[Football] Promotion Calculator

[darkwolf666]

My predictions put Hull as runaway leaders and Boro, Albion and Burnley (one less) all on about or exactly the same number of points going into the final game.

This means that Boro of Albion both need to win the final game and both miss out to Burnley if it is a draw. Last game mysteriously kicks off a few minutes late. So do Burnley at home, not to be robbed in the last seconds of the 46.

Hull have nine games to go, eight against teams in the bottom half of the table.
http://www.statto.com/football/teams/hull-city

Hull 1-8 Top half clubs first
Brighton 5-3
Burnley 6-2
Boro 6-3
Derby 5-3
Wednesday 3-5

You have Hull as runaway leaders going into the final game, is this the same Hull that are currently 9 points behind the current leaders Burnley.

Exactly how many points does "runaway" make - how many points are Burnley going to drop to allow Hull to runaway?

Let's make an assumption that runaway means they can't be caught on the last game, so 4 points clear, this means they are going to make up 13 points on Burnley in the next 9 games. So Burnley are going to get beaten a minimum of 4 times in their next 8 games? Which would mean that Hull would need to win 8 and draw 1 of their last 9 - this the same Hull who have only won 1 of the last 6 games and only scored 3 goals during that time! Some turn around in fortunes.

 

[Nathan]

You can get odds of 10/1 for hull to win the league. As it goes that is the same price as Brighton but the Brighton bet I think is good value, although could be over if we lose our next game!

 

[Triggaaar]

You can get odds of 10/1 for hull to win the league. As it goes that is the same price as Brighton but the Brighton bet I think is good value, although could be over if we lose our next game!

Wait until after the next game. Even if we win it, we'll still be 10/1, because we're invisible.

 

[TSB]

That's all well and good, but now you've got to explain yourself to TSB.

Big difference between 'easiest' and 'easy'. Also expectation vs reality.
I'd wager they'll take 17 points or under from their 9 games.

 

[Triggaaar]

Big difference between 'easiest' and 'easy'.

But easiest is what I was saying If I said easy, it would only have been in the context of the run-ins for the other teams - ie, easiest.

I'd wager they'll take 17 points or under from their 9 games.

Very possibly, given that they've lost form.

 

[kevo]

Haven't done this before, this is what I just got:


1 Burnley 46 +35 89
2 Brighton 46 +25 89
3 Boro 46 +30 86
4 Hull 46 +33 84

 

[perseus]

You have Hull as runaway leaders going into the final game, is this the same Hull that are currently 9 points behind the current leaders Burnley.

Exactly how many points does "runaway" make - how many points are Burnley going to drop to allow Hull to runaway?

Let's make an assumption that runaway means they can't be caught on the last game, so 4 points clear, this means they are going to make up 13 points on Burnley in the next 9 games. So Burnley are going to get beaten a minimum of 4 times in their next 8 games? Which would mean that Hull would need to win 8 and draw 1 of their last 9 - this the same Hull who have only won 1 of the last 6 games and only scored 3 goals during that time! Some turn around in fortunes.

It is hard to see Hull losing any. http://www.statto.com/football/teams/hull-city except perhaps Derby away, and they don't tend to draw, either have an off day and lose, or win with something to spare.

I put their current run of bad form due to difficult opponents. All their opponents will have nothing to play for after they get past the Derby game. Bristol City (H), Derby (A) are two of their tricker games coming up next for them. The only other team that might be playing for points is Rotherham at home in their last game.

When it comes to the crunch it is getting three points from the home games. Always possible to slip up if the visitors score first. Hull (like the Albion have slipped up in games they were expected to win). They could do it again, I suppose?

Anyrate, I did it via the calculator and had them home and dry before the last game. This means they will have to have at least one very bad result to stop them and the other clubs not slipping up at all. If they lose at Derby (other than draw) it will draw them closer to the pack, but they will still have to balls it up. Bruce balls it up staying in the PL by losing at home to Burnley but the opposition they face is all games they would be expected not to lose.

I think it will probably best if Derby and Hull draw. But Hull win the games they ought to, we won't be able to keep up with them.

 

[Bigtomfu]

Haven't done this before, this is what I just got:


1Burnley46+3589
2Brighton46+2589
3Boro 46+3086
4Hull 46+3384

This feels like a likely scenario to me and will see us lose the title because we weren't expansive enough at times.

Would be bloody lovely to own that wonderful original football league trophy if only for a season.

 

[Steve Foster]

I have QPR v Middlesbrough down as a draw tonight, us to lose tomorrow, Hull to beat Bristol City meaning:

Burnley 90
Middlesbrough 88
Hull 86
BHA 85

If we win tomorrow, that could be the key, meaning us & Middlesbrough going up automatically (in my world!)

 

[Rugrat]

I have QPR v Middlesbrough down as a draw tonight, us to lose tomorrow, Hull to beat Bristol City meaning:

Burnley 90
Middlesbrough 88
Hull 86
BHA 85

If we win tomorrow, that could be the key, meaning us & Middlesbrough going up automatically (in my world!)

I'd go along with Boro on 88 but 90 for Burnley if they beat us? That's only 12 from their last 7 games, 5 of which look like 'bankers' given their form. The 2 dodgys; Brum (a) and Boro (h) still look to be a minimum of another 2

Burnley are massive favourites for promotion for good reason but if we can beat them tomorrow I'd say 'them and us'

 

[Steve Foster]

I'd go along with Boro on 88 but 90 for Burnley if they beat us? That's only 12 from their last 7 games, 5 of which look like 'bankers' given their form. The 2 dodgys; Brum (a) and Boro (h) still look to be a minimum of another 2

Burnley are massive favourites for promotion for good reason but if we can beat them tomorrow I'd say 'them and us'

Burnley currently on 75 points.

I have them:

BHA (A) win
Cardiff (H) win
Leeds (H) draw
Birmingham (A) draw
Middlesbrough (H) draw
Preston (A) lose
QPR (H) win
Charlton (A) win

= 90 points.

We win tomorrow & I have got them finishing 3rd. Many a trip between now & May no doubt

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Win tomorrow and we are going straight up,lose and we will have to take the play offs a draw will hang it in the balance....just a feeling.

 

[Steve Foster]

I have QPR v Middlesbrough down as a draw tonight, us to lose tomorrow, Hull to beat Bristol City meaning:

Burnley 90
Middlesbrough 88
Hull 86
BHA 85

If we win tomorrow, that could be the key, meaning us & Middlesbrough going up automatically (in my world!)

Ok a slight change now:

Us & Borough going up now ..... If we win tomorrow!

 

[perseus]

I had Boro down as a draw at QPR. Two points mucks it up.

 

[perseus]

Win at Birmingham and it can still go to the wire (last few minutes of the last game of the 46).

 

[sparkie]

Generally resist doing predictors until after 40 games have passed.

Might as well wait until after the Saturday games and then I'll have a go before we play Forest.

As of now my non-predictor forecast is that 90 points are required for us to make 2nd place.

 

[Steve Foster]

Win at Birmingham and it can still go to the wire (last few minutes of the last game of the 46).

Interestingly I have us to draw tonight, Hull & Middlesbrough to win & Burnley to draw.

Going into the last game of the season, I have Middlesbrough on 87, us 86, Burnley 85 & Hull 83 - meaning a win at Teeside will be needed. Now that will be one hell of a nervous day ....

 

[8ace]

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I can see Cardiff getting something at Burnley tonight. It was 2-2 last November with Burnley getting the point via an og.
Come on Russell, do us a big favour.

 

[sparkie]

I can see Cardiff getting something at Burnley tonight. It was 2-2 last November with Burnley getting the point via an og.
Come on Russell, do us a big favour.

Agreed, although one of the Burnley fans has asked us to look at the table on Saturday night to see how far ahead they are.