[Football] Promotion Calculator

[Rugrat]

Sheffield Wednesday have won 4 on the bounce so I won't necessarily write them off yet.

Even if the win all 6 they can only get to 86 points which won't be anything like enough. 89 will be the minimum I imagine, or 90 in our case

 

[sparkie]

Sheffield Wednesday have won 4 on the bounce so I won't necessarily write them off yet.

I'll write them off.

They can get a maximum of 86 points which won't be enough for top 2.

 

[darkwolf666]

Games	Burnley	Boro	Brighton	Hull	Sheff Wed	Derby
39	76	76	72	69	65	64
40	77	79	75	70	68	67
41	80	82	76	73	69	70
42	81	85	79	74	72	73
43	84	85	82	77	75	73
44	85	88	85	80	75	76
45	88	89	88	83	78	76
46	91	90	89	86	79	79

This is how I see the game by game points totals running - This would leave us going into the final game at Boro, with Boro on 89 points and Burnley and us on 88 points. I then have Burnley to win away at Charlton to become champions, while we can only draw with Boro, who pinch second spot!

This has been my scenario for quite a while now, individual results may change, but the general picture appears to stay the same. Mind you, the above points scenario is with Burnley beating Boro, if Boro do us a massive favour and go to Burnley and win then we could yet sneak into second!

All probably complete bollox, but good fun speculating.

 

[Rugrat]

This is how I see the game by game points totals running - This would leave us going into the final game at Boro, with Boro on 89 points and Burnley and us on 88 points. I then have Burnley to win away at Charlton to become champions, while we can only draw with Boro, who pinch second spot!

This has been my scenario for quite a while now, individual results may change, but the general picture appears to stay the same. Mind you, the above points scenario is with Burnley beating Boro, if Boro do us a massive favour and go to Burnley and win then we could yet sneak into second!

All probably complete bollox, but good fun speculating.

I have very similar and like you I've got a draw at Forest. But after last night I should be more optimistic. Forest are piss poor and apart from Bolton have the worst form in the league, we should beat them. If we do then I've got a scenario where the Boro result becomes irrelevant where autos are concerned. How good would that be?

 

[fleet]

It still looks to me that we might end up being third on goal difference - hope that doesn't end up costing us.

 

[Brian Fantana]

I've got us finishing third as well.

 

[Peter Grummit]

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid=73474&d=1459941225&thumb=1&stc=1

The model gives us a 30% chance of the top 2. Plus 70%/4 through the playoffs equates to around a 47% chance of promotion. Given our form, round it up to 50/50.

PG

 

[Goldstone1976]

Having just checked my open bets I'm predicting Burnley top and us second. Not impossible and very profitable too. UTA.

 

[Nathan]

My updated table now has us finishing second, with a draw on the final day.

Burnley 91
Brighton 89
Boro 88
Hull 88

 

[KingstonSeagull]

1 Boro 46 +35 90
2 Brighton 46 +25 89
3 Burnley 46 +30 84

Some how ended up with this

 

[Napier's Knee]

A view from Hul.......
http://www.not606.com/threads/the-run-in.326634/

 

[ManxSeagull]

My updated table now has us finishing second, with a draw on the final day.

Burnley 91
Brighton 89
Boro 88
Hull 88

Exactly what I got

 

[Tekanne]

Yes please..!

 

[perseus]

Up until the last Game

ALBION

Forest (a) Draw
Fulham (h) Win
QPR (h) Draw (wobble)
Charlton (a) Win
Derby (h) Win (Derby saving their strength for the play-offs) 11 pts GD + 4 = 86

Boro (a)

BURNLEY

Leeds (h) Win
Birmingham (a) Win
Boro (h) Draw
PNE (a) Draw (wobble)
QPR (h) Win 11pts GD +6 = 88

Charlton (a)


BORO

PNE (h) Win
Reading (h) Draw (wobble)
Bolton (a) Win
Burnley (a) Draw
Ipswich (h) Draw (wobble)
Birmingham (a) Win 12pts GD +7 = 88

Albion (h)

HULL

Huddersfield (a) Draw
Wolves (h) Win
Reading (a) Lose (wobble)
Leeds (h) Win
Brentford (h) Win
Bolton (a) Win 13 pts GD +5 = 82

Rotherham (h)

 

[perseus]

Wobble Free Zone

SHEFF WED

Bristol C (a) Win
Ipswich (h) Win
MK Dons (h) Win
Derby (a) Draw
Cardiff (h) Draw

Wolves (a)

11 pts +7 Pts 79

DERBY

Bolton (h) Win
Charlton (a) Draw
Bristol C (a) Win
Sheff Wed (h) Draw
Brighton (a) Lose

Ipswich (h)

8 pts +4 Pts 75

CARDIFF

72 pts (possibly 75)

Before the last game:

Burnley 88 GD 36
Middlesbro 88 GD 36
----------------------------------------
Brighton 86 GD 22
Hull C 82 GD 32
Sheff W 79 GD 29
Derby 75 GD 26
----------------------------------------
Cardiff 72

So Albion have to go to Boro needing a win and Boro only need a draw to go up.
Burnley need a draw away to Charlton who will most likely be already relegated.

It is easy to see why Burnley and Boro are clear favourites.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I think we'll finish well like 12/13 with the Burnley run of draws to continue until Boro end their hopes. That will leave us with a fitting final day of the season featuring a game suiting the most competitive and hardest league in the world with the Championship at stake!

ALBION

Forest (a) Win
Fulham (h) Win
QPR (h) Win
Charlton (a) Win
Derby (h) Draw 13 pts = 88

Boro (a)

BURNLEY

Leeds (h) Draw
Birmingham (a) Draw
Boro (h) Lose
PNE (a) Draw
QPR (h) Win 6pts = 83

Charlton (a)


BORO

PNE (h) Draw
Reading (h) Win
Bolton (a) Win
Burnley (a) Win
Ipswich (h) Draw
Birmingham (a) Draw 12pts = 88

Albion (h)

HULL

Play-Offs

 

[perseus]

Brighton boss Chris Hughton hopes it's still all to play for in the final game of the season. http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/sport/...s/brighton-boss-chris-hughton-hopes-11145946?

Comment: final game of the season means the autos.

 

[Notters]

Brighton boss Chris Hughton hopes it's still all to play for in the final game of the season. http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/sport/...s/brighton-boss-chris-hughton-hopes-11145946?

Comment: final game of the season means the autos.

Really? I hope it's long since done and dusted.

 

[perseus]

A draw guarenting both sides automatic promotion to the Premier League. Oh that would be wonderful!

Calculator with scores:

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

The most likely good run in sees Albion need to win at Boro (Boro need a draw and a win to be Champions) and Burnley (at Charlton) need to draw. We could be drawing at Boro and Burnley get a penalty for a draw in the 96th minute.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

I think Burnley will get 8 (1 loss, 2 draws, 2 wins) from the next 5 whilst we will get 13, that would put it as

Boro Promoted
Brighton 88
Burnley 85 (effectively 86 due to GD)

We role over a Boro team recovering from a hangover on the final day.