[Football] Promotion Calculator

[Giraffe]

I am not quite sure how you work out that Burnley have an easy run-in?

If you take the current position of the opposition that each of the top 6 still have left to play then Burnley actually have the toughest run-in, followed by 'Boro, although 6 of 'Boro's remaining games are at home - Hull do indeed have the easiest run-in numerically, but as they have shown recently, nothing should be taken for granted.

I have factored in teams that have nothing or very little to play for. I believe you would rather be playing someone in the middle third than in the bottom third. The margins are slim in this division meaning a team that gives a shit is a lot harder to beat than one that is already thinking about next season.

 

[KingstonSeagull]

Just re-did it and got:

Burnley 91
Hull 89 (ahead on gd)
Brighton 89
Boro 85

This would break my heart.

 

[8ace]

This article is also interesting (although from a few weeks ago) - it shows the A/E according to an xG model (not necessarily exactly the same as Experimental361's)



http://www.thesackrace.com/news/29t...dominates-the-championships-value-added-index

 

[Triggaaar]

so hundreds of poor quality shots (Tottenham) aren't as valuable as decent shots

Why have you got Spurs down as most poor quality shots? They're the division top scorers and not the most shots per goal.

 

[Triggaaar]

Just re-did it and got:

Burnley 91
Hull 89 (ahead on gd)
Brighton 89
Boro 85

Do it again.

 

[ipad1977]

'boro's points average would put them on just under 86 points, and they don't have an easy run in, so that would mean 85 - 86 points tops.

Using a points average overall I'd agree with you, but that doesn't take into account how Boro have performed this season against relative opposition and taking into account homes and aways. The unknown here is knowing what form Boro will be in after easter over 2 weeks away, what players they will have out, which have returned from injury etc. Prior to that they have just the one immediate game against a similar side form and squad wise at home. The only logic, scant at best, that can be applied to Boro is their results against different standards of opposition home and away.

Boro have almost a topsy-turvy record against sides in this regard which for them would mean the 2nd most difficult run in of the power 4 becomes near enough the 2nd easiest. They tend to struggle a lot against the relegation fodder at the rump end of the table, fare pretty well against sides in the middle third and almost hoover up points at will against the sides at the top. Aside from a loss away at Hull and Derby snatching a draw at the death at the Ipro Boro have pretty much batted every one of the top 6 aside, winning their other 5 games home and away and doing so comfortably in the main.

Whereas against the sides at the bottom, Bristol City home and away, Rotherham and Charlton away etc they are weak to the sucker punch.

In other words to beat Boro as the season stands statistically the team facing them has to actually be really $hit on paper. A strong side shouldn't pose them much problems on average.

Therefore the fixtures that they are most likely to come unstuck in are Bolton and QPR away. The last 4 games Boro have should actually work in their favour.

 

[darkwolf666]

I have factored in teams that have nothing or very little to play for. I believe you would rather be playing someone in the middle third than in the bottom third. The margins are slim in this division meaning a team that gives a shit is a lot harder to beat than one that is already thinking about next season.

Still don't really see it, Burnley have to play Boro and BHA, both sides playing for automatic promotion. they also have to play Cardiff, Birmingham and Preston - all sides aiming to clinch a play-off spot. Plenty of potential for them to drop points from these games.

That only leaves their games against Wolves, Leeds, QPR and Charlton!

 

[Triggaaar]

This article is also interesting (although from a few weeks ago) - it shows the A/E according to an xG model (not necessarily exactly the same as Experimental361's)

http://www.thesackrace.com/news/29t...dominates-the-championships-value-added-index

I appreciate the stats and analysis you post here, but I have to say I don’t think much of that one.

A managers points-per-game ratio versus what he should expect to return from his team’s shot ratio. WTF? That will favour teams that concentrate on a good defence (no need to shoot or score too much). And of course it’s relevant if a manager is getting his average players to play well and have more shots than they’d be expected to get.

A 0-0 with your team having zero shots would reflect well on the manager, but I’m not so sure the fans would agree.

 

[KingstonSeagull]

Do it again.

Haha, cherry pick a little?

 

[Triggaaar]

The only logic, scant at best, that can be applied to Boro is their results against different standards of opposition home and away.

Boro have almost a topsy-turvy record against sides in this regard which for them would mean the 2nd most difficult run in of the power 4 becomes near enough the 2nd easiest.

That's certainly how their season has been, but that doesn't mean it will continue to be. Opposing managers will of course have noticed it, and they'll look at how the games have played out - is it that better teams have been more open against them and suffered, while weaker teams have got men behind the ball, which has worked? Whatever it is I'm sure managers will be looking at it and how they set up to get the most from their game against 'boro.

For the remaining games I'd willingly bet that 'boro get more points from the lower half of their opponents than the top half. If your logic was really right, they'll walk the premier league next season.

 

[Triggaaar]

Haha, cherry pick a little?

Good lord no, do it honestly. But just keep doing it until you get it right

 

[kevo]

I've been looking at the link that 8ace put up, some really interesting stuff on there. The guy running that site uses a rating to rank teams, rating is based on shots, goals scored and conceded - shots have a value as well so hundreds of poor quality shots (Tottenham) aren't as valuable as decent shots - based on how often those types of shots are scored. Obviously when you look at the table and his ratings, things don't line up, but he reckons over a season it's accurate. Anyway, this graphic shows the remaining games for each team and how highly rated the opposition is.

Poor old QPR

View attachment 73093

Giving 4 for the hardest fixtures and 1 for the weakest, the average in terms of difficulty works out as:

Middlesbrough 2.8
Brighton 2.44
Burnley 2.33
Hull 2,3

So according to that graph, Boro have by far the toughest run-in. Then us. Not much to choose between Burnley and Hull.

But as mentioned above, this obviously doesn't take into account that teams at the bottom will probably prove harder opposition than those in mid-table at this time in the season.

 

[FatSuperman]

Why have you got Spurs down as most poor quality shots? They're the division top scorers and not the most shots per goal.

Ah yes that's misleading when I dig further. I took it from the site itself, he comments that if you used shots as a measure then Tottenham are the top threat, but when you consider the quality of the shot, they are much lower down the list as many of their attempts are from distance or are poor quality shots (perhaps better phrased as 'the type of shot that does not go in as often'). This was on the page explaining about the rating system, which I think is in reference to last season. Certainly when you look at the charts on the Prem for this season Spurs are well up there, only Man City take more shots (and are a little bit more accurate). Actually these Prem charts are fascinating, MC take more shots than anyone else, are more accurate than anyone and face less shots than anyone. Unfortunately for them they let in a lot of those shots, so if you can get through the City midfield and get a decent shot away, you've got a decent chance of it going in.

As of early Feb anyway.

http://experimental361.com/2016/02/07/scatter-graphics-premier-league-7-feb-2016/

 

[KingstonSeagull]

I don't think it will happen but I don't get why the odds are so wide on us to be Champions.. Burnley 2.35, Boro 6.8, Hull 9.6, Albion 23.....

 

[FatSuperman]

Giving 4 for the hardest fixtures and 1 for the weakest, the average in terms of difficulty works out as:

Middlesbrough 2.8
Brighton 2.44
Burnley 2.33
Hull 2,3

Interesting. Like we are all saying, it just comes down to what happens on the day, any team can beat (or lose to!) any other team. I'm torn as to how much weight to put against form, but it has to be worth something. I guess to get to a reasonably educated guess we could use one of the rating systems, a 'run in difficulty' modifier, current form, some weighting based on injuries and also players suspended due to pissing in cups.

 

[TSB]

Giving 4 for the hardest fixtures and 1 for the weakest, the average in terms of difficulty works out as:

Middlesbrough 2.8
Brighton 2.44
Burnley 2.33
Hull 2,3

Can't be right. Trigaaaaar told us in no uncertain terms just how easy Hull's run-in is.
Not exactly a massive gulf between theirs and ours. (Though I don't really understand how that numbering works)

 

[DFL JCL]

looking at the league table, with just 5 losses on the board this season. If we can keep that 7 or below i think we have a massive shot at automatic promotion. Hopefully draws don't cost us like 2012-2013.

 

[Triggaaar]

Actually these Prem charts are fascinating, MC take more shots than anyone else, are more accurate than anyone and face less shots than anyone.

When you say more accurate, do you mean shots on target, rather than goals? As MC haven't scored as many as Leicester or Spurs.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Giving 4 for the hardest fixtures and 1 for the weakest, the average in terms of difficulty works out as:

Middlesbrough 2.8
Brighton 2.44
Burnley 2.33
Hull 2,3

So according to that graph, Boro have by far the toughest run-in. Then us. Not much to choose between Burnley and Hull.

But as mentioned above, this obviously doesn't take into account that teams at the bottom will probably prove harder opposition than those in mid-table at this time in the season.

And also does not take into account that teams have little bursts on and off form. Game at a time...

 

[Rodney Thomas]

I have it going into the last day with us, Hull and Boro chasing second place. I have then predicted Hull to win and Us/Boro to draw giving Hull the final promotion place.