[Albion] Points Required for 6th Place - Us, Liverpool, Spurs & Villa Remaining Fixtures

[The Optimist]

Suspect that will be close enough to what transpires.
As a (related) aside, I'm getting utterly irritated/perplexed/... by those that are claiming that we need 9 or 10 points to get into the EL.

Do you mean we won’t need 9 points because Villa and Spurs won’t pick up enough points to force us to need 9 points?

9 points and we will finish at least 7th. 12 points and we will finish at least 6th. But yes in all likelihood we won’t need that many points to achieve those positions.

 

[Triggaaar]

As a (related) aside, I'm getting utterly irritated/perplexed/... by those that are claiming that we need 9 or 10 points to get into the EL.

Do you mean '9 or 10' from when this thread started, or from now (as we've already got 3)? Because I can't see that anyone has suggested another 9 or 10 since our win against Utd.

 

[GOM]

Although their games don't look easy on paper, I really don't like that they're at home against us for the last game of the season. That's a huge advantage to them I feel, in what could be a winner takes all game.

We've been there before too.........

 

[BN41Albion]

Although their games don't look easy on paper, I really don't like that they're at home against us for the last game of the season. That's a huge advantage to them I feel, in what could be a winner takes all game.

I'm hopeful that with their games and what with our games in hand we'll be at least 3 points clear of them by then (3 would be fine for us what with GD)

 

[Bodian]

I'm hopeful that with their games and what with our games in hand we'll be at least 3 points clear of them by then (3 would be fine for us what with GD)

I'm on holiday for the City game - so I'm hoping we have a Europa League place all sown up by then!

 

[Triggaaar]

I do look forward to my weekends, so I currently feel a bit silly wishing some of it away - I'm just in limbo, waiting for the Spuds and Villa results.

 

[Bodian]

I do look forward to my weekends, so I currently feel a bit silly wishing some of it away - I'm just in limbo, waiting for the Spuds and Villa results.

Personally, I could do without this weekend at all - just move quickly to Monday 5.30pm. We still have six games of tis wonderful season to go, and I can't wait to watch us play in them.

 

[Machiavelli]

Do you mean we won’t need 9 points because Villa and Spurs won’t pick up enough points to force us to need 9 points?

9 points and we will finish at least 7th. 12 points and we will finish at least 6th. But yes in all likelihood we won’t need that many points to achieve those positions.

Mostly, yes, although being pedantic I'd say that we're already 1.5 points ahead of them (55v54, plus superior goal difference). They'd both need to get 10 points to get to 64. Given Spurs' form and Villa's run-in, I'd be surprised if either of them got more than 7 from now. But, yes, people are often talking about different things: mathematics or the maximum a club can get versus probability/predictions.

 

[Bakero]

I'm hoping we have a Europa League place all sown up by then!

Sounds seedy. Are you suggesting Europa is a farmers' league?

 

[Bodian]

Sounds seedy. Are you suggesting Europa is a farmers' league?

'We plough and sow and reap and mow' - so we'll fit right in!

 

[warmleyseagull]

Suspect that will be close enough to what transpires.
As a (related) aside, I'm getting utterly irritated/perplexed/... by those that are claiming that we need 9 or 10 points to get into the EL.

Perhaps that is because11 is needed, barring an unimaginable GD swing. 8 enough for ECL.

 

[Machiavelli]

Perhaps that is because11 is needed, barring an unimaginable GD swing. 8 enough for ECL.

OK. I'll have a bet with you that it isn't

 

[warmleyseagull]

OK. I'll have a bet with you that it isn't

Name your price.

 

[Official Old Man]

I've got my super computer in to action, well my Dell running Windows XP with a free spreadsheet programme.
Presuming, at worst, we get a further 6 points with two home wins. Total 61 points but a better GD as long as Haaland doesn't get carried away!
Liverpool beat Leicester & Saints 68 pts
Spurs beat Brentford & Leeds 63pts
Villa beat us 57 pts
BUT
That leaves two games.
First up is on 13th May.
Villa v Spurs. Points after this game could be, Villa win. AV 60 S 63. Spurs win AV 57 S 66. Draw AV 58 S 64
One week later unlucky Villa travel to Liverpool. Here you have to add the previous weeks game so adding that result is
Villa beat Spurs. Liverpool beat Villa L 71 AV 60. Liverpool Lose to Villa L68 AV 63. Draw L 69 AV 61
Spurs beat Villa. Liverpool beat Villa L 71 AV 57. Liverpool Lose to Villa L68 AV 60. Draw L 69 AV 58
Villa Spurs draw. Liverpool beat Villa L 71 AV 58. Liverpool Lose to Villa L68 AV 61. Draw L 69 AV 59
To sum up all those complicated equations and taking a Villa victory over Brighton.
Liverpool will be 5th, well that's nailed on anyway.
Villa need 6 points from Spurs (H) & Liverpool (A). 4 points would be no good.
And then there is the unknown. One extra victory from us and that's 64 pts and THAT GUARANTEES EUROPE

It's Sunday and I'm bored

 

[The Optimist]

Perhaps that is because11 is needed, barring an unimaginable GD swing. 8 enough for ECL.

11 will only be needed if Spurs win all three of their remaining games.

 

[Official Old Man]

11 will only be needed if Spurs win all three of their remaining games.

Spurs win all three games it's 66 pts.
But then maximum for Villa, having lost to Spurs, is 60
So 61 for us, with 2 more wins, would be enough.
Villa picking up 9 points is the only thing stopping us, along with Everton & Saints.

 

[The Optimist]

Spurs win all three games it's 66 pts.
But then maximum for Villa, having lost to Spurs, is 60
So 61 for us, with 2 more wins, would be enough.
Villa picking up 9 points is the only thing stopping us, along with Everton & Saints.

That’s enough for the Europa Conference League but not the Europa League.

 

[The Grockle]

I didn't realise that 3rd place in the Europa group stages joins the conference anyway!!!

Even if we have a disappointing european debut I still think we'd have enough not to finish bottom of the group!!!

 

[nwgull]

Spurs win all three games it's 66 pts.
But then maximum for Villa, having lost to Spurs, is 60
So 61 for us, with 2 more wins, would be enough.
Villa picking up 9 points is the only thing stopping us, along with Everton & Saints.

I can’t see Spurs winning all 3. Villa, Brentford and then away at an Allardyce side fighting for survival presents a tough run.

 

[JOLovegrove]

3 wins from out last 6 games guarantees we finish at least 7th and in Europe next season.

Everton, Southampton and one other. Could be another historic night in the north east....