Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[beorhthelm]

sooner we stop using infection cases to drive policy the better. as vaccine is widely taken up which reduces or eliminates serious disease, hospitalisation or death, then its unnecessary to focus on it. leave that to the statisticans and healthcare mandarins who like to track it.

 

[dsr-burnley]

sooner we stop using infection cases to drive policy the better. as vaccine is widely taken up which reduces or eliminates serious disease, hospitalisation or death, then its unnecessary to focus on it. leave that to the statisticans and healthcare mandarins who like to track it.

Agreed. I can foresee pro-lockdown people going round the chools testing children to try and get case numbers above 1,000 a day, if they can't find enough ill people to justify lockdown any other way.

 

[A1X]

Who are these "pro-lockdown" people of which you speak?

 

[Sussexscots]

If government intends using 'cases' as the principal metric for easing the restrictions, then, increasingly, the roadmap out is going to resemble the M25 Slow and unending. I think we've only been below 1,000 for about a week last July/August.

Surely as vaccinations increase and hospital admissions fall these destructive restrictions must be lifted.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

How many tests we doing a day the moment? Half a million on average?

If there is 1 percent false positives, that’s the limit blown

The number doesn’t include all private tests done by private companies

 

[beorhthelm]

How many tests we doing a day the moment? Half a million on average?

If there is 1 percent false positives, that’s the limit blown

The number doesn’t include all private tests done by private companies

false positives are estimated at 1-4%.
(didnt read properly)

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

and false positives alone would breach that threshold.

I’ll add to that

We get tested twice a week at work, the amount of tests don’t get sent anywhere, just the positive results.

God knows how many actual tests there are per day

 

[crodonilson]

Scottish Education Minister has confirmed that part time in school learning for secondary schools will continue indefinitely when secondary schoold do return in Scotland possibly in April. As good a sign as any that social distancing is here for at least the rest of this year and possibly beyond.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Scottish Education Minister has confirmed that part time in school learning for secondary schools will continue indefinitely when secondary schoold do return in Scotland possibly in April. As good a sign as any that social distancing is here for at least the rest of this year and possibly beyond.

Laughable.

Absolutely laughable

She is prepared to throw anyone under the bus to score points

 

[dsr-burnley]

As I have said before, any form of social distancing makes a social life for many elderly pensioners more or less impossible. A lot of old people cannot have a conversation at a distance of 6 feet, especially in a busy room, because they can't hear well enough.

Which is going to be the bigger problem in future years - is it going to be people who are vaccinated getting a dose of virus but having not being ill, or is it children having a dose of virus but not being ill? Which form of good health will be the driver behind more lockdown?

 

[Yoda]

I know there are daily fluctuations - and the 7 day rolling is key, but generally each week follows a similar patter, and I was looking specifically at the Monday to Tuesday change. Last week it went down, this week up a bit. It's a sample size of 1, so normally I'd not think twice, but as I said, the trend on the Zoe app had already caught my attention, so I have probably made far too much of it in my mind!

Anyway, even if this isn't just a blip in the data (and as the numbers get smaller, the blips get more likely), I'd be far less alarmist about it than [MENTION=3385]crodonilson[/MENTION] as I agree there was always going to be a slow down in the rate of decline and I wasn't expecting the vaccination programme to have much impact on infections rates YET (they will) - the first impact being on hospitalizations, and hopefully we will see the trends there continue to decline and then accelerate, independently of infection rates. And ultimately that is what matters most.

The vaccination programme WILL get us out of this.

I believe you're just mis-reading the information from the graph. As [MENTION=27279]dazzer6666[/MENTION] has said, the key figure is how much the 7day % change is fluctuating, and it hasn't moved much between 25%-30% over the last few weeks.

As the total figure decreases, with the percentage staying the same, this will inevitably get small and appear to start to level off an a graph. If line on the graph were to continue to fall and the same angle, the percentage difference would increase week on week, day by day at this point.

 

[Springal]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...pening-of-shops-pubs-and-restaurants-12221180

Sky’s ‘leaked’ report seems very quick indeed. Mention of sporting & entertainment venues

 

[crodonilson]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...pening-of-shops-pubs-and-restaurants-12221180

Sky’s ‘leaked’ report seems very quick indeed. Mention of sporting & entertainment venues

That's far too quick, there are already very early signs the rate of decline us beginning to slow and that's in lockdown, reopening schools will very likely on their own begin to see rates climb again so there seems very little wriggle room to open anything else yet until the data supports it. Looks like a recipe for disaster, so much for following the science and being led by data and not dates.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...pening-of-shops-pubs-and-restaurants-12221180

Sky’s ‘leaked’ report seems very quick indeed. Mention of sporting & entertainment venues

So yesterday’s “leak” didn’t get a good reaction so they have leaked this

They will then do what has the better reaction

I do think the rates/data works both ways though - if they data allows open quicker.

 

[dsr-burnley]

That's far too quick, there are already very early signs the rate of decline us beginning to slow ....

What early signs?

 

[sparkie]

That's far too quick, there are already very early signs the rate of decline us beginning to slow and that's in lockdown, reopening schools will very likely on their own begin to see rates climb again so there seems very little wriggle room to open anything else yet until the data supports it. Looks like a recipe for disaster, so much for following the science and being led by data and not dates.

I really think schools should stay shut until after the Easter holidays to "help out hammering the virus".

On the other hand they are 40% open anyway now so if we are really, really lucky we may just about get away with opening them on March 8th. Risky !

 

[Mellotron]

I know there are daily fluctuations - and the 7 day rolling is key, but generally each week follows a similar patter, and I was looking specifically at the Monday to Tuesday change. Last week it went down, this week up a bit. It's a sample size of 1, so normally I'd not think twice, but as I said, the trend on the Zoe app had already caught my attention, so I have probably made far too much of it in my mind!

Anyway, even if this isn't just a blip in the data (and as the numbers get smaller, the blips get more likely), I'd be far less alarmist about it than [MENTION=3385]crodonilson[/MENTION] as I agree there was always going to be a slow down in the rate of decline and I wasn't expecting the vaccination programme to have much impact on infections rates YET (they will) - the first impact being on hospitalizations, and hopefully we will see the trends there continue to decline and then accelerate, independently of infection rates. And ultimately that is what matters most.

The vaccination programme WILL get us out of this.

Worth mentioning - Tim Spector (who runs the ZOE app) has confirmed they are looking into whether part of the reason for the recent uptick/flattening is due to the fact they ask people to log their post vaccine symptoms, yet there's nowhere on the app for this to be separated from symptoms that could mean a case of actual Covid-19.

Could well be a factor.

 

[beorhthelm]

Worth mentioning - Tim Spector (who runs the ZOE app) has confirmed they are looking into whether part of the reason for the recent uptick/flattening is due to the fact they ask people to log their post vaccine symptoms, yet there's nowhere on the app for this to be separated from symptoms that could mean a case of actual Covid-19.

Could well be a factor.

bit of a faceplam, and sort of reason why i dont like Zoe app as a reference. its self selecting group providing data, not reliable.

meanwhile the latest React study shows 68% drop in infection, at only 0.44% prevalence.

 

[highflyer]

Worth mentioning - Tim Spector (who runs the ZOE app) has confirmed they are looking into whether part of the reason for the recent uptick/flattening is due to the fact they ask people to log their post vaccine symptoms, yet there's nowhere on the app for this to be separated from symptoms that could mean a case of actual Covid-19.

Could well be a factor.

Thanks, that's good to know, as I wasn't aware of that and it makes sense. Hopefully that's the cause, as it did seem surprising. As mentioned above, I was expecting some slow down in the decline, but not as much as seems to be showing, and the Zoe app has been very reliable up to now, as an early sign of trends so I don't think it can be ignored. Hopefully they will get that sorted out and we can move this discusson back onto the good news thread!

 

[highflyer]

bit of a faceplam, and sort of reason why i dont like Zoe app as a reference. its self selecting group providing data, not reliable.

meanwhile the latest React study shows 68% drop in infection, at only 0.44% prevalence.

It is what it is. All the sources have their own limitations, but as an indicator of trends overall it has been pretty accurate up to now I think, and slightly ahead of other data sources.