[Football] Promotion Calculator

[Rugrat]

I'm predicting nothing because it's totally pointless.

You may as well tell all those doing the predictor thing to have a bet on their 50 game (or whatever it is) accumulator. And then another bet after they get one of the results wrong on Saturday etc etc. I wonder how many predicted Boro to lose to Charlton and Rotherham and Hull to draw with MK Franchise and Forest? I also expect that their predictions include the same teams beating "better" sides than those and I'd happily bet that nobody will get anywhere near predicting all the results correctly.

[emoji8]

You're right about the success rate ... see mine above it's little better than 50% but it is (loosely) swings and roundabouts and it kind of evens itself out to some extent.

These things are always going to be dynamic so will change on the fly.

I have fun with it and it's more a 'what if' than a predictor, just seeing what needs to be done, how it might be done rather than nailing anything to a wall and saying that's how it will end. I get the sense that most having a stab at it do the same

 

[Machiavelli]

We're nearly in agreement! Now have us needing a win on last day for 2nd .... just can't get myself changing that zero to a 3 just now and hoping I don't need to

View attachment 73078

Just for my gratification, what was your prediction five games to go?

 

[DavePage]

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Burnley	46	+36	94
2	Brighton	46	+27	89
3	Hull	46	+36	86
4	Middlesbrough	46	+27	84
5	Sheff Wed	46	+25	78
6	Cardiff	46	+18	78
7	Ipswich	46	+8	76
8	Derby	46	+14	73
9	Birmingham	46	+5	68
10	Preston	46	+1	66
11	Leeds	46	-6	60
12	Reading	46	-1	58
13	QPR	46	-2	57
14	Nott'm Forest	46	-3	56
15	Wolverhampton	46	-9	55
16	Bristol City	46	-23	54
17	Brentford	46	-13	53
18	Blackburn	46	-2	52
19	Rotherham	46	-18	50
20	Fulham	46	-13	44
21	MK Dons	46	-24	44
22	Huddersfield	46	-15	43
23	Charlton	46	-34	40
24	Bolton	46	-34	32

Mine for what it’s worth

 

[Machiavelli]

Shan't. I'm not negative, just realistic. I find it better to manage my expectations rather than get carried away because a couple of teams have lost form.

And there I was thinking that the massive points totals that the top x teams would accrue made you a delusional fantasist

 

[TSB]

And there I was thinking that the massive points totals that the top x teams would accrue made you a delusional fantasist

Burn.

 

[swindonseagull]

Its all crap.....its the real results that matter.

 

[Rugrat]

Just for my gratification, what was your prediction five games to go?

On this thread https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?334395-How-many-points-will-we-end-the-season-with

So all fairly random, but as I said I find it interesting to see what could happen, needs to happen

Predicting outcomes of games is nothing new, look at the pundits every pre match ... nor are they any better. All based on quality of squad, quality of oppo and form I guess

 

[Giraffe]

I was very confident of us achieving the top two but have just done this and now not as confident. I get this:

1 Burnley 46 +36 91
2 Hull 46 +38 88
3 Brighton 46 +23 85
4 Middlesbrough 46 +28 83

It's not until you go through the fixtures that you realise that Hull and Burnley really do have a much easier run in than us.

 

[TSB]

I was very confident of us achieving the top two but have just done this and now not as confident. I get this:

1 Burnley 46 +36 91
2 Hull 46 +38 88
3 Brighton 46 +23 85
4 Middlesbrough 46 +28 83

It's not until you go through the fixtures that you realise that Hull and Burnley really do have a much easier run in than us.

You're right about Boro's fixtures. They're brutal. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see them finish below us..but I think they'll win Friday which would deduct a point at least from most people's prediction for Hull. By those small margins...

 

[Machiavelli]

On this thread https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?334395-How-many-points-will-we-end-the-season-with

So all fairly random, but as I said I find it interesting to see what could happen, needs to happen

Predicting outcomes of games is nothing new, look at the pundits every pre match ... nor are they any better. All based on quality of squad, quality of oppo and form I guess

View attachment 73084

Thanks, and I take all your caveats, and your reasons for doing it. If you compare it with what you're now predicting, it just goes to show what a difference five games make.

 

[Jim D]

We're nearly in agreement! Now have us needing a win on last day for 2nd .... just can't get myself changing that zero to a 3 just now and hoping I don't need to

View attachment 73078

If this accurately shows the position after 45 games then Burnley would have 92 points, we would have 86 points in second, Hull would have 85 and Boro 82 (meaning they couldn’t get auto). It would mean a win for us at Boro would get us promoted. This situation will hold fond memories for anyone around in 1979 and I would fancy us strongly to win that game.....

 

[darkwolf666]

I was very confident of us achieving the top two but have just done this and now not as confident. I get this:

1 Burnley 46 +36 91
2 Hull 46 +38 88
3 Brighton 46 +23 85
4 Middlesbrough 46 +28 83

It's not until you go through the fixtures that you realise that Hull and Burnley really do have a much easier run in than us.

I am not quite sure how you work out that Burnley have an easy run-in?

If you take the current position of the opposition that each of the top 6 still have left to play then Burnley actually have the toughest run-in, followed by 'Boro, although 6 of 'Boro's remaining games are at home - Hull do indeed have the easiest run-in numerically, but as they have shown recently, nothing should be taken for granted.

 

[ipad1977]

I am not quite sure how you work out that Burnley have an easy run-in?

If you take the current position of the opposition that each of the top 6 still have left to play then Burnley actually have the toughest run-in, followed by 'Boro, although 6 of 'Boro's remaining games are at home - Hull do indeed have the easiest run-in numerically, but as they have shown recently, nothing should be taken for granted.

Boro are a lot harder to predict than the others given the unknown effect of Karanka's return. On the whole season's form mathematically against different levels of teams and taking into account home and away games, Boro are most likely to get 87-88 points. The remaining teams they are most likely to drop points against are Bolton and QPR. If Brighton get more than this I think they'll finish in the autos. 89 should definitely be enough for the autos this year.

 

[sparkie]

Boro are a lot harder to predict than the others given the unknown effect of Karanka's return. On the whole season's form mathematically against different levels of teams and taking into account home and away games, Boro are most likely to get 87-88 points. The remaining teams they are most likely to drop points against are Bolton and QPR. If Brighton get more than this I think they'll finish in the autos. 89 should definitely be enough for the autos this year.

Agreed. 89 should do it.

I was thinking 92 before Boro lost to Charlton, and Hull only got 2 points from MKD and Forest, but 89 seems reasonable now.


On another point, I actually think we have a reasonable chance of beating Burnley on April 2.

That will set the cat amongst the promotion pigeons.

 

[darkwolf666]

Agreed. 89 should do it.

I was thinking 92 before Boro lost to Charlton, and Hull only got 2 points from MKD and Forest, but 89 seems reasonable now.


On another point, I actually think we have a reasonable chance of beating Burnley on April 2.

That will set the cat amongst the promotion pigeons.

Think we have a more than reasonable chance of beating Burnley - again, nothing to be scared of. Don't you just love a good old-fashioned six-pointer

 

[ipad1977]

Agreed. 89 should do it.

I was thinking 92 before Boro lost to Charlton, and Hull only got 2 points from MKD and Forest, but 89 seems reasonable now.


On another point, I actually think we have a reasonable chance of beating Burnley on April 2.

That will set the cat amongst the promotion pigeons.

Despite being away from home statistically speaking Boro have a good chance of taking points off Burnley too, moreso than QPR, or Bolton, though probably a point apiece. It may mean even Burnley are fighting till the last game or two.

 

[severnside gull]

I have us needing to win at Boro and relying on Hull losing - playoffs it is then

 

[Triggaaar]

I am not quite sure how you work out that Burnley have an easy run-in?

If you take the current position of the opposition that each of the top 6 still have left to play then Burnley actually have the toughest run-in, followed by 'Boro, although 6 of 'Boro's remaining games are at home

Is surprisingly the right answer (I've only looked at the top 4 teams), although the extra home games do help.

 

[Triggaaar]

Boro are a lot harder to predict than the others given the unknown effect of Karanka's return. On the whole season's form mathematically against different levels of teams and taking into account home and away games, Boro are most likely to get 87-88 points.

'boro's points average would put them on just under 86 points, and they don't have an easy run in, so that would mean 85 - 86 points tops.

Agreed. 89 should do it.

So we need 7 wins out of 9 games. Let's hope you're wrong then, because that's pretty unlikely. Hull or 'boro would do very well to get 88 points given their current form.

I was thinking 92 before Boro lost to Charlton, and Hull only got 2 points from MKD and Forest, but 89 seems reasonable now.

89 isn't reasonable, it's a really tough ask, but fortunately unlikely we'll need that many.

 

[FatSuperman]

I've been looking at the link that 8ace put up, some really interesting stuff on there. The guy running that site uses a rating to rank teams, rating is based on shots, goals scored and conceded - shots have a value as well so hundreds of poor quality shots (Tottenham) aren't as valuable as decent shots - based on how often those types of shots are scored. Obviously when you look at the table and his ratings, things don't line up, but he reckons over a season it's accurate. Anyway, this graphic shows the remaining games for each team and how highly rated the opposition is.

Poor old QPR