Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[highflyer]

What early signs?

See above and below The slowdown is showing on the Zoe app, which uses (several million) people self reporting symptoms, alongside selective testing, to provide a predictive number for new symptomatic cases each day. It's generally been accurate on the trends (rather than numbers), and mainly closely aligned with other data sources, but a few days ahead.

However, as also noted, the levelling out over the last few days may be down to people reporting symptoms caused by vaccination rather than by Covid itself. I'm surprised, as they do ask you to report if you have been vaccinated, so if this has happened it should have been very easy to spot and rectify.

 

[Mellotron]

Thanks, that's good to know, as I wasn't aware of that and it makes sense. Hopefully that's the cause, as it did seem surprising. As mentioned above, I was expecting some slow down in the decline, but not as much as seems to be showing, and the Zoe app has been very reliable up to now, as an early sign of trends so I don't think it can be ignored. Hopefully they will get that sorted out and we can move this discusson back onto the good news thread!

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[LamieRobertson]

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I’ve been following this like you....Peston has now decided to comment on the very small rise without mentioning the possible skewing of figures...indeed he never cared to comment when the cases were falling dramatically ..the w*****

 

[crodonilson]

Big poll in the I tomorrow shows the majority of the public are very much in favour of the current lockdown. Most believe that schools should begin to reopen from 8th March but non essential shops should not open until April at the earliest and it should be are not convinced that hospitality should not reopen until May at the earliest, hopefully food for thought for Boris when dealing with a few dozen back bench idiots who seem to think we should be back to normal by mid May.

 

[dazzer6666]

Big poll in the I tomorrow shows the majority of the public are very much in favour of the current lockdown. Most believe that schools should begin to reopen from 8th March but non essential shops should not open until April at the earliest and it should be are not convinced that hospitality should not reopen until May at the earliest, hopefully food for thought for Boris when dealing with a few dozen back bench idiots who seem to think we should be back to normal by mid May.

Poll is utterly irrelevant. It’s the data that will determine what happens and new data is coming every day. No-one should be making any decisions about April/May now, and I don’t think Boris will either.

 

[crodonilson]

Poll is utterly irrelevant. It’s the data that will determine what happens and new data is coming every day. No-one should be making any decisions about April/May now, and I don’t think Boris will either.

I agree it should be wholly in data but it is encouraging it seems the majority of of the country is behind a continuation of lockdown whixh should persuade BJ to wholly trust the advice of SAGE on the best way forward.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Big poll in the I tomorrow shows the majority of the public are very much in favour of the current lockdown. Most believe that schools should begin to reopen from 8th March but non essential shops should not open until April at the earliest and it should be are not convinced that hospitality should not reopen until May at the earliest, hopefully food for thought for Boris when dealing with a few dozen back bench idiots who seem to think we should be back to normal by mid May.

May what year? I was thinking of going out for a walk if we get a nice day in June. Will it be safe?

The thing is, people who get the vaccine AND stay indoors for the next few months are safe from the virus anyway. So why don't they just stay indoors as per now and let the rest of us carry on? If 54% want to stay inside, let them - it doesn't bother me at all. But if 54% are going to stay inside anyway but they want to ensure the 46% are as miserable as they are - isn't that a bit unfair?

 

[dsr-burnley]

I agree it should be wholly in data but it is encouraging it seems the majority of of the country is behind a continuation of lockdown whixh should persuade BJ to wholly trust the advice of SAGE on the best way forward.

At risk of being contradictory, you have never wholly trusted SAGE or been in favour of following SAGE advice. You have always wanted lockdown to be stricter and longer and harder than SAGE ever has.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I agree it should be wholly in data but it is encouraging it seems the majority of of the country is behind a continuation of lockdown whixh should persuade BJ to wholly trust the advice of SAGE on the best way forward.

Which Poll?

A telegraph poll said they want restrictions lifted faster?

I imagine in the planning for lifting they will have taken into consideration that a number of people won’t want to leave the house for a while.

 

[sparkie]

I agree it should be wholly in data but it is encouraging it seems the majority of of the country is behind a continuation of lockdown whixh should persuade BJ to wholly trust the advice of SAGE on the best way forward.

Which Poll?

A telegraph poll said they want restrictions lifted faster?

I imagine in the planning for lifting they will have taken into consideration that a number of people won’t want to leave the house for a while.

I hope no one who has been vaccinated can vote in these polls otherwise it is all a bit "I'm alright, Jack, sod you".

 

[dazzer6666]

I hope no one who has been vaccinated can vote in these polls otherwise it is all a bit "I'm alright, Jack, sod you".

Precisely why any poll is irrelevant...........doesn’t really matter what people want, as we’ll get a controlled easing until pretty much everyone is vaccinated......obviously there will be the anti-vaxers and others that still won’t have been jabbed, but they’ll be taking their own risks with Covid at that point.

 

[dazzer6666]

I agree it should be wholly in data but it is encouraging it seems the majority of of the country is behind a continuation of lockdown whixh should persuade BJ to wholly trust the advice of SAGE on the best way forward.

The poll was only of 2500 people, and 50% of them indicated they wanted some aspects (pubs etc) not to be open until May. Not really the ‘majority of the country’.

Think the ‘majority’ accept a gradual easing of restrictions, subject to the data supporting it, is the sensible answer. IMO there is no need to put precise dates on it - should be done when we’re ready.

 

[LamieRobertson]

The poll was only of 2500 people, and 50% of them indicated they wanted some aspects (pubs etc) not to be open until May. Not really the ‘majority of the country’.

Think the ‘majority’ accept a gradual easing of restrictions, subject to the data supporting it, is the sensible answer. IMO there is no need to put precise dates on it - should be done when we’re ready.

..and trusting SAGE lol...mainly made up of peeps specialising in behaviour ..Ferguson etc...hmmm

“Done when we’re ready” ...problem with that is peoples interpretation ..to some that will be no cases ..I think this muted 1000 is far fetched particularly when they plan on sending out a few hundred thousand test kits

 

[Rugrat]

Think the ‘majority’ accept a gradual easing of restrictions, subject to the data supporting it, is the sensible answer. IMO there is no need to put precise dates on it - should be done when we’re ready.

If, as BJ keeps hammering on about, it's data driven then there's no reason why he can't put timelines on with the underlying data assumptions attached.

So, if cases/hospitalisations (or whatever other metric he's using to drive his decisions) are at 'x' level by 'x' date then 'y' will happen.

Unfortunately I suspect it won't happen as I still think a lot of it is determined on the hoof regardless of the patronising rubbish he spouts

 

[dazzer6666]

..and trusting SAGE lol...mainly made up of peeps specialising in behaviour ..Ferguson etc...hmmm

“Done when we’re ready” ...problem with that is peoples interpretation ..to some that will be no cases ..I think this muted 1000 is far fetched particularly when they plan on sending out a few hundred thousand test kits

If, as BJ keeps hammering on about, it's data driven then there's no reason why he can't put timelines on with the underlying data assumptions attached.

So, if cases/hospitalisations (or whatever other metric he's using to drive his decisions) are at 'x' level by 'x' date then 'y' will happen.

Unfortunately I suspect it won't happen as I still think a lot of it is determined on the hoof regardless of the patronising rubbish he spouts

Kind of agree with both but I suspect what we'll get on Monday is a vague 'plan', starting with the schools and a few other carrots lobbed our way for good behaviour and then a series of steps that will depend on data targets that won't be disclosed..........'and when infections fall below an acceptable level we'll open hospitality......regular review......led by the data....blah blah blah........' etc. BJ won't be able to win whatever he does as there will be a lot of noise from both sides.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

..and trusting SAGE lol...mainly made up of peeps specialising in behaviour ..Ferguson etc...hmmm

“Done when we’re ready” ...problem with that is peoples interpretation ..to some that will be no cases ..I think this muted 1000 is far fetched particularly when they plan on sending out a few hundred thousand test kits

I think they will regret the 1000 cases a day line/leak

As mentioned, I’m not even sure it’s doable then what happens when he U turns?

Does the data allow earlier release? Or is it a one way street

 

[Rugrat]

Kind of agree with both but I suspect what we'll get on Monday is a vague 'plan', starting with the schools and a few other carrots lobbed our way for good behaviour and then a series of steps that will depend on data targets that won't be disclosed..........'and when infections fall below an acceptable level we'll open hospitality......regular review......led by the data....blah blah blah........' etc. BJ won't be able to win whatever he does as there will be a lot of noise from both sides.

I don't suspect we'll get that, I'm convinced we will.

We can all pretty well get what the roadmap looks like now .... Monday will be a huge anti climax as you suggest

 

[dazzer6666]

I don't suspect we'll get that, I'm convinced we will.

We can all pretty well get what the roadmap looks like now .... Monday will be a huge anti climax as you suggest

I guess the roadmap, if published with all dependencies and targets based on those dependencies, would firstly be incredibly complicated and secondly each line would be potentially open to so much criticism and counterargument as every party with a vested interest or agenda makes a case for 'their' thing being more important/different.

But yes - a vague, anticlimax of an announcement, followed by the usual boring suspects from BBC and ITV asking Boris why he won't be more specific despite the fact he'll have just explained why he can't be, and them demanding WHEN dates will be published...............yawn.

I think there'll be a few crumbs thrown almost immediately to keep people on side though as lockdown fatigue gets worse - more outdoor mixing for example, with promises of 'more soon if the data allows us to'

 

[crodonilson]

The general gist seems to be so long as cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue to fall at similar rates to now schools will begin a gradual reopening from March 8th, teaching unions are demanding not all pupils back right away though so I suspect it will only be part time for many. Then non essential retail towards the end of April and hospitality towards the end of May. If the data shows R rising above 1 though these dates could be pushed back.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Now that they have established that people who have been vaccinated don't get seriously ill with coronavirus, and that they find it hard to pass on, and that it is very hard to pass it on outdoors anyway, do we think it would be reckless to allow vaccinated people to sit 6 feet apart and shout at each other, while drinking coffee each from their own flask? Or is that a reckless abandonment of prudence?