[Albion] Points Required for 6th Place - Us, Liverpool, Spurs & Villa Remaining Fixtures

[Shins]

Would love us to win these next 2. It’s doable for sure with our confidence and both at home. That would put us in the driving seat for top 6 without a doubt…

I think even 4 points would put us ahead of the curve. Would be disappointing if the win was against Utd and the point against Everton though.

 

[Shins]

Thanks for doing this. Really helpful to have it all in one place.
I know you're taking a punt, and have admitted it. I don't like taking a punt because it usually goes badly wrong. That said, I think we'll end up with fewer draws than you allocate. We've only had seven all season. Most -- or, more likely, all -- of our games will have both teams going for something, and that makes a clear result even more likely.

I know I felt odd doing it, like I should let things ride and not put the mockers on it. Couldn't resist looking at the connotations though!

Completely agree about the draws. I just couldn't decide which ones would go either way. Plus, saying I thought we would win a game might do exactly what I was trying to avoid above

 

[Official Old Man]

My post from elsewhere-
Villa. Wolves (A) Spurs (H) Liverpool (A) Brighton (H). 9 points if they beat us & Spurs. 63 total
Spurs. Palace (H) Villa (A) Brentford (H) Leeds (A). 9 points (lose to Villa) 63 total
Brighton. Man Utd (H) win. Everton (H) win. Arsenal (A) Newcastle (A) both lose. Saints (H) win. Man City (H) lose. Villa (A) lose. 61 total and 2 short.
In reality we need one more win from the three games against teams above us. OR if Spurs Villa DRAW against each other we can all be on 61 points and our GD is much better.
So in answer to your question, we need Villa & Spurs to draw at Villa Park and we MUST beat United Thursday.

 

[pasty]

I’m liking the look of this

 

[Triggaaar]

Villa 6/1 on top 6 looks generous

 

[Shins]

My post from elsewhere-
Villa. Wolves (A) Spurs (H) Liverpool (A) Brighton (H). 9 points if they beat us & Spurs. 63 total
Spurs. Palace (H) Villa (A) Brentford (H) Leeds (A). 9 points (lose to Villa) 63 total
Brighton. Man Utd (H) win. Everton (H) win. Arsenal (A) Newcastle (A) both lose. Saints (H) win. Man City (H) lose. Villa (A) lose. 61 total and 2 short.
In reality we need one more win from the three games against teams above us. OR if Spurs Villa DRAW against each other we can all be on 61 points and our GD is much better.
So in answer to your question, we need Villa & Spurs to draw at Villa Park and we MUST beat United Thursday.

This is based on the teams gaining maximum points. Mine is based on what I think could happen based on form and game difficulty. It wouldn't need a poll otherwise

Do you see Villa wining away at Liverpool?

 

[1066familyman]

At the risk of cursing our efforts and helping Liverpool... I don't see why people are so sure Liverpool will cruise their run in. Their season has been so up and down. They've lost to Bournemouth, Leeds, Wolves, dropped points to Palace, Everton, Chelsea (the only game in the last 7 that Chelsea didn't lose!).

They drew the previous meeting with Fulham, lost to Brentford in their last game, Villa have been in great form and may be playing for their own European futures, Leicester will be playing for survival.

I'm not so sure it's so easy a run in for them.

Exactly this. Their defending against Spurs was pure comedy. It's not the first time this season they've indulged in that style of defending either.

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

I think we'll get a minimum of 10 points from these games, but in typical Albion style they may not come in the way we expect ...

 

[jcdenton08]

Villa 6/1 on top 6 looks generous

Their form is brilliant though.

And the usual caveat applies with bookies odds in markets they can’t control or don’t have sources in (unlike horses, snooker, tennis, cricket and others) - their odds are based on punts made. They have algorithms for all this shit.

 

[Triggaaar]

Their form is brilliant though.

Which is my point.

 

[Official Old Man]

This is based on the teams gaining maximum points. Mine is based on what I think could happen based on form and game difficulty. It wouldn't need a poll otherwise

Do you see Villa wining away at Liverpool?

You have to expect Villa to win all their games in the same way we expect victories over Everton and Saints. But nothing will go to plan in reality.

 

[Sheebo]

As I think someone on here pointed out - as of 5pm next Saturday - only 10 days or so away - Spurs and Villa will only have 2 games left to play. We will have 4 (admittedly very tough) - we will have a great idea very soon what we need to do for top 7… top 6 if we wanna be a bit greedy…

 

[Machiavelli]

This is based on the assumption that Liverpool will probably finish 5th because of their favourable run in. They haven't completely turned the corner and look vulnerable, but they're much improved. 5th spot is technically in our hands with games in hand but think it'll be place too far with our remaining fixtures. The team have done amazing things this year already so wouldn't rule out something special though.

It'll still be incredible if we don't quite make it to 6th place, either a sad but still excellent 8th, or the Europa Conference League hosting our first ever venture into European football. 6th place (or 5th) and the main Europa league competition is a different ball game though. I think it would give us more chance of hanging on to one or two players than the Conference League, plus maybe being a bit more persuasive for one or two coming in. Who knows. It's certainly not important at this point when we still have so much to look forward to this season.

Todays Liverpool win was big for us in what would have been an important point for Spurs.

The run ins. Colour coded for a rough prediction.

Albion	Liverpool	Spurs	Aston Villa
4th May - Manchester Utd (H)	3rd May - Fulham (H)
8th May - Everton (H)	6th May - Brentford (H)	6th May - Crystal Palace (H) (c'mon Palace??)	6th May - Wolves (A)
14th May - Arsenal (A)	15th May - Leicester (A)	13th May - Aston Villa (A)	13th May - Spurs (H)
18th May - Newcastle (A)
21st May - Southampton (H)	20th May - Aston Villa (H)	20th May - Brentford (H)	20th May - Liverpool (A)
24th May - Manchester City (H)
28th May - Aston Villa (A)	28th May - Southampton (A)	28th - Leeds (A)	28th May - Mighty Albion (H)

Liverpool - I expect them to pick up a minimum of 12 points, taking them to around 68 points

Spurs - All is not well with them and up against an in form Palace then a crunch game against Villa. Brentford will fancy their chances and Leeds may well be fighting for their lives on the last day. They'll improve and take 7-8 points I think. Taking them to 61-62 points

Villa - The toughest run in starting with a local derby against Wolves where SURELY they can't play as badly as they did against us. They will have a point to prove. They will need a win at Wolves and at home against Spurs before the Liverpool game if they have hope of finishing 6th.The pressure will be on them big time. A win and maybe a couple of draws from somewhere taking them to 58-59 points

The biggest danger is Spurs picking up 3 wins taking them to 63 points. This would leave us needing 4 wins, or 3 wins and a couple of draws with our superior goal difference. A bit of an ask.

Albion - Really hard to predict and feel like I've short changed us with only 2 more wins. We are SO good and such a dangerous team. Utd at home is obviously winnable. Hopefully by the time we play Newcastle they have secured Champions League and we come up against them with their foot off the gas. The Villa game is a coin flip if there is something for both teams to play for. 9-10 points taking us to 61-62 points

I think 61 points will be the number with our goal difference as I fancy Spurs to lose and draw two of those games, just not sure which. Whatever happens it'll be scary, exciting and we can be proud of wherever the team finish up!

What do you reckon?

Can this become an evolving feature, because you'll now have to up our total to 63-64, which would secure a sixth place

 

[giveusfalmerplease]

guess we better start getting used to Thursday evening matches, after last night and next week. Get into Europe and its Thursdays every other week i beleive....

 

[Bodian]

On that fishy predictor thingy

 

[Shins]

Can this become an evolving feature, because you'll now have to up our total to 63-64, which would secure a sixth place

Will update tomorrow

 

[Machiavelli]

On that fishy predictor thingy

View attachment 160536

Suspect that will be close enough to what transpires.
As a (related) aside, I'm getting utterly irritated/perplexed/... by those that are claiming that we need 9 or 10 points to get into the EL.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Suspect that will be close enough to what transpires.
As a (related) aside, I'm getting utterly irritated/perplexed/... by those that are claiming that we need 9 or 10 points to get into the EL.

Why are you getting irritated by that? It’s a fact (baring a ridiculous swing of GD which simply won’t happen).

9 points from our remaining games guarantees Conference League at the very least. If Villa and Spurs draw when they play each other 9 points will be enough for 6th place and Europa League football next season.

It’s likely that we will need slightly less to get 7th and Conference League as Spurs are not winning all their remains fixtures (bar the Villa game) based on their current form. Villa are slightly more likely to win all their remaining fixtures but it’s not easy as they’ve got a local derby against Wolves who are in pretty good form themselves, last weekend apart, then they’ve got to play all 3 of the clubs in the race for 5th-8th.

 

[The Grockle]

It's in our own hands but I would feel a lot less nervous about our chances if Villa and Tottenham were to lose today

 

[Triggaaar]

Villa - The toughest run in

Although their games don't look easy on paper, I really don't like that they're at home against us for the last game of the season. That's a huge advantage to them I feel, in what could be a winner takes all game.