[Albion] Points Required for 6th Place - Us, Liverpool, Spurs & Villa Remaining Fixtures

[el punal]

Based on our record so far, 31 games played with 52 points accrued, the predicted points per game to the end of the season will be 1.67 - which equates to 63.74 in total. Alright, call it 64!

 

[Timbo]

I'm sure this has been asked a million times! If West Ham win the Conference league will they take a Europa spot next year meaning only top six will get Europe?

 

[chaileyjem]

I'm sure this has been asked a million times! If West Ham win the Conference league will they take a Europa spot next year meaning only top six will get Europe?

No. It’s an extra PL slot in the Europa League for them alongside 2 other PL teams.

 

[Taybha]

61 ? I dunno,but wouldn't it be poetic if both Villa and Brighton needed a point each to secure a top 6/7 finish thus mashing the Spuds into 8th.

I probably need to let the Southampton v Spurs result go but it's too soon.

 

[Triggaaar]

61 ? I dunno,but wouldn't it be poetic if both Villa and Brighton needed a point each to secure a top 6/7 finish thus mashing the Spuds into 8th.

Whoever was in 7th would want to win. Europa is surely a much better prize than the conference?

 

[Cheeky Monkey]

The Conference League trophy is like a cheap umbrella stand from The Range sprayed silver...or an egg whisk. We’d be better advised winning the one on the right for credibility’s sake.

 

[Taybha]

Whoever was in 7th would want to win. Europa is surely a much better prize than the conference?

I'd happily take a night out in Aberdeen if it meant Spurs missed out

 

[Triggaaar]

I can't help feeling we'll need a draw at Villa on the last day, which will be a big ask when they'll need a win.

 

[Machiavelli]

This is based on the assumption that Liverpool will probably finish 5th because of their favourable run in. They haven't completely turned the corner and look vulnerable, but they're much improved. 5th spot is technically in our hands with games in hand but think it'll be place too far with our remaining fixtures. The team have done amazing things this year already so wouldn't rule out something special though.

It'll still be incredible if we don't quite make it to 6th place, either a sad but still excellent 8th, or the Europa Conference League hosting our first ever venture into European football. 6th place (or 5th) and the main Europa league competition is a different ball game though. I think it would give us more chance of hanging on to one or two players than the Conference League, plus maybe being a bit more persuasive for one or two coming in. Who knows. It's certainly not important at this point when we still have so much to look forward to this season.

Todays Liverpool win was big for us in what would have been an important point for Spurs.

The run ins. Colour coded for a rough prediction.

Albion	Liverpool	Spurs	Aston Villa
4th May - Manchester Utd (H)	3rd May - Fulham (H)
8th May - Everton (H)	6th May - Brentford (H)	6th May - Crystal Palace (H) (c'mon Palace??)	6th May - Wolves (A)
14th May - Arsenal (A)	15th May - Leicester (A)	13th May - Aston Villa (A)	13th May - Spurs (H)
18th May - Newcastle (A)
21st May - Southampton (H)	20th May - Aston Villa (H)	20th May - Brentford (H)	20th May - Liverpool (A)
24th May - Manchester City (H)
28th May - Aston Villa (A)	28th May - Southampton (A)	28th - Leeds (A)	28th May - Mighty Albion (H)

Liverpool - I expect them to pick up a minimum of 12 points, taking them to around 68 points

Spurs - All is not well with them and up against an in form Palace then a crunch game against Villa. Brentford will fancy their chances and Leeds may well be fighting for their lives on the last day. They'll improve and take 7-8 points I think. Taking them to 61-62 points

Villa - The toughest run in starting with a local derby against Wolves where SURELY they can't play as badly as they did against us. They will have a point to prove. They will need a win at Wolves and at home against Spurs before the Liverpool game if they have hope of finishing 6th.The pressure will be on them big time. A win and maybe a couple of draws from somewhere taking them to 58-59 points

The biggest danger is Spurs picking up 3 wins taking them to 63 points. This would leave us needing 4 wins, or 3 wins and a couple of draws with our superior goal difference. A bit of an ask.

Albion - Really hard to predict and feel like I've short changed us with only 2 more wins. We are SO good and such a dangerous team. Utd at home is obviously winnable. Hopefully by the time we play Newcastle they have secured Champions League and we come up against them with their foot off the gas. The Villa game is a coin flip if there is something for both teams to play for. 9-10 points taking us to 61-62 points

I think 61 points will be the number with our goal difference as I fancy Spurs to lose and draw two of those games, just not sure which. Whatever happens it'll be scary, exciting and we can be proud of wherever the team finish up!

What do you reckon?

Thanks for doing this. Really helpful to have it all in one place.
I know you're taking a punt, and have admitted it. I don't like taking a punt because it usually goes badly wrong. That said, I think we'll end up with fewer draws than you allocate. We've only had seven all season. Most -- or, more likely, all -- of our games will have both teams going for something, and that makes a clear result even more likely.

 

[Krafty]

Those next two games, at home to Manchester United and Everton, will be vital for our run-in.
If we can 6 points from those two, it will hopefully put us in a good position and may give us more confidence for that Arsenal game.
Plus, once we face Arsenal, both Spurs and Villa will only have two games left so might provide some idea on how many points are needed to finish above those two.
However we cannot get complacent and must take it one game at a time, despite the excitement for Europe qualification.

 

[Perfidious Albion]

Too many ifs and buts in all that . The position will change every week . I would rather just cheer them on, expecting and hoping for a win every time , then see where we are at the end .
Until everything is settled we do not know what position will be required or European football. Since Man U won the EFL Cup they are the entrant to the qualifying round of the E Conference League but their place could go to another club if they finish high enough, or win the FA Cup .
It is all in the air.

 

[tronnogull]

The infuriating thing about all this is that Tottenham should have 3 points less and we should have 3 points more ! The table looks so much better then.

Not to mention 2 points more from the Palace game.

 

[Triggaaar]

The infuriating thing about all this is that Tottenham should have 3 points less and we should have 3 points more ! The table looks so much better then.

Not to mention 2 points more from the Palace game.

Or the 2 more points we should have had against Villa, or the two more against Leicester. So yeah, 9 more points would make it look a bit different.

 

[BN41Albion]

I really hope it doesn’t come down to a shoot out between us and Villa on the final day…

That'd be horrible, especially at their place and you just know the frustrating antics they'd employ

I'd like to hope that we'll have secured enough points to be clear of them by that point looking at their tough run-in coupled with the amount of games we have left, but we'll see...

 

[Arkwright]

Exciting times, for me don't worry about other teams results, destiny is firmly in our hands.
Three wins and a draw and we are home and hosed.
I'm hoping it will all be done and dusted before Villa away and we can just have a BIG party.

 

[albionfan37]

I think we’ll get 4 wins and that’ll be enough for Europe Man U win Everton win arsenal win Southampton win

 

[Originunknown]

We're better than both Spurs and Villa. With the VAR mistakes and points we've left on the table it'll be gut wrenching to miss out on the Europa League by a point or two.

 

[Bob!]

Have just done the Grimsby fishy calculator for the Top Ten.

Football League Prediction Calculator

Enter future match predictions in your chosen division and see what the final league table might look like

thefishy.co.uk

I have us 7th

 

[warmleyseagull]

62. Beat Everton and Southampton (danger match as never beaten them in PL at home and they will probably be freed from relegation shackles as already gone) then 4 from rest. Point against Man U, big one at Emirates. Arsenal will deffo have potential Title to play for even if only a mathematical chance at that stage. It may get to them, take a point there. Go for a point each at Newcastle and Villa, just so the numbers add up.

 

[Shins]

Interesting you have liverpool down as drawing home to brentford but beating villa at home!

Anyway... shame that points to reach europa will be unusually high this season, but I don't see either of villa or spurs getting more than 9 points (esp of course as they play each other which is great for us). So 11 points needed. 3 wins and a couple of draws out of 8... that'll be tough but we can do it! Might not even need that though, and Villa have liverpool too which is also great for us... lots of twists and turns yet.

Just fancy Brentford! Nothing more to it than that. Villa will likely need a result at Liverpool and that will play into their hands.