Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[e77]

Every time people have tried to play down the virus and open things up ahead of time it has come back and bitten us on the backside. Although the vaccine will take the old and vulnerable out of play in the not too distant future if it is allowed to run amok with the rest of us while we will have a much lower hospitalisation and death rate it is increasing the risk of it mutating again and becoming vaccine resistant.

It will begin to open up when it begins to open up. Businesses need supporting to get through this, not opening too early.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Every time people have tried to play down the virus and open things up ahead of time it has come back and bitten us on the backside. Although the vaccine will take the old and vulnerable out of play in the not too distant future if it is allowed to run amok with the rest of us while we will have a much lower hospitalisation and death rate it is increasing the risk of it mutating again and becoming vaccine resistant.

It will begin to open up when it begins to open up. Businesses need supporting to get through this, not opening too early.

If we continue to lockdown when the vaccine is doing its stuff, then all we achieve is to keep the virus running for longer. Has anyone ever done any experiments to test the likelihood of a virus mutation if there are 10 million cases over 1 year as opposed to 10 million cases over 10 years? If we don't have lockdown, most people will get this virus in the short term; if we do have lockdown, most people will get the virus in the medium term. I doubt it makes much difference to the chance of mutation.

What is the point of a vaccine if it isn't to release lockdown?

 

[dsr-burnley]

Whilst all deaths are tragic if one extra per day is deemed unacceptable we are stuck with this cycle for years and I don't think I can cope with that. Only quoted to respond to that point within your post. Don't think you agree with continued restrictions beyond a certain point at all

I don't object to individuals who want to restrict themselves. But if deaths are low and the NHS is not overwhelmed, I do not agree with government imposed restrictions. It is not the government's place to instruct my brothers that they cannot come and visit their mother - except in dire emergency. This is not, or should not be, a country where breathing can only be done with a government licence.

 

[e77]

If we continue to lockdown when the vaccine is doing its stuff, then all we achieve is to keep the virus running for longer. Has anyone ever done any experiments to test the likelihood of a virus mutation if there are 10 million cases over 1 year as opposed to 10 million cases over 10 years? If we don't have lockdown, most people will get this virus in the short term; if we do have lockdown, most people will get the virus in the medium term. I doubt it makes much difference to the chance of mutation.

What is the point of a vaccine if it isn't to release lockdown?

Don't get me wrong, once the vaccine is widely distributed then we have to attempt something to near normal but some are beginning to suggest we should rush to open everything once the old and vulnerable are done. There needs to be a final bit of patience to allow the vaccination process to do it's job.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

If true it’s a total and utter disgrace, there will be absolutely nothing left of the economy and the time between ‘easing’ is HIGHER than last year without a vaccine.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...nt-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

I know it’s in the mail so might not be true but it’s got me riled up.

Called July back in Dec

Just got to laugh now.

 

[crodonilson]

If true it’s a total and utter disgrace, there will be absolutely nothing left of the economy and the time between ‘easing’ is HIGHER than last year without a vaccine.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...nt-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

I know it’s in the mail so might not be true but it’s got me riled up.

This year though we have a more transmissible variant and other concerning mutations being identified.

Truth is last summer measures were relaxed too much and when cases started increasing in September we didn't lockdown to stop the spread. This way of doing things means with 4 weeks between each extra measure loosened we can review the data to ensure it's not having an adverse affect on cases and hospitalisations, if it is we can swiftly and decisively reimpose that measure. I'd guess the issue is with the length of time this will take we will be well into mid-summer by the time all sectors are open with social distancing in place, and by September I'd expect measures may be tightened again to avoid an Autumn upsurge and to help protect the NHS though next winter, so the window of enhanced freedoms may be quite short, but the government is stuck between a rock and a hard place with trying to protect health and the economy.

 

[dazzer6666]

This year though we have a more transmissible variant and other concerning mutations being identified.

Truth is last summer measures were relaxed too much and when cases started increasing in September we didn't lockdown to stop the spread. This way of doing things means with 4 weeks between each extra measure loosened we can review the data to ensure it's not having an adverse affect on cases and hospitalisations, if it is we can swiftly and decisively reimpose that measure. I'd guess the issue is with the length of time this will take we will be well into mid-summer by the time all sectors are open with social distancing in place, and by September I'd expect measures may be tightened again to avoid an Autumn upsurge and to help protect the NHS though next winter, so the window of enhanced freedoms may be quite short, but the government is stuck between a rock and a hard place with trying to protect health and the economy.

There absolutely should and will be steps to relax restrictions.......and agree a 3-4 week gap between those steps to understand the impact is necessary, but I personally don’t expect an ‘Autumn upsurge’ - by then everyone will have been double-jabbed. The data will continue to be monitored, further (annual) vaccinations will likely happen so I don’t see why there is likely to be an upsurge. I can see some restrictions continuing for the foreseeable as a precaution - masks on public transport etc.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

There absolutely should and will be steps to relax restrictions.......and agree a 3-4 week gap between those steps to understand the impact is necessary, but I personally don’t expect an ‘Autumn upsurge’ - by then everyone will have been double-jabbed. The data will continue to be monitored, further (annual) vaccinations will likely happen so I don’t see why there is likely to be an upsurge. I can see some restrictions continuing for the foreseeable as a precaution - masks on public transport etc.

It really does depend if the gov are still using cases to judge.

I’m not even sure a 1000 a day target is realistic to maintain.

A quick glance shows the lowest day was 460 last summer and that was with much less testing, plus the vaccine won’t stop to catching it just fight it, will we be testing those people? Will we move to deaths?

Obviously we need the full details, but this seems to potentially have us trapped in a cycle - unless something major changes like stop publishing deaths Daily/testing the vaccinated etc

 

[Rugrat]

It really does depend if the gov are still using cases to judge.

I’m not even sure a 1000 a day target is realistic to maintain.

A quick glance shows the lowest day was 460 last summer and that was with much less testing, plus the vaccine won’t stop to catching it just fight it, will we be testing those people? Will we move to deaths?

Obviously we need the full details, but this seems to potentially have us trapped in a cycle - unless something major changes like stop publishing deaths Daily/testing the vaccinated etc

If the vaccine largely does what it's supposed to do then the number of cases will hopefully become something of an irrelevance. I would hope that it is the number needing hospital treatment that will dictate future policies

 

[dazzer6666]

It really does depend if the gov are still using cases to judge.

I’m not even sure a 1000 a day target is realistic to maintain.

A quick glance shows the lowest day was 460 last summer and that was with much less testing, plus the vaccine won’t stop to catching it just fight it, will we be testing those people? Will we move to deaths?

Obviously we need the full details, but this seems to potentially have us trapped in a cycle - unless something major changes like stop publishing deaths Daily/testing the vaccinated etc

Not sure where this ‘1,000 a day’ came from (another leak presumably), but even if it’s a target to hit before easing restrictions, it doesn’t mean it would need to stay at 1,000 - logically you’d want a low starting base to be able to manage the situation from so it makes sense on that basis. At that level, with a vaccinated population, hospitalisations and deaths would be more or less zero so the number could easily be allowed to rise. It makes some kind of sense at this point though whilst we’re still in the middle of all this and all the numbers are still too high.

I suspect we’ll be close to that by 8th March based on the decline in infection numbers we’ve had in the last 5-6 weeks (and the modelling will show that), which again means the number kind of makes sense.

Think the really key number will be hospitalisations (deaths naturally follows as a % of that anyway) - if we significantly reduce/near-eliminate the numbers getting seriously ill then that drops to almost nothing. Focusing on infection numbers for now is probably the right idea as the other numbers are a factor of that.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

If the vaccine largely does what it's supposed to do then the number of cases will hopefully become something of an irrelevance. I would hope that it is the number needing hospital treatment that will dictate future policies

There will still be cases where one person passes it to another, it’s not 100 percent.

I do as well, but that’s where the stopping of daily cases numbers being released needs to stop

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Not sure where this ‘1,000 a day’ came from (another leak presumably), but even if it’s a target to hit before easing restrictions, it doesn’t mean it would need to stay at 1,000 - logically you’d want a low starting base to be able to manage the situation from so it makes sense on that basis. At that level, with a vaccinated population, hospitalisations and deaths would be more or less zero so the number could easily be allowed to rise. It makes some kind of sense at this point though whilst we’re still in the middle of all this and all the numbers are still too high.

I suspect we’ll be close to that by 8th March based on the decline in infection numbers we’ve had in the last 5-6 weeks (and the modelling will show that), which again means the number kind of makes sense.

Think the really key number will be hospitalisations (deaths naturally follows as a % of that anyway) - if we significantly reduce/near-eliminate the numbers getting seriously ill then that drops to almost nothing. Focusing on infection numbers for now is probably the right idea as the other numbers are a factor of that.

Few papers have picked up on it as a leak, seems fair to lump al them in together with the other leaks!


I agree regarding the key numbers, it’s more a case of when we move to them rather than cases, in my mind it should be as soon as the first lot of opening happens - cases should be kept an eye on for a bit of course.

There is a danger people just won’t get tested - more so asymptomatic

 

[highflyer]

Unfortunately the downward trend in infections seems to be levelling out. It may be a blip, as it's only been happening over a few days (on the Zoe app initially, but now signs in other data) but from watching trends over the last year, it looks more likely to me that we will now see a rise again. Who knows why this is happening - but I'd guess it's down to people relaxing in light of all the good news about the vaccination programme. It's not altogether suprising, as the vaccinations so far will have had a limited affect on transmissions and infections, both because it takes a few weeks to kick in and also as most of those getting vaccinated are likely to be the ones being most careful. If this new rise in infections does happen, then the question is whether or not hospitalizations continue to fall. I would expect that they will, unless the new rise is very rapid, given that we have vaccinated a high % of those most at risk. But it will take a quite a bit of time to know for sure (drops in hospitalization and deaths will certainly continue to decline for a while anyway, given the lag from the rapid reduction in infections over the previous few weeks). So I think a cautious approach is both necessary and inevitable.

 

[dazzer6666]

Unfortunately the downward trend in infections seems to be levelling out. It may be a blip, as it's only been happening over a few days (on the Zoe app initially, but now signs in other data) but from watching trends over the last year, it looks more likely to me that we will now see a rise again. Who knows why this is happening - but I'd guess it's down to people relaxing in light of all the good news about the vaccination programme. It's not altogether suprising, as the vaccinations so far will have had a limited affect on transmissions and infections, both because it takes a few weeks to kick in and also as most of those getting vaccinated are likely to be the ones being most careful. If this new rise in infections does happen, then the question is whether or not hospitalizations continue to fall. I would expect that they will, unless the new rise is very rapid, given that we have vaccinated a high % of those most at risk. But it will take a quite a bit of time to know for sure (drops in hospitalization and deaths will certainly continue to decline for a while anyway, given the lag from the rapid reduction in infections over the previous few weeks). So I think a cautious approach is
both necessary and inevitable.

Agree re a cautious approach, but last 7 day rolling period is 86,321, which down 33,204 (-27.8%). How is this 'levelling out' ? There are often daily fluctuations (the news outlets seem to ignore the trend and take delight in saying 'oooh, that's xxxx more than yesterday')

14-02-2021 7,500 4,054,870
13-02-2021 8,167 4,047,370
12-02-2021 11,987 4,039,203
11-02-2021 12,708 4,027,216
10-02-2021 13,471 4,014,508
09-02-2021 13,781 4,001,037
08-02-2021 15,763

*Number of people with at least one positive COVID-19 test result (either lab-reported or lateral flow device), by specimen date. Individuals tested positive more than once are only counted once, on the date of their first positive test. Data for the period ending 5 days before the date when the website was last updated with data for the selected area, highlighted in grey, is incomplete.

 

[highflyer]

Agree re a cautious approach, but last 7 day rolling period is 86,321, which down 33,204 (-27.8%). How is this 'levelling out' ? There are often daily fluctuations (the news outlets seem to ignore the trend and take delight in saying 'oooh, that's xxxx more than yesterday')

14-02-2021 7,500 4,054,870
13-02-2021 8,167 4,047,370
12-02-2021 11,987 4,039,203
11-02-2021 12,708 4,027,216
10-02-2021 13,471 4,014,508
09-02-2021 13,781 4,001,037
08-02-2021 15,763

*Number of people with at least one positive COVID-19 test result (either lab-reported or lateral flow device), by specimen date. Individuals tested positive more than once are only counted once, on the date of their first positive test. Data for the period ending 5 days before the date when the website was last updated with data for the selected area, highlighted in grey, is incomplete.

I really do hope it is not the case. My observation is mainly from the Zoe app, where there has been a definite slowdown and now very slight upturn over the last five days. That app is pretty reliable and tends to be the best early indicator of overall patterns, so I'm fairly sure this trend is 'real' but of course that doesn't mean it will continue long term. Fingers crossed the vaccination impact wll kick in and we'll see the drop start again. As you say, the testing data still seems positive, but even there I have noted some slowdown in the rate of drop in recent days and that there was an increase from the Monday to the Tuesday this week, which I think is the first time that has happened for a while?

 

[crodonilson]

Unfortunately the downward trend in infections seems to be levelling out. It may be a blip, as it's only been happening over a few days (on the Zoe app initially, but now signs in other data) but from watching trends over the last year, it looks more likely to me that we will now see a rise again. Who knows why this is happening - but I'd guess it's down to people relaxing in light of all the good news about the vaccination programme. It's not altogether suprising, as the vaccinations so far will have had a limited affect on transmissions and infections, both because it takes a few weeks to kick in and also as most of those getting vaccinated are likely to be the ones being most careful. If this new rise in infections does happen, then the question is whether or not hospitalizations continue to fall. I would expect that they will, unless the new rise is very rapid, given that we have vaccinated a high % of those most at risk. But it will take a quite a bit of time to know for sure (drops in hospitalization and deaths will certainly continue to decline for a while anyway, given the lag from the rapid reduction in infections over the previous few weeks). So I think a cautious approach is both necessary and inevitable.

If this is true it is alarming and concerning. if anything I'd have hoped the rate of decline in infections (approx 25% a week for 4 weeks now) might increase more dramatically as the affect of 20% of the population having good immunity now from vaccination and another 20-30% having some form of immunity from being previously infected would really start to slow the disease down. If what you say is true and with schools opening back up in a few weeks to further exacerbate the levelling off we will soon see a substantial increase in cases and lockdown will need to continue well into late spring before we can even contemplate carefully and slowly opening up. Let's hope this isn't the case.

 

[dazzer6666]

I really do hope it is not the case. My observation is mainly from the Zoe app, where there has been a definite slowdown and now very slight upturn over the last five days. That app is pretty reliable and tends to be the best early indicator of overall patterns, so I'm fairly sure this trend is 'real' but of course that doesn't mean it will continue long term. Fingers crossed the vaccination impact wll kick in and we'll see the drop start again. As you say, the testing data still seems positive, but even there I have noted some slowdown in the rate of drop in recent days and that there was an increase from the Monday to the Tuesday this week, which I think is the first time that has happened for a while?

No it isn't - there have been several days during the last few weeks where the number (in the official data, reported daily on the government website) has ticked up a bit then dropped again - I suspect it's as much to do with the reporting than the actual test results. The 7-day rolling figure is the key one as it'll smooth out any of those daily blips and that's still showing a very health decline (nearly 30% in the last 7 days, which has been the case for about 5 weeks now). The rate of decline is bound to slow down though as the base is now much lower - we've come from a peak of 70k/day to around 10k/day now. The extrapolations being reported in the press today take the 1k/day to be reached around April 7th (obviously plenty that could impact that either way)

 

[crodonilson]

No it isn't - there have been several days during the last few weeks where the number (in the official data, reported daily on the government website) has ticked up a bit then dropped again - I suspect it's as much to do with the reporting than the actual test results. The 7-day rolling figure is the key one as it'll smooth out any of those daily blips and that's still showing a very health decline (nearly 30% in the last 7 days, which has been the case for about 5 weeks now). The rate of decline is bound to slow down though as the base is now much lower - we've come from a peak of 70k/day to around 10k/day now. The extrapolations being reported in the press today take the 1k/day to be reached around April 7th (obviously plenty that could impact that either way)

Schools reopening will affect that, I'd be absolutely amazed if we're down to those levels by then unless the extra number of people vaccinated and with some protection cancels out the uptick in schools returning.

 

[highflyer]

No it isn't - there have been several days during the last few weeks where the number (in the official data, reported daily on the government website) has ticked up a bit then dropped again - I suspect it's as much to do with the reporting than the actual test results. The 7-day rolling figure is the key one as it'll smooth out any of those daily blips and that's still showing a very health decline (nearly 30% in the last 7 days, which has been the case for about 5 weeks now). The rate of decline is bound to slow down though as the base is now much lower - we've come from a peak of 70k/day to around 10k/day now. The extrapolations being reported in the press today take the 1k/day to be reached around April 7th (obviously plenty that could impact that either way)

I know there are daily fluctuations - and the 7 day rolling is key, but generally each week follows a similar patter, and I was looking specifically at the Monday to Tuesday change. Last week it went down, this week up a bit. It's a sample size of 1, so normally I'd not think twice, but as I said, the trend on the Zoe app had already caught my attention, so I have probably made far too much of it in my mind!

Anyway, even if this isn't just a blip in the data (and as the numbers get smaller, the blips get more likely), I'd be far less alarmist about it than [MENTION=3385]crodonilson[/MENTION] as I agree there was always going to be a slow down in the rate of decline and I wasn't expecting the vaccination programme to have much impact on infections rates YET (they will) - the first impact being on hospitalizations, and hopefully we will see the trends there continue to decline and then accelerate, independently of infection rates. And ultimately that is what matters most.

The vaccination programme WILL get us out of this.

 

[dazzer6666]

Schools reopening will affect that, I'd be absolutely amazed if we're down to those levels by then unless the extra number of people vaccinated and with some protection cancels out the uptick in schools returning.

That's exactly it - there might be lag or overlap, but the relaxing of restrictions is going to be balanced against the progressive vaccination plan. Boris is 100% right not to be committing to anything/any dates - need to tread softly and see how each step impacts the data. If the vaccinations don't cancel out the uptick at any stage we're ****ed - but it will providing the sequencing is sensible.