance Minister there) says:

[Tweet]1496952362048671745[/Tweet]

I could go on. But, yes, for certain Russia has done a really awful thing here. And I support the Ukranian effort to remove them. But on the whole NATO thing I do find myself questioning the motives of many in the West that can easily be wrapped up in a kind of righteousness that covers a multitude of underlying intent. And that is why, beyond the obvious support for the Ukrainians people's right to defend their own country, questions should be asked.

And I will not be swept along by the media, NSC, RT, the BBC (who I deeply respect unlike many), who may wish to push a narrative.

Varafoukis, far less the adult in the room. If we're being generous we could describe him as a useful idiot to Putin. For the reason, as has been pointed out, that Washington and Moscow can't just have a meeting and carve up Russia? What? Have we gone back in time 150 years?

An adult in the room, would unequivocally say that they value the rule of international laws and the importance of self determination of people to decide their own future.

Warmongering he says? That's the last time I listen to him

 

[A1X]

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[A1X]

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[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Utterly shameful for the showboating West to abandon the brave Ukrainian people to their fate, just bunging them a few weapons to try and assuage their shameful abandonment of Ukraine

 

[dazzer6666]

Just heard on radio 5 that removing Russia from Swift is not such a big deal (according to a Finance systems expert) as Swift is only the telecom's part. He says the only way to stop the transfers is to follow the money and freeze the accounts at each end. ��WTF??

That was the (publicity-seeking mouthpiece) Justin Urquart-Stewart….he wasn’t entirely correct in what he was saying (and even got the acronym wrong FWIW). He was correct in that there are alternatives, but Russian banks will find it extremely difficult to operate normally if they can’t use SWIFT - the way he was prattling on implied it wouldn’t affect them. The counterparties they trade with will be far less willing to use alternatives, it’s likely to be much slower, much more expensive and less secure (even if they find counterparties willing to trade). US sanctions globally in relation to their ability to trade in US dollars would possibly be the toughest action.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Utterly shameful for the showboating West to abandon the brave Ukrainian people to their fate, just bunging them a few weapons to try and assuage their shameful abandonment of Ukraine

The alternative is nuclear war, surely?

Putin would absolutely ‘press the button’ without a moments hesitation. NATO & the West are set-up around defence, not attack. Think Miyagi-Do.

 

[dazzer6666]

This - anyone heard a reason why Belarus hasn’t been targeted with sanctions?

They have

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0607

 

[raymondo]

That was the (publicity-seeking mouthpiece) Justin Urquart-Stewart….he wasn’t entirely correct in what he was saying (and even got the acronym wrong FWIW). He was correct in that there are alternatives, but Russian banks will find it extremely difficult to operate normally if they can’t use SWIFT - the way he was prattling on implied it wouldn’t affect them. The counterparties they trade with will be far less willing to use alternatives, it’s likely to be much slower, much more expensive and less secure (even if they find counterparties willing to trade). US sanctions globally in relation to their ability to trade in US dollars would possibly be the toughest action.

Thank you, Dazzer, very helpful and much appreciated

 

[A1X]

Utterly shameful for the showboating West to abandon the brave Ukrainian people to their fate, just bunging them a few weapons to try and assuage their shameful abandonment of Ukraine

I’d rather that than a nuclear warhead blowing up in my face. It’s awful but the alternative is much, much worse.

 

[jakarta]

I’d rather that than a nuclear warhead blowing up in my face. It’s awful but the alternative is much, much worse.

I'm not EXACTLY sure how a Nuclear War would help Putin/Russia, assuming he is not a complete nutjob?

 

[amexer]

Utterly shameful for the showboating West to abandon the brave Ukrainian people to their fate, just bunging them a few weapons to try and assuage their shameful abandonment of Ukraine

What do you think West should do ?