[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[portlock seagull]

i've noticed that our intel has been rather impressive throughout this war.

On a recent video, Chuck Pfarrar noted that British intelligence said that 95% of all Russian forces were in Ukraine. Even with that high percentage (plus a few thousand North Koreans), they still have only taken 20% of Ukrainian territory, and still cannot take back Kursk, after six months.

There's no complacency here, but equally, let's not over estimate the enemy.

Battles can be won in a single day, wars rarely. Russia can afford to play the long game in every sense and has done. Experts feared this from the beginning, not least because the West has no stomach for lengthy engagements - as Trump is now demonstrating.

 

[Eric the meek]

Holy Putin puppets. I didn't see this coming.

If true, this is potentially far reaching...

 

[SouthSaxon]

The survey indicates only 11% of that cohort are willing to fight for the U.K. That is a catastrophic position for a country that is seeking to be a major military player on the global stage.

This is easily solved by commissioning a second survey which shows the opposite result.

 

[Triggaaar]

On a recent video, Chuck Pfarrar

 

[raymondo]

You'd hope so, but I really believe a majority of our population today wouldn't realise or care sufficiently until too late. The UK is only a couple of days drive across the continent by Panzer after all But as previously mentioned, obtaining a common sense of unity and willingness to accept seismic change to put us on a war footing is where I have my doubts. Because of course, time is never in abundance when the games up and armies take time to build, arm and train etc. Especially with little to no manufacturing or resources at hand.

Yes, it would be a close thing.
Hopefully the current rhetoric across most of Europe turns into real action to rebuild defence capability.

 

[Triggaaar]

Russia can afford to play the long game in every sense

I disagree.

the West has no stomach for lengthy engagements - as Trump is now demonstrating.

Trump is an idiot. The rest of the West show no signs of giving up.

 

[Eric the meek]

Battles can be won in a single day, wars rarely. Russia can afford to play the long game in every sense and has done. Experts feared this from the beginning, not least because the West has no stomach for lengthy engagements - as Trump is now demonstrating.

You're dead right. Russia certainly can't win a war in a single day, or even three days.

Here we are, three years later, and Russia has lost its reputation, war chest, friends, trading partners, an economy, oil and gas customers, its arms trade, influence, and quite possibly, its future.

It was going so well. The hybrid war against the west was under the radar. And then, Putin made the most fundamental miscalculation. The invasion of Ukraine showcased to the world, the brutality, oppression, corruption, dishonesty and immorality of Russia.

 

[raymondo]

i've noticed that our intel has been rather impressive throughout this war.

On a recent video, Chuck Pfarrar noted that British intelligence said that 95% of all Russian forces were in Ukraine. Even with that high percentage (plus a few thousand North Koreans), they still have only taken 20% of Ukrainian territory, and still cannot take back Kursk, after six months.

There's no complacency here, but equally, let's not over estimate the enemy.

I'm shocked China hasn't invaded Russia already!

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm shocked China hasn't invaded Russia already!

Technically it has - in that river island place in the far east, covered by Paul Warburg. It's just that Russia decided not to put up a fight.

The moral? Russia chooses its battles. And not always wisely!

 

[portlock seagull]

I disagree.





Trump is an idiot. The rest of the West show no signs of giving up.

Better phrased, I think Russia can better afford the longer game. The rest of the West, without America, doesn’t amount to much IMO. Our capacity to maintain a corp of 20-30k just isn’t there for example. And it’s a terribly small number to begin with.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

With Trump and his fellow Putin fanboys controlling America, it's beginning to feel a bit like having Russia to the east and the west of Europe.

 

[Eric the meek]

Better phrased, I think Russia can better afford the longer game. The rest of the West, without America, doesn’t amount to much IMO. Our capacity to maintain a corp of 20-30k just isn’t there for example. And it’s a terribly small number to begin with.

The Russian timescale is unencumbered by pesky elections, so authoritarian Putin (v1.0 or v2.0) can plan a generation ahead. So the whole Russian military machine can accommodate a siege (on someone else's land of course, not its own). Russia is good at attacking but not so great at defending.

If you think the Russian rump economy, which began with a GDP the size of Italy, can better afford a longer game, then you haven't been paying attention. European GDP far outstrips that of Russia.

 

[Triggaaar]

Better phrased, I think Russia can better afford the longer game.

I still disagree. Russia's economy is really struggling, as is their army. As long as the sanctions remain, and we arm Ukraine, Russia is a bit stuffed. IMO.

The rest of the West, without America, doesn’t amount to much IMO. Our capacity to maintain a corp of 20-30k just isn’t there for example. And it’s a terribly small number to begin with.

I definitely want the West to increase military spending, but Russia are failing against Ukraine, so if things carry on as they are, Russia will fail without European troops being involved.

 

[Triggaaar]

European GDP far outstrips that of Russia.

That's an understatement. The UK's GDP outstrips Russia's, as does Germany's, France's and Italy's.

The GDP of the EU + UK is about 11 times that of Russia.

 

[Eric the meek]

That's an understatement. The UK's GDP outstrips Russia's, as does Germany's, France's and Italy's.

The GDP of the EU + UK is about 11 times that of Russia.

Yes, you're right. I didn't want to over-egg it. People in western Europe are used to certain standards, like food, roads, public transport, pensions, free elections, inside toilets, etc.

So while we can afford a military larger than Russia's, there are other demands on our wealth.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes, you're right. I didn't want to over-egg it. People in western Europe are used to certain standards, like food, roads, public transport, pensions, free elections, inside toilets, etc.

So while we can afford a military larger than Russia's, there are other demands on our wealth.

True. But there's also less corruption, so the money we spend on our military actually goes to our military, and the equipment our military uses actually works.

 

[portlock seagull]

So we’re all agreed Ukraine is winning, Russia can’t ultimately…so what on earth is Donald doing?!

 

[Eric the meek]

So we’re all agreed Ukraine is winning, Russia can’t ultimately…so what on earth is Donald doing?!

That's the $500 billion question.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Here's my proposal for a sustainable peace deal:

Russia withdraws all it's forces from Ukrainian territory and promises not to invade again.
In return, Ukraine gives back Kursk and promises not to invade Russia again. They will also stop setting fire to Russian oil refineries.
Ukraine joins NATO for security guarantees.
Russia doesn't need security guarantees because it has nukes.
Sanctions are lifted on Russian economy only if they pay reparations. If not, Europe simply appropriates the Russian funds that are currently frozen and gives them to Ukraine for rebuilding their country.

Any thoughts?

That would be a great solution provided we recognise that Russia will break any promise not to invade again, which means preparing for that day by bolstering defence spending across Europe.

 

[portlock seagull]

That's the $500 billion question.

I wonder if he really would pull supply of arms if Ukraine refuses to submit to whatever deal he brokers? Or whether Europe will significantly increase supply if US stops?