[Football] Promotion Calculator

[8ace]

Do you have an update on this model [MENTION=588]8ace[/MENTION] ?

PG

 

[Triggaaar]

I hereby declare the 'expected goals model', shit.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I hereby declare the 'expected goals model', shit.

Here here

 

[Dolph Ins]

Just looked at whoscored.

When playing 442 p34 w19 d12 l3 f50 a29
When playing 433,4411,451 p4 w0 d2 l2 f2 a6

Please Chris go with the 442 even if it does mean we get stuffed (very) occasionally

 

[Hugo Rune]

I wanted to look at which side out of the top 4 had the easiest run in when looking at the recent league form of all teams(last 6 games). I've given each team a score that I've calculated using the 6 game form league position of the team's various opponents still to play; the highest score being the easiest run in. I've not built in home/away adjustments but it looks like Hull have the easiest run in at present.

Hull 106
Brighton 100
Boro 83
Burnley 80

NOTE: These are not a final points tally but a separate score indicating ease of run-in.

 

[Napier's Knee]

Love to know what Uncle Tony's betting algorithms say!

 

[Triggaaar]

it looks like Hull have the easiest run in at present.

That's all well and good, but now you've got to explain yourself to TSB.

 

[smeg]

Burnley are fourth using your calculations, I can't see them throwing this away but let's hope so

Promotion Calculator

http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=2

With a home record of W 5 D 1 L 0

beating Sheff Wed, Burnley, Derby and drawing at Boro and we come second behind Boro where we would need a draw and Boro already Champions.

Failure in any of the above four and its the play-offs.

Results away at Birmingham are the dog's chance. But when it came down to it it did not make difference. It is really important that we do not lose to Burnley at home.

 

[StonehamPark]

Current prediction. So, so close!

View attachment 73075

After this weekend's results.
No idea if I've put in the predictions as last week.

 

[Rugrat]

There's a ton of positive variables now. Beating Burnley, picking up more than 3 points from the next 3 games or 1 more slip up by Hull and Boro. Feels like we have got a bit of insurance to play with

 

[Hugo Rune]

It is clear that the Burnley game is the most important since Derby away in the play-offs but I do appreciate they are all cup finals now to some extent.

 

[worthingseagull]

whoops

 

[Davemania]

I've calculated that we're going to get PROMOTED. Well done Albion

 

[Triggaaar]

There's a ton of positive variables now. Beating Burnley, picking up more than 3 points from the next 3 games or 1 more slip up by Hull and Boro. Feels like we have got a bit of insurance to play with

That all sounds great, then you show us finishing 4th?

 

[Triggaaar]

It is clear that the Burnley game is the most important since Derby away in the play-offs but I do appreciate they are all cup finals now to some extent.

By the time we go to 'boro it might be a meaningless game, but right now it looks like the most important. A big 6 pointer.

 

[Hugo Rune]

By the time we go to 'boro it might be a meaningless game, but right now it looks like the most important. A big 6 pointer.

Indeed. I'd also love for us to play a relegated Charlton as teams 'already down' have a poor record.

 

[Rugrat]

That all sounds great, then you show us finishing 4th?

Can't be disappointed then!

Believe me I want to change one of the next three 1's to a 3 but I like the thought of winning the hard way

 

[Nathan]

There's a ton of positive variables now. Beating Burnley, picking up more than 3 points from the next 3 games or 1 more slip up by Hull and Boro. Feels like we have got a bit of insurance to play with

View attachment 73198

That would put us in 2nd place with the Boro game to go. Its going to tight isn't it, win that game and we are up!

 

[perseus]

The Wire

My predictions put Hull as runaway leaders and Boro, Albion and Burnley (one less) all on about or exactly the same number of points going into the final game.

This means that Boro of Albion both need to win the final game and both miss out to Burnley if it is a draw. Last game mysteriously kicks off a few minutes late. So do Burnley at home, not to be robbed in the last seconds of the 46.

Hull have nine games to go, eight against teams in the bottom half of the table.
http://www.statto.com/football/teams/hull-city

Hull 1-8 Top half clubs first
Brighton 5-3
Burnley 6-2
Boro 6-3
Derby 5-3
Wednesday 3-5

 

[Triggaaar]

That would put us in 2nd place with the Boro game to go. Its going to tight isn't it, win that game and we are up!

Yeah, but it would be easier to win the playoff final.